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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

When would we hit 4750..? I have a HUGE sell at 4777, I made a bit of money on it late the other night, but I fell asleep at the keyboard before I could close the order, and woke up to 4900+ Dooohhh..!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
I take what the Media report with a pinch of salt... nevertheless it was a nice rally indeed... didnt expect that - especially on the back of a Friday and a potentially volatile US session...

Other international indexes didnt do much.. so rally could be atrributed from short covers (me included)...
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I would give that media report on Lehman more weight.

It was what caused that rally.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.
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Nope bever happened,

Whiskers said:
I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do. :)
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I see how this works, you just keep pushing it out a week until you get it right.


Whiskers said:
Gold is consolidating nicely around $US800 and other metals are generally holding too and I think poised to move higher despite the USD gaining.
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Actually as it turned out, it didn't consolidate at $800.

Well at least he's consistent........................ly wrong. No wonder he's turned into a hedger.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
How is the ASX200 sitting at 4972..? What the..? Will it go down after no bailout of leyman last night..?
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This one is pretty simple. May I guys?

Every quarter, S&P calculate the market cap of the biggest 200 companies on the Aussie Stock Exchange. Each company then gets a weighting, depending on their market cap.

At short intervals during the trading day, and about 5 minutes past 4, they calculate the last sold price of each share within those top 200 companies. These prices then weigh into the index depending on the company's market cap.

At the end of the day on September 12th, 2008, after all the prices were considered, the index sat at 4972.

Pretty simple, hey? </sarcasm>

Seriously though, you sound like one very panicky trader. I know your questions are more or less rhetoric, but seriously dude - knowing the market is knowing the thought process of every single person who has access to trade the market. All we can do is use some mass market psychology (mostly technical, but some fundamental analysis) to guess what happens next. And if something we didn't factor in turns up during the period of our analysis, then our analysis may (or may not) need to change.

The answer is, try to learn about people in groups. We learn not to yell "FIRE!" in a nightclub, because we know what happens when someone does. Now go out and figure out what happens when someone yells "****, I think we borrowed too much" in a stock market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
I would give that media report on Lehman more weight.

It was what caused that rally.
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I'm no so sure,.. our market rallied some 100pts in the closing hours of trading, yet in the same time frame, international index barely moved...

If Lehman's news was the cause of the rally; then you'd think other index would have reacted in similar as well...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
I'm no so sure,.. our market rallied some 100pts in the closing hours of trading, yet in the same time frame, international index barely moved...

If Lehman's news was the cause of the rally; then you'd think other index would have reacted in similar as well...
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The out of hours S&P also started rallying at the news, some big players got on board the SPI, and others were squeezed.

Other international indices would depend on their composition, not largely financial based, then you wouldn't expect much movement on positive fundamental bank (financial sector) news, right?

Not saying that news is always the be all and end all and what drives markets intraday, but it can have a big effect and in this case, it did.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
What about good old Technical Analysys, Bollinger bands, you know, all the good stuff - what are they indicating..?
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They are indicating that it could move up, down or sideways from here:D

Mate just give it a rest we understand that you have a bad position open but we don't know for sure what will happen on Monday.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
Seriously though, you sound like one very panicky trader. I know your questions are more or less rhetoric, but seriously dude - knowing the market is knowing the thought process of every single person who has access to trade the market. All we can do is use some mass market psychology (mostly technical, but some fundamental analysis) to guess what happens next. And if something we didn't factor in turns up during the period of our analysis, then our analysis may (or may not) need to change.

The answer is, try to learn about people in groups. We learn not to yell "FIRE!" in a nightclub, because we know what happens when someone does. Now go out and figure out what happens when someone yells "****, I think we borrowed too much" in a stock market.
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Good stuff Sunder.

But invariably you get some galoot with a vendetta and not much better to do with his time than stalking you and yelling 'FIRE' or some other alarmist nonsense as below.

If only he was active in the market, rather than an armchair critic crying doom and gloom all the time... and for all we know with an altera motive.

Also, unless you are keen to loose money, it is a good idea to HEDGE your positions in some way... even if all you are trading with is your ego. :rolleyes:

PS:
ga·loot /gəˈlut [guh-loot]
  • an awkward, eccentric, or foolish person.
  • A person, especially a clumsy or uncouth one.

un·couth
  1. aarchaic : not known or not familiar to one : seldom experienced : uncommon, rare bobsolete : mysterious, uncanny
  2. a: strange or clumsy in shape or appearance : outlandish b: lacking in polish and grace : rugged <uncouth verse> c: awkward and uncultivated in appearance, manner, or behavior : rude

dhukka said:
Nope bever happened,



I see how this works, you just keep pushing it out a week until you get it right.




Actually as it turned out, it didn't consolidate at $800.

Well at least he's consistent........................ly wrong. No wonder he's turned into a hedger.
Click to expand...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
Anyone got any predictions for Mondays ASX200..? Are we really going to hit below 4500 like australianstockreport.com.au and chartchat.com.au tells us..?
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http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15sfAP.html

Bookmark this :)

Predominantly a rise in resource stocks Monday, BHP and RIO up around 9% in NY trade, big drop in US dollar spurred resources across the board, solid gains for silver, copper and gold, big jumps in the XAU/HUI, large jump in AUD vs USD, biggest gain in 6 months for EUR vs USD... perfect storm. Banks will probably keep a lid on gains though. :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15sfAP.html

Bookmark this :)

Predominantly a rise in resource stocks Monday, BHP and RIO up around 9% in NY trade, big drop in US dollar spurred resources across the board, solid gains for silver, copper and gold, big jumps in the XAU/HUI, large jump in AUD vs USD, biggest gain in 6 months for EUR vs USD... perfect storm. Banks will probably keep a lid on gains though. :2twocents
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Yeh, this slosh of institutional funds from commodities to the USD is sure to take a breather. Haven't looked closely, but Dr Copper hasn't faired too badly in the last few days, perhaps an indication of a turnaround of some sorts in broader base metals. Banks are all over the shop with this latest news.........
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ever have one of those days when you get that feeling that something just isn't quite right.

I've just realised My XAO data was corrupted, the red candle on the 4th Sept and apparently no one else did either, but when checking other scources I also found Incredible Charts corrupted back on the 5th of Aug, the low tail on the red candle.

Not the end of the world in itself, but a headache when trying to plot trends.

Well, in hindsight the abc I had around the 4th Sept certainly didn't apply :eek: ... but I'm happy with it now. :cool:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
how certain are you..?
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Jai,

Bollingers indicate a downtrend, both are pointing down on a daily and are sideways and contracted on the weekly, with a bearish bias (below ma's).

5220 resistance and 4880 support, which it has just bounced off after Friday's effort.

Overall it's clearly in a downtrend, trading well below a 150 day ma, which is also pointing down. You might get some action trading the channel between current support and resistance, but it looks risky as the index is in a definite downtrend. You'd be swimming against the current, being bullish.

Greg.

:)

xao18.gif


xaodaily.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
What about good old Technical Analysys, Bollinger bands, you know, all the good stuff - what are they indicating..?
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dude,.. you sound like you betted your life's saving on a short...

not all trades will go as planned, so if a trade does goes pear-shape, then IF you have good risk and capital management, then your loss will be minimal... take it and move on to the next trade... no point in getting all paniced and worried over it. you'll just aged yourself faster and life is too short already...

fwiw, the market is definately trading in a channel,.. a breakout of the channel could see further moves in that direction...

Monday morning could see a sharp rally as more short positions are covered. The Lehman news is starting to take substance and could push it higher, but as we're still in a down trend, expect to see heavy selling coming in on all rallies..
 
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