XAO Technical Analysis

[Atomic5]

Re: XAO Analysis

Dead rubber cat falling from sky tommorrow ....

... or later, or not.....

Is the cyclic nature of the market no longer recogniseable because it is so tampered with?

I think it was either Bloomberg or CNN that did a spot on naked short sellers today, just after the incredible DOW close, about how you can either buy or sell %1000 of a company, ie: stocks that don't exist.

what the .....?!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Dow up 0.5%, S&P500 up 0.7%, the XAO up 1.8%. Mmmm something out of balance here. Either the US markets are lagging or our market is overconfident.

Next critical level for XAO is the old bounce back high between 5870 & 5890, another 1% away. The local climate is looking good, just don't know how much the US is going to hold it back.

The US financial oligarchs are firmly in control, but for how long?.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is something out of balance, the XAO has had some froth skimmed till January, the Dow is sitting at Novembers levels.

But then again UF you were spouting GM would be bailed out by the Fed last night just prior to their 3Q profits , not to mention hysteria on the lower end of the leverage market getting squeezed causing all the domino's to fall instantly!.

What pie is youre finger in Festy, or are you going to be noisy for weeks to come.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Dow up 0.5%, S&P500 up 0.7%, the XAO up 1.8%. Mmmm something out of balance here. Either the US markets are lagging or our market is overconfident.

I just think our economy is at a different stage to the US. We're generally pretty solid, low jobless rate, interest low, good company profits, and people can just afford to buy a house. Dramatic rises in rates will effect us, but the next change might be down. US recession will eventually effect us but not for a while.

 

[Nick Radge]

Re: XAO Analysis

It was futures expiry today. If you look closely you will see many stocks had very high volumes which is the arb's unwinding their positions. If you also take a look at the opening you will see some massive parcels - many from ABN Amro Morgan.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Follow the Yen. It's the leading indicator at the moment.

$0.02

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting to see that the stock ASX only managed to put on 1/4% today....

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is something out of balance, the XAO has had some froth skimmed till January, the Dow is sitting at Novembers levels.

But then again UF you were spouting GM would be bailed out by the Fed last night just prior to their 3Q profits , not to mention hysteria on the lower end of the leverage market getting squeezed causing all the domino's to fall instantly!.

What pie is youre finger in Festy, or are you going to be noisy for weeks to come.

Hello 'doingkinkystuffinrubber'

No, I wasn't talking literally last night, but it's a possibility in the future as there is some conjecture about the strength of their balance sheet. There was talk of bankruptcy not so long ago, & I don't see them selling many more cars, less so in a possible recession maybe. Got a finger in the house loan business too - a good combo.

Domino's falling instantly, no I didn't say that - it will take time; you have heard of derivatives?

My pie is a gold plated cash pie.

What's your pie made of these day's? Any predictions?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: XAO Analysis

Cheers Festy,

My coffee's had some froth skimmed, but considering its nearly full and was empty at the start, it was long overdue .

How far the band unwinds is anyones guess, certainly many pigs have had their heads in the trough of late. Its my sneaky suspicion that the little ones who got a leg up to reach the trough will squeel first......I'll start to worry when the big ones stop picking at their bones and the trough's empty.


As for the predictions on the noise, wouldn't have a clue

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: XAO Analysis

I just think our economy is at a different stage to the US. We're generally pretty solid, low jobless rate, interest low, good company profits, and people can just afford to buy a house. Dramatic rises in rates will effect us, but the next change might be down. US recession will eventually effect us but not for a while.

We aren't much different to the US at all, they've got very low unemployment, low interest rates, good company profits etc. NSW, VIC aren't far from Recession. If it wasn't for the commodities boom Australia would probably be in recession already.

Now with the US looking like it's going into recession and the US Consumer's ATM drying up, consumer spending, housing and business investment will start drying up, that means less demand for goods from China, which then means less demand for our commodities and commodity prices going down.

This then means that unemployment goes up and all those people who bought their over-priced assets can't pay off their mortgages and credit card debt. This then means that Housing and share prices start coming down because people have to sell their shares/houses to try pay off the debts.

The only thing we don't have that the US has is an over-supply of housing and that's about it. It won't take much to turn the Australian economy on it's head and the Achilles heal is most people have way too much debt.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes it's a simple equation Kimosabi, so I wonder why it's not being understood?. Australia is too reliant on being the worlds quarry; then again, we have stuff all else to give them.

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: XAO Analysis

Isn't the fact that we do have something to sell, (commodites) a good thing? At least we have something to prop us up and ride things out.

Saying that we would be in a recession without the commodities boom is like saying we would be naked if we didnt have our pants on! We have them and that is the salvation to get us through the other market pressures.

Forgive me if i am over simplifying things please.

 

[wintermute]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now I realise that this chart is of the Dow and not the XAO, but since our market seems to have a bit of an obsession with what the US does (although if you plot the XAO against the DJIA over the last 5 years there is actually quite a decoupling) I thought I'd post it.

I wish I didn't look at this this morning actually, as I've been tense all day as a result... even two glasses of wine hasn't helped relax the shoulders... I know I should just get over it, but I've been stressing about whether I should have sold more... conflicted at the moment, because I feel some of my holdings could be ready to take off any time (wishful thinking I suspect) so don't want to sell them down.....



Basically I'm just looking at patterns here, and it could be nothing, but if we follow what happened last may, then expect that drop to 5400 to start real soon now

Tony.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes it's a simple equation Kimosabi, so I wonder why it's not being understood?. Australia is too reliant on being the worlds quarry; then again, we have stuff all else to give them.

Tourism. Where is you national pride man???

 

[Seaking]

Re: XAO Analysis

The APPT perhaps?

"Aussie Plunge Protection Team"??

I've called them the "Aussie Pattern Painting Team"
For the last few weeks they have been busy painting triangles and flags to lure us in and then pounce on the breakout and beat it to a pulp.. Today they seem to have changed tactics and used their considerable technical talents and deep pockets to fill some gaps... What a team!!!

 

[coyotte]

Re: XAO Analysis

As well as Nick's explanation ,

Don't know if anyones noticed on their charts -- BUT
IMO some of the XJO stocks have some very bullish signals from yesterday.

BHP --- some GAPS up there that need filling ??
JMB --- forming a Ascending Triangle ??
ALL -- Broke out of a Ascending Triangle into a possible Straddle ???
ZFX -- Forming a Eq- Triangle from yesterday ? and a nice GAP to fill.


This Correction , if it is one, may not play out as simple as most of us are assuming .
After all it's a correction in EW analysis --- other schools may have different view

Cheers

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: XAO Analysis

We aren't much different to the US at all, they've got very low unemployment, low interest rates, good company profits etc. NSW, VIC aren't far from Recession. If it wasn't for the commodities boom Australia would probably be in recession already.

Now with the US looking like it's going into recession and the US Consumer's ATM drying up, consumer spending, housing and business investment will start drying up, that means less demand for goods from China, which then means less demand for our commodities and commodity prices going down.

This then means that unemployment goes up and all those people who bought their over-priced assets can't pay off their mortgages and credit card debt. This then means that Housing and share prices start coming down because people have to sell their shares/houses to try pay off the debts.

The only thing we don't have that the US has is an over-supply of housing and that's about it. It won't take much to turn the Australian economy on it's head and the Achilles heal is most people have way too much debt.

Your equation makes a very big assumption,

You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,

What About the others in BRIC? Brazil, India and Russia?

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there

 

[coyotte]

Re: XAO Analysis

Your equation makes a very big assumption,

You assume that reduced consumption in the US = Reduced buying of Chinese Exports = Reduced Commodity Prices,

What About the others in BRIC? Brazil, India and Russia?

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there

But if the world's biggest market does a Humpty Dumpty --- How is Asia going to fill the shortfall of orders?


Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there

They can only afford the domestic consumption because of income from exports.

Export market goes kerplunk, domestic consumption goes kerplunk also.

 

[surfingman]

Re: XAO Analysis

But if the world's biggest market does a Humpty Dumpty --- How is Asia going to fill the shortfall of orders? Cheers

298,444,215 peoples spending power is are hard to replace

Also China does have domestic consumption now you know, A hell of alot of Chinese are buying Fridges, Microwaves, TV's even cars, alot of domestic demand there.

I have a friend in China a factory manager is on $125 US a month, she said its an average wage for that sector, not much disposable income over there with the large gap in demographics of wages.