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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Buffettology said:
I dont get it.

I think it may go up tomorrow and the next day. But a fall is most definately on its way in the coming weeks.
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What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kash said:
What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?
Click to expand...

I think it is more a case that your Joe average investor now feels a bit like A-rod when he takes on the Fed (as is Federer, not the Federal Reserve). He has taken a helluva a beating over the last six months and he expects to take a helluva beating in the immediate future.

Just put it down to that funny little feeling deep inside - and I'm not talking about love here.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

So as the last 3 lines of my last post indicates, you guys already know. There isn't going to be a US crash.
And I've been checking the US markets each morning. Dummy!

I know the P/E's look good. But I want to know how much of that profit is linked to the excessive debts Joe Average has racked up not just here but all over the world? Which ofcoarse flows through China and commodities.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

How much of this economic boom is debt driven is the key ...

What if there's slowdown in China => Slowdown in Aus => Falling dollar => rising unemployment => 500 billion private net foreign debt?

Will our local house prices keep on rocketing in that case?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

is there anybody who can tell me why today our market is up, especially rio and bhp?
thanks
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That is euphimism for fund managers pushing up prices to dress up their portfolio performance at the end of the month. Correct Nick ?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
But I want to know how much of that profit is linked to the excessive debts Joe Average has racked up not just here but all over the world? .
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Just heard the Tricomm CEO on ABC radio state that their margin loan book has decreased from $2b plus in June 2007 to $950m in January 2008. This has been the direct result of margin calls over the six months. Ouch!! So the leverage boom in Aussie securities has been substantially 'unwound' over the last 6 months it would seem. Multiply that by X and there are a lot of 'mums & dads' licking their wounds out there.

Ah the joys of debt...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
Yes, we've entered a new cycle. Its called "Spin and Rinse" and comes before "Hang Out to Dry"
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do you mean you don't think that bhp will increase the offer?
one more question what will happen if bhp really increase the offer, i think rio will drop anyway even after takeover, what do you think?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That is euphimism for fund managers pushing up prices to dress up their portfolio performance at the end of the month. Correct Nick ?
Click to expand...

I was being facetious. You however have made a very valid point that I hadn't considered. A down night in the US may see us play some catch up tomorrow.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nick Radge said:
I was being facetious. You however have made a very valid point that I hadn't considered. A down night in the US may see us play some catch up tomorrow.
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please tell me, i am quite new, i don't have any idea about takeover and the consequence of that,thank you very much
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kash said:
What do you think will be the contributing factor of this coming fall? Rate rise? Reporting seasons not meeting expectations? World market uncertainty?
Click to expand...

What bushman says. A rate rise could trigger it off also, but if the US remians strong, we should remain relatively strong also. Once sentiment turns for the worst there also, I think we will face a dramatic fall.

Everybody keeps talking about P/E ratios, remember, they dont take into account profit. Companies over the last several years have been dramatically decreasing costs, hence, greater profit margins. Therefore, P/E ratios can now be slightly higher than long run historical ratios and the company stil be the same "value".

So I think its more your last option, world market uncertainty. Nobody even knows if the US IS in recession yet, remember economists have predicted 15 out of the last 5 recessions! It will really all have to unfold and the figures released until we see the true state of things and where we are headed. I for one, beleive this will be bad, with possible stagflation and hence a HUGE problem for the US, which of course will feed through to the rest of the world.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

zhang66777 said:
please tell me, i am quite new, i don't have any idea about takeover and the consequence of that,thank you very much
Click to expand...

hi zhang,

Generally the taken over goes up and the taker goes down. in this case bhp goes down, rio goes up.

Thats what normally happens, but of late anything can happen and it's just too risky betting on what-ifs. wait for a trend and go with it...

Really you should be discussing this over on the bhp or rio thread. This thread is for discussing the xao in general.

Good luck with your trades
 
Re: XAO Analysis

WOW, the DJ has fallen over 1% on the back of a 50bp cut! Interesting to see how this pans out! I think if it closes down, the ASX is going to be in panic mode at open!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Buffettology said:
WOW, the DJ has fallen over 1% on the back of a 50bp cut! Interesting to see how this pans out! I think if it closes down, the ASX is going to be in panic mode at open!
Click to expand...
I smell PPT involvement atm. (looking at price action/intraday support)

Don't be surprised by some green by the end of the session.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
PPT doesn't have to do all that much; support, it get it moving and traders take over... brilliant!
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Wayne, is the 'PPT' a term now used by jaded Bears to explain the Bulls taking over the running? Seems the PPT is picking up a few cheap shares at the moment.

(disclaimer: I have no idea about the stock market, but am prepared for the 'real' crash)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Wayne, is the 'PPT' a term now used by jaded Bears to explain the Bulls taking over the running? Seems the PPT is picking up a few cheap shares at the moment.

(disclaimer: I have no idea about the stock market)
Click to expand...
There are certainly times when this is true, and could even be the case in this instance. Just my opinion.

Disregard if appropriate.
 
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