XAO Technical Analysis

Dr Doom · 15 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Your equation makes a very big assumption,

You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,

What About the others in BRIC? Brazil, India and Russia?

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there

The wealth does not filter down to that level my friend. As per above post, the reason why China is exporting junk to the world is because they pay peanuts for wages ie no purchasing power, barely enough to live by, in a polluted, corrupt system. Unemployment is high, lots of empty apartment blocks. The China story is a sham.

nizar · 15 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wintermute said:
Now I realise that this chart is of the Dow and not the XAO, but since our market seems to have a bit of an obsession with what the US does (although if you plot the XAO against the DJIA over the last 5 years there is actually quite a decoupling) I thought I'd post it.

Exactly every1 thinks we follow the US markets but if you look in 2005 the DOW was flat and XJO returned about 20%. Fair difference.

CanOz · 15 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

surfingman said:
298,444,215 peoples spending power is are hard to replace

I have a friend in China a factory manager is on $125 US a month, she said its an average wage for that sector, not much disposable income over there with the large gap in demographics of wages.

125 USD per month, are you kidding....or is she? A factory manager in China would pull in at least 600 USD per month. If you want i can get you the national average.

Cheers,

surfingman · 15 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

The national average would be interesting to know if you can get it, thats what she told me 125US a month for managing a factory not sure of size.

theasxgorilla · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Exactly every1 thinks we follow the US markets but if you look in 2005 the DOW was flat and XJO returned about 20%. Fair difference.

I'm sure there is a correlation, but I would call it moderate...not strong. During the period you refer to it was low.

Kimosabi · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Your equation makes a very big assumption,

You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,

What About the others in BRIC? Brazil, India and Russia?

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there

What you have to realise is the US economy is nearly half of the Worlds economy.

That's why when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

And let me give you the tip, the US is developing a nasty bout of pneumonia.

YOUNG_TRADER · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Kimosabi said:
What you have to realise is the US economy is nearly half of the Worlds economy.

That's why when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

And let me give you the tip, the US is developing a nasty bout of pneumonia.

Thanks for the tip, allow me to return the favour,

Be careful when betting against the US consumer, they've proven to be very resiliant in the past

Atomic5 · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

I heard a report saying that the US market comprises only 25% of the Asian export market, and that since the possible collapse of the US dollar seemed an issue last year, especially during the May-Sept period 2006, that the European markets have looked at steps at minimising their vulnerability to the US market, should it capitulate.

IF the two recent panic dips could be seen as Yen based rather than US consumer market based .... then perhaps the rest of the world might be able to get on with it without them, should the US go under.

But that's IF. The last two panics sure seemed US based.

I also can't see that the US Fed will allow this bull run to end until late April 2007, and not at least until the Chinese raise rates. Im also basing this on last year, when the market faltered in Feb but then rallied hard until the end of April before the Chinese rate rise which arrived 1st May.

(Thats my opinion but I always get it wrong)

theasxgorilla · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Atomic5 said:
I heard a report saying that the US market comprises only 25% of the Asian export market, and that since the possible collapse of the US dollar seemed an issue last year, especially during the May-Sept period 2006, that the European markets have looked at steps at minimising their vulnerability to the US market, should it capitulate.

I'd agree with this...if you go to Europe and buy stuff you'd be surprised how much is being manufactured locally. Spain, Turkey, Italy, eastern Europe. You don't get the inundation of Chinese imports that you get here.

Atomic5 · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
I'd agree with this...if you go to Europe and buy stuff you'd be surprised how much is being manufactured locally. Spain, Turkey, Italy, eastern Europe. You don't get the inundation of Chinese imports that you get here.

Gorilla

Dont forget Germany, who competes with China in the 'Penny Market' goods area (including food, electrical, some IT, furniture, cars etc.) in that German goods are as cheap, only made with German technology, which is better quality. They even ousted a discount US chain who wanted to move into the German market but failed to gain a foothold.

Note also there are not that many Asian cars in Europe, even though there are a LOT of small cars. Even Mercedes makes a 2 cylinder which is just everywhere.

And if you remember it was GM who wanted to buy FIAT when FIAT was in trouble 2 years ago. FIAT rejected the offer and their share price has since doubled, looking to triple, having regained it's EU market share, while GMs lot has looked a lot worse.

There might be a lesson there.

That said, there are still a lot of Chinese products on the EU market, and there must still be enough risky interdependence with the US because they all go into shock, even more than the Australasian markets, at the mere hint of a US recession.

Atomic5 · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Someone just called the US dollar a "DOG" on Bloomberg.

Kimosabi · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Atomic5 said:
Someone just called the US dollar a "DOG" on Bloomberg.

Source???

Dave31 · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

are we seeing a friday sell off here?

Sean K · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Kimosabi said:
Source???

Golly, there are so many analysts calling the US $ a dog or simliar, we hardly need a quote. This has been known for some time. Well, I thought it had anyway.

Atomic5 · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Kimosabi said:
Source???

Im looking for it on the internet, and/or waiting for for them to rerun the interview.

Bernard Lo on Bloomberg was interviewing someone about the US $ meltdown (that again) and he just blurted out that [someone - I didn't catch the name] called the US $ a "dog".

Sean K · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Dave31 said:
are we seeing a friday sell off here?

Punters taking strength to clear positions before the uncertainty of the overnight action.

Kauri · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Double, double toil and trouble,
Fire burn and caldron bubble.

Kauri · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Re last post...

Triple witching is for the US markets tonight...

bean · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Triple Witching-Us markets watch closely
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=BSTK&section=indices

tech/a · 16 March 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Ever thought that this "May" not be the top?

I think there is evidence that it may not be yet.
I havent the time to post up the "evidence" today but will do so over the weekend.

While not yet conclusive it is compelling--well I think so.
Against the tide of opinion.

--6415-6435--

Yeh yeh I know I'm a nutter.

XAO Technical Analysis

Dr Doom

nizar

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

surfingman

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Kimosabi

YOUNG_TRADER

Atomic5

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Atomic5

Atomic5

Kimosabi

Dave31

Sean K

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Atomic5

Sean K

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Kauri

E/W Learner

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XAO Technical Analysis

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Problem solved... next bubble.

Problem solved... next bubble.

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