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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
XAO just about to meet the 200dma, which is sitting a touch below 6100.
Should be interesting to see what happens next week.
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are you sure about 6100? Commsec S**** software is showing a touch below 6200.... could you please confirm?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ShareIt said:
are you sure about 6100? Commsec S**** software is showing a touch below 6200.... could you please confirm?
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Depends on what you use. I have the Simple 200 MA is at 6080ish and Its already over with ease the Exponential 200 MA @ 5910ish.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Depends on what you use. I have the Simple 200 MA is at 6080ish and Its already over with ease the Exponential 200 MA @ 5910ish.
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thank you so much... i use the simple as well and Comsec software is showing around the 6200 area.... first touch of the 200ma mmm... usually a pullback
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
That's alright you have till tomorrow arvo, about 2 O'clock i reckon. ;)
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Uncle Festivus said:
Missed it by 45 min there TH, not too shabby though :D.
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Yes sorry Uncle. My crystal ball indicator was slightly out yesterday. After I gave it a good polish it told me that the entry was @ 2:00 on the first lower high. ;)

When your manipulating the market you gotta take your opportunities hey!:D
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Yes sorry Uncle. My crystal ball indicator was slightly out yesterday. After I gave it a good polish it told me that the entry was @ 2:00 on the first lower high. ;)

When your manipulating the market you gotta take your opportunities hey!:D
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The big boys don't seem to want to hold on over the week end though. Wonder if the Yanks will do the same tonight, or if they get some really bad news it might go up again ;):D. My winter shorts look mighty fancy :eek:.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
"But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.

"From here on, I find it hard to expect much more out of the market," said Robert Hook, portfolio manager at SG Hiscock & Co. "One risk is a reality check in terms of profit announcements when we get into the reporting season."
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080516/19/1qtu3.html
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
"But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.

"From here on, I find it hard to expect much more out of the market," said Robert Hook, portfolio manager at SG Hiscock & Co. "One risk is a reality check in terms of profit announcements when we get into the reporting season."
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080516/19/1qtu3.html
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Dunno about that. US investors have largely ignored the diabolical trend in earnings. Looking deeper into the psychology of the market, folks seem to think - yes, earning are crap, but this is the bottom (in earnings) and we will buy now, ready for the next great earnings season.

Investors can collectively delude themselves for a long time, particularly with Bubblevision doing a number on them.

My personal opinion is that earnings reality will bite... but not yet.

Other lagging factors will have to come into play first.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
Opinions on the market?Some will be correct for part of the time while the rest will be wrong.So what about this opinion-
"But some fund managers are wary about the market's heady gains.
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And some will believe a throw away line from some fundie that may or may not be quoted in context.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Have to say I agree with Wayne, delusional is the word for the times!

Good for some swing traders, but there is sure to be some falling knives in the future, just waiting for a few more bulls to come out of the woodwork! They are slowly building up momentum!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
US investors have largely ignored the diabolical trend in earnings. Looking deeper into the psychology of the market, folks seem to think - yes, earning are crap, but this is the bottom (in earnings) and we will buy now, ready for the next great earnings season.
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No, they know there is no great earnings season coming soon. They know the analysts' forecasts are impossibly optimistic, that the lay-offs and bankruptcies and the real bite in the recession are still ahead.

But they really have no choice. Cash and treasuries are negative real, inflation is 8% or more, so if you have to keep your funds in USD then equities may at least give some protection against inflation. You can be sure anyone big who is buying is backed up by hair-trigger program selling, or big option plays.:(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just had a quick look at XAO. Its RSI is sitting at 71.84, anything over 70 is considered overbought and it's at the top of the Bollinger Band. A sell off might be in the wings here. Will commodities lead the charge down?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Is anyone able to post a chart of the XAO or XJO without BHP, RIO, SGB or WPL included ie 'situation' stocks? Interesting to see what the rest of the market is doing?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
Is anyone able to post a chart of the XAO or XJO without BHP, RIO, SGB or WPL included ie 'situation' stocks? Interesting to see what the rest of the market is doing?
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Bear for life ey, Uncle?
Keep up the good work :D

I dont know the answer to your question but I do recall I think 2006 when the XAO rose ~20% and the return without resources was about 3-4%.
So its definately not a new phenomenon.

Just imagine where we would be now if the banks were running! :D ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Actually despite the common belief the bull market in the XJO/XAO has been a Banks/XFJ lead bull not a Materials/Commodity producer/Miners rally.

The fins have tracked with or slightly above the XAO in % terms while the XMJ has LAGGED up until late last year. As a sector it has only just taken over the bull in relation to the XAO.

Who would a thought we haven't even had a materials lead bull. Yet ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
Just had a quick look at XAO. Its RSI is sitting at 71.84, anything over 70 is considered overbought and it's at the top of the Bollinger Band. A sell off might be in the wings here. Will commodities lead the charge down?
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How can you seriously analyse the XAO as a whole? It's kind of like analysing India and Brazil as if they were one market. You've got energy and materials going gangbusters, financials way down and utilities and consumer sectors wobbling. It's kind of like herding cats!:rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Bear for life ey, Uncle?
Keep up the good work :D

I dont know the answer to your question but I do recall I think 2006 when the XAO rose ~20% and the return without resources was about 3-4%.
So its definately not a new phenomenon.

Just imagine where we would be now if the banks were running! :D ;)
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Huh, how's that bearish, just a simple question, just like davo8 ie are the big constituent indexes relevant for detailed analysis anymore, or should we just look at the sub indices for a clearer big picture?

Even the XJO is mostly influenced by the XTL components ie a handfull of 'situation' stocks and so doesn't give an accurate picture of the whole market or sentiment?

It's good for market commentators to sprout the XAO charging ahead, but what is the market really doing if you take out the mover stocks?
 
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