XAO Technical Analysis

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

whole thing depends how you have decided to trade/invest and what gives you exit and entry signals

I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.

Has any one??

They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.

Has any one??

They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.

agree TH agree - far too much behind the action but........., keep hearing that some of the funds like them

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

keep hearing that some of the funds like them

Yeah? could you imagine the investor presentation.

"Yes we think we can invest your 200 million and beat the market, we have a great system. Its call a MA cross over."

They would roll out the door laughing.

 

[insider]

Re: XAO Analysis

17 & 34 weekly?

This is what I have: just crossed (blue and green lines). Last cross, in opposite direction, was around June/July 2003.

Cheers,
GP

Hey guys I need clarification... What is the EMA 17 and the EMA 34? What is the difference between the two?

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey guys I need clarification... What is the EMA 17 and the EMA 34? What is the difference between the two?

from commsec's tech analysis info:

An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a security's pricing data, volume data, or a combination of both. The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in price. A moving average fits this definition of an indicator. Moving averages are examples of trend following, or "lagging," indicators. These indicators are superb when prices move in relatively long trends. They don't warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e. rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly.

Simple Moving Average
The Simple Moving Average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the most recent n intervals of time (or "bars") and then dividing by n. For example, a 21-bar moving average references the closing price of a security over the past 21 bars. The indicator sums all 21 closing prices and divides by 21, which produces the average price over the past 21 bars. The Simple Moving Average gives equal weight to each bar.

Exponential Moving Average
Some market technicians believe that more weight should be attributed to more recent price action. These analysts may prefer to use the Exponential Moving Average because it does just this. An exponential (or exponentially weighted) moving average is calculated by applying a percentage of today's closing price to yesterday's moving average value.

For example, to calculate a 9% exponential moving average of a company, first, we would take today's closing price and multiply it by 9%. We would then add this product to the value of yesterday's moving average multiplied by 91% (100% - 9% = 91%).

The only significant difference between the various types of moving averages is the weight assigned to the most recent data. Once this "weighting" scheme has been determined, it is held static over the range of calculations

 

[insider]

Re: XAO Analysis

from commsec's tech analysis info:

An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a security's pricing data, volume data, or a combination of both. The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in price. A moving average fits this definition of an indicator. Moving averages are examples of trend following, or "lagging," indicators. These indicators are superb when prices move in relatively long trends. They don't warn you of upcoming changes in prices, they simply tell you what prices are doing (i.e. rising or falling) so that you can invest accordingly.

Simple Moving Average
The Simple Moving Average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the most recent n intervals of time (or "bars") and then dividing by n. For example, a 21-bar moving average references the closing price of a security over the past 21 bars. The indicator sums all 21 closing prices and divides by 21, which produces the average price over the past 21 bars. The Simple Moving Average gives equal weight to each bar.

Exponential Moving Average
Some market technicians believe that more weight should be attributed to more recent price action. These analysts may prefer to use the Exponential Moving Average because it does just this. An exponential (or exponentially weighted) moving average is calculated by applying a percentage of today's closing price to yesterday's moving average value.

For example, to calculate a 9% exponential moving average of a company, first, we would take today's closing price and multiply it by 9%. We would then add this product to the value of yesterday's moving average multiplied by 91% (100% - 9% = 91%).

The only significant difference between the various types of moving averages is the weight assigned to the most recent data. Once this "weighting" scheme has been determined, it is held static over the range of calculations

Cheers TF... thanks for clarifying this for me... I hope the recent findings paint a clearer picture of where the market is heading 4 all...

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.

Has any one??

They are big time lagging signals. Surely you don't need a MA cross to know that we have been in a nasty market.

I mainly use the MA to confirm a trend so I can scalp some points... generally i use 10WMA crossing either 240WMA or 480WMA depending on the scale I use (5 minutes to 1 second)... Success is about 70% or so for around 10 points... but not all cross overs are tradable... things I look out for are slope of the 240WMA, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI...

A good scalp could yield me 50+ points, but on average, I aim for just 10 points.

Attached chart was of today's action. 5 minute scale with multiple MA. The white arrows indicated breakouts of prices from the MA "rainbow" - technically I should have waited for the cross-over, but I usually pre-empt and go in first - as it's clear that MA Crossovers are laggy.

From 10am to 4pm, there were 2 good scalps and 1 that was questionable...

I think this is loosely based around the GMMA method.

Stop losses of about 10 points is a must with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio is acceptable for scalping (for my style of tradign anyway). The aim is to win more than loose.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

I mainly use the MA to confirm a trend so I can scalp some points... generally i use 10WMA crossing either 240WMA or 480WMA depending on the scale I use (5 minutes to 1 second)... Success is about 70% or so for around 10 points... but not all cross overs are tradable... things I look out for are slope of the 240WMA, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI...

A good scalp could yield me 50+ points, but on average, I aim for just 10 points.

Attached chart was of today's action. 5 minute scale with multiple MA. The white arrows indicated breakouts of prices from the MA "rainbow" - technically I should have waited for the cross-over, but I usually pre-empt and go in first - as it's clear that MA Crossovers are laggy.

From 10am to 4pm, there were 2 good scalps and 1 that was questionable...

I think this is loosely based around the GMMA method.

Stop losses of about 10 points is a must with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio is acceptable for scalping (for my style of tradign anyway). The aim is to win more than loose.

hi korrupt one:

but while this system "works" it appears that is only so because you are trading before the cross - if you wait for the actual cross the move is pretty much over which confirms TH's point that ma systems lag too much to work

 

[Nick Radge]

Re: XAO Analysis

I am yet to see a trading system that works with MA cross overs.

Has any one??

TH,
Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.

Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.

Easy money or easy commissions?

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

TH,
Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.

Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.

Easy money or easy commissions?

Surely you're kidding, how could you sell something like that with a clear conscience?
Fair enough selling a crossover system (not that I'd use one) but without some sort of money mangement is pretty poor.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

TH,
Apparently (not apparently, actually) some Macquarie advisor's were on the sales route last year flogging a MA crossover system...a 22 week and 35 week system. Nothing else. No position sizing. No stops. No nothing. 22 week over, buy. 22 week under, sell. Best thing since sliced bread. Easy money.

Needless to say that its been spanked for about 6-months now and their client who employed me to run it for them has thrown in the towel.

Easy money or easy commissions?

It's easy to see how a lot of folks in instos can end up with a pretty poor view of technical analysis.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

not too promising one would think...

ISM Non-Manufacturing tumbles to 41.9 Versus 54.4
VERSUS 53.0 EXPECTED.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

not too promising one would think...

ISM Non-Manufacturing tumbles to 41.9 Versus 54.4
VERSUS 53.0 EXPECTED.

That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary.

But don't worry, China has a lot of people, they all want flat screen TV's, they need our resources, they are immune from global forces, China China China, could we get a China smiley Joe?

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

Go China - Go China - Yeah - Yeah - Yeah

Were all freakin doomed @

Hang on, weve got India and Russia too

Thats one serious tumble on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

could we get a China smiley Joe?

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't worry... the PPT will come and save the day....

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary.

They must have hoped that by slipping it out 65 mins early no-one would notice it
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

That's a really nasty number. Below 50 means contraction, but a reading below about 44 is recessionary.

Something else to mull over on a quiet night..
Regressing quarterly ISM Non-Manufacturing over GDP growth gives a
72.8% correlation since the series began in 1997. Should the current reading
stick for the next two months, GDP growth should fall by 1.0% in the first
quarter.

MMMmmm
..........Kauri

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Stop it you guys, you're all a bunch of recessionista pessimistas.

Reality is no fun, everyone close your eyes and repeat after me, China! China! China!

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Stop it you guys, you're all a bunch of recessionista pessimistas.

It's not all bad news...

US bond yields have continued to fall, with fresh lows on the ten-yr bond currently being traded at 3.537% as the market prices in a 90% chance of a total 75 bp in rate cuts for the March and April meetings.

Cheers
............Kauri