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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

A 50 BP cut will provide the stimulus needed for a recovery as it has all been long overdue in the US.
BHP and RIO reports should be steady and inline with expectations. Hikes in Iron Ore and Coal will also be a bonus.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

Just because the market was in a bull run for 4 1/2 years, doesn't mean it will continue to do so forever.

The "smart" heads on Wall street thought that house prices don't fall. All the data during the past 6 months has proven them wrong. Consequently, they got stuck.

The Nikkei peaked at about 40000 in 89, 90. Now it's 13000. They've had close to 0 interest rates ever since.

It took the Dow from 1965 till 1983 to clear 1000 points properly.

My personal opinion is, too many people are "scared" to miss out on the next big bull run.

Consequently we get the pack buying and selling and the increased volatility we've had.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stockwhizben said:
(with the banks getting smashed, goodbye superannuation returns! whats with the safe steadfast cba of late. hmmm)

i agree with the comment about after tonight the US has nothing left to look forward to apart from more dismal earnings and poor economic data

any comments on my prediction that all ords could rocket once bhp and rio report? up until today i thought this would happen now not so sure after Woolworths got done over even after reporting big numbers.
if the bhp numbers arent massive or show signs of slowing the all ords will plummet i believe.

i also believe the fed will cut by 25 for the reason their market is still holding up and has not been a catastrophic fall and they will think they have done a fair bit with the 75 earlier

ps. Nyden. Have you bought back in on anything or you out? the index stock?
Click to expand...

I'm holding out on the index funds; waiting for the markets to cease this volatility, or just buy in a little closer to the distributions date

Still out, I keep wanting to buy in ... but then I'm reminded by days like this :p:

I don't think we'll rocket, then again I don't know where we're headed in any term :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This BP cut was meant to be 75, but they did it early. Can see them following up with another one so soon. I think it will be a token 25 BP because if they do nothing I think we no where the market is going.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

All this talk of rate cuts, and the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate immediate posterity, has me thinking of the future. Keynes and his disciples have so indoctinated the higher echelons of the capitalist structure that they must not let the economy fall into recession no matter what the circumstances. Yet everything I have read about markets is that operate most efficiently when left to reach supply and demand equilibrium by themselves. So the quesion is why does the Fed continue to intervene in the markets and not allow them to purge themselves of the excesses of various debt fuelled asset booms? Is it because Bernanke and Co are the standard bearers for the Baby Boomers, the generation who wanted it all and damned be the future?

Does business truely want or need Fed intervention? With the exception of the housing sector and the Wall Street wizards who have profited handsomely from the glut of cheap debt awash in the market, the answer must be a resounding 'no'. Sound businesses with strong balance sheets are in the best position to ride out a natural cycle of economic contraction, safe in the knowledge that they have taken the measures to protect shareholder wealth for use when markets return to a natural growth cycle. Yet, as we have seen, when a bubble bursts, all market participants get savaged in the flight to liquidity. How then do these companies feel when the Fed intervenes time and time again with swads of printed money?

This is a question for the ages. I read an interesting anecdote in an article the other day. Apparently when Jean Baptiste Colbert, the finance minister for King Louis XIV of France in the 17th century ('who was a fanatic government intervener under the Mercantilist economic philosophy'), asked a group of businessmen what he and the King could do for them and their industries, they vehemently replied, "Laissez-nous faire!" Leave us alone!

There are numerous profitable Australian companies who would be shaking their collective heads when faced by Bernanke's continued efforts to provide those who least deserve it with a liquidity boost to simply replace the money they have evaporated with their financially geared business models. This is madness and it will come back to bite future generations of investors as the excesses of the bubble economy remain locked in the balance sheets of the greedy bankers becoming fat off valuations they know can only be propped up by further liquidity.

I have given up boozing and smoking as I know that I will pay in the future for the whims and folly of today. When will the US capitalist machine, and its small Australian and Japanese love children, cure itself of its addiction to cheap US dollars? When will punters accept the natural cycle of supply and demand? The two go hand in hand in there is not the generational will power to accept lower returns today for the good of wealth creation for future generations. So we all sweat on 50 bp to save the day, unsafe in the knowledge that the toxicity of malignant debt will fuel the asset bubble and stock market crash of tomorrow.

Worrying times....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
All this talk of rate cuts, and the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate immediate posterity, has me thinking of the future. Keynes and his disciples have so indoctinated the higher echelons of the capitalist structure that they must not let the economy fall into recession no matter what the circumstances. Yet everything I have read about markets is that operate most efficiently when left to reach supply and demand equilibrium by themselves. So the quesion is why does the Fed continue to intervene in the markets and not allow them to purge themselves of the excesses of various debt fuelled asset booms? Is it because Bernanke and Co are the standard bearers for the Baby Boomers, the generation who wanted it all and damned be the future?

Does business truely want or need Fed intervention? With the exception of the housing sector and the Wall Street wizards who have profited handsomely from the glut of cheap debt awash in the market, the answer must be a resounding 'no'. Sound businesses with strong balance sheets are in the best position to ride out a natural cycle of economic contraction, safe in the knowledge that they have taken the measures to protect shareholder wealth for use when markets return to a natural growth cycle. Yet, as we have seen, when a bubble bursts, all market participants get savaged in the flight to liquidity. How then do these companies feel when the Fed intervenes time and time again with swads of printed money?

This is a question for the ages. I read an interesting anecdote in an article the other day. Apparently when Jean Baptiste Colbert, the finance minister for King Louis XIV of France in the 17th century ('who was a fanatic government intervener under the Mercantilist economic philosophy'), asked a group of businessmen what he and the King could do for them and their industries, they vehemently replied, "Laissez-nous faire!" Leave us alone!

There are numerous profitable Australian companies who would be shaking their collective heads when faced by Bernanke's continued efforts to provide those who least deserve it with a liquidity boost to simply replace the money they have evaporated with their financially geared business models. This is madness and it will come back to bite future generations of investors as the excesses of the bubble economy remain locked in the balance sheets of the greedy bankers becoming fat off valuations they know can only be propped up by further liquidity.

I have given up boozing and smoking as I know that I will pay in the future for the whims and folly of today. When will the US capitalist machine, and its small Australian and Japanese love children, cure itself of its addiction to cheap US dollars? When will punters accept the natural cycle of supply and demand? The two go hand in hand in there is not the generational will power to accept lower returns today for the good of wealth creation for future generations. So we all sweat on 50 bp to save the day, unsafe in the knowledge that the toxicity of malignant debt will fuel the asset bubble and stock market crash of tomorrow.

Worrying times....
Click to expand...

The only reason the Fed continues to intervene in the markets and lower rates is to hope that soon the credit markets will return to normal. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON. Without functional credit markets even the most prudent banks/businesses face difficulty raising funds to continue their operations.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kengaikl said:
The only reason the Fed continues to intervene in the markets and lower rates is to hope that soon the credit markets will return to normal. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON. Without functional credit markets even the most prudent banks/businesses face difficulty raising funds to continue their operations.
Click to expand...
I'm still trying to work out why a privately owned institution is allowed to manipulate the money supply and monetary policy of an entire country...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

50bp cut by the feds

SYCOM trading around 5610 prior to announcement.

Jumped to 5670 in 2 minutes.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What the market wants the market gets. Benny must be worried. I didn't expect it but hope this will steady the market. Or does this say that the situation worst and theres more come
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stockwhizben said:
my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.
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US indices are now selling off hard from their highs. SPI is 5606 just before US close.

Looks like ASX open will be flatish to down. Failing that, it will be up. (Professionals hedge folks :D)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stockwhizben said:
my prediction today is up 100 pts at the open, then a fall off over the rest of the day to settle up but not as high. after the 75 cut last week this happened and i bought in at the open and got stung big time with the drop off as the day wore on.
Click to expand...

The dow is now off 3 points so we could be in negative terrritory again today
 
Re: XAO Analysis

rico01 said:
The dow is now off 3 points so we could be in negative terrritory again today
Click to expand...

Try 63 :p:

Unfortunately, I think we're headed for more red today; aside from the rate drop, nothing's changed. We were negative in sentiment yesterday, we'll be negative today.

I'd prefer our markets remain stable though, I want the RBA to up our rates :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Try 63 :p:

Unfortunately, I think we're headed for more red today; aside from the rate drop, nothing's changed. We were negative in sentiment yesterday, we'll be negative today.

I'd prefer our markets remain stable though, I want the RBA to up our rates :)
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Oh dear. The PPT just got washed down the US's crappy plug hole. The "Little Aussie Bleeder" will slash it's wrists today.... bring more mops and buckets!

Time to dig that bunker out the back yard.....

P.S. Is the world heading for a "barter" economy once the funny paper and e-money becomes worthless?


AJ
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nah think we will be going higher. If I had to guess. A close higher than the low put in the morning.

The end of the world is now priced into to market. What I see getting us into trouble now is a breaking up of commodities. I'm looking to fade any more bad news as a tactic from here. But at the same time not getting carried away with any up side. The chances of a retest of the low of 5500 are high I just don't think yet.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Nah think we will be going higher. If I had to guess. A close higher than the low put in the morning.

The end of the world is now priced into to market. What I see getting us into trouble now is a breaking up of commodities. I'm looking to fade any more bad news as a tactic from here. But at the same time not getting carried away with any up side. The chances of a retest of the low of 5500 are high I just don't think yet.
Click to expand...

Got no idea where we are headed today.

I don't believe we are priced for the end of the world yet, but we are someway there.

O/S markets are no where near it yet, imo.

More carnage to come once the afterglow from Benny's present fades and the kids playing with their toy realize it is a cheap made in China that breaks.....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
The end of the world is now priced into to market.
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Salient point TH.

As the market is a forward looking beast, just when is the worst factored in?

The Bears have been proclaiming that we had worse and worse to see, while the Bulls have continued to come out with cup half full solutions based on stronger for longer, global decoupling from the US theories.

Just where are we now? :confused:
 
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