- Joined
- 16 February 2008
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Re: XAO Analysis
lol, that other argument is exactly what I wrote. See the conclusive paragraph. But agreed, we are not in an ordinary cycle, far far from it and one reason I throw much seasonality out the window at the moment.
White_Goodman, yes, from an economics background. That being said, short-term, T/A is FAR more useful than any form of fundamental analysis.
Wayne, don't get me started on Financial Planners. After finishing Uni and working in my field, I went on to study a Diploma of Financial Services (RG146), and let me say, recieving good results at Uni, I never failed one piece of assessment. With the diploma, I went on in my assignment advising 'clients' that property and bank equities were NOT 'low risk investments', and to perhaps write covered calls against their bank stocks if they want to continue to hold for the longer-term. I also stated voluntary superannuation contributions were not the most 'effective' and 'efficient' form of investment for a couple to make. Needless to say, I was failed, options were too risky, bank stocks and property are traditionally 'low-risk' and hence, shall therefore remain so, whilst superannuation is the golden arches of financial advice. WTF!!!!! Also needless to say, I will never complete this rediculous diploma.
Other than that, agree with everything Wayne said. Not to mention, time in the market is all well and good, whilst you are in a period of industrialization and economic boom times. What macro or micro policies can really make much of a difference to economic growth/productivity, other than perhaps technological improvements? Add in an ageing population and soaring inflation, wiping out much nominal growth, what is left for the long-term? Golden era in the West is over IMO. Time in the markets mantra may be all but over and long-term investments and stockbrokers may be replaced by active trading firms, hence, a move towards hedge funds already.
WP, last sentiment pole I looked at and the one I actually find the most useful, had more bulls than bears at last weekly release.
lol, that other argument is exactly what I wrote. See the conclusive paragraph. But agreed, we are not in an ordinary cycle, far far from it and one reason I throw much seasonality out the window at the moment.
White_Goodman, yes, from an economics background. That being said, short-term, T/A is FAR more useful than any form of fundamental analysis.
Wayne, don't get me started on Financial Planners. After finishing Uni and working in my field, I went on to study a Diploma of Financial Services (RG146), and let me say, recieving good results at Uni, I never failed one piece of assessment. With the diploma, I went on in my assignment advising 'clients' that property and bank equities were NOT 'low risk investments', and to perhaps write covered calls against their bank stocks if they want to continue to hold for the longer-term. I also stated voluntary superannuation contributions were not the most 'effective' and 'efficient' form of investment for a couple to make. Needless to say, I was failed, options were too risky, bank stocks and property are traditionally 'low-risk' and hence, shall therefore remain so, whilst superannuation is the golden arches of financial advice. WTF!!!!! Also needless to say, I will never complete this rediculous diploma.
Other than that, agree with everything Wayne said. Not to mention, time in the market is all well and good, whilst you are in a period of industrialization and economic boom times. What macro or micro policies can really make much of a difference to economic growth/productivity, other than perhaps technological improvements? Add in an ageing population and soaring inflation, wiping out much nominal growth, what is left for the long-term? Golden era in the West is over IMO. Time in the markets mantra may be all but over and long-term investments and stockbrokers may be replaced by active trading firms, hence, a move towards hedge funds already.
WP, last sentiment pole I looked at and the one I actually find the most useful, had more bulls than bears at last weekly release.