XAO Technical Analysis

Aussiejeff · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Salient point TH.

As the market is a forward looking beast, just when is the worst factored in?

The Bears have been proclaiming that we had worse and worse to see, while the Bulls have continued to come out with cup half full solutions based on stronger for longer, global decoupling from the US theories.

Just where are we now?

I can see a lot of Bears sniffing piles of Bull**** on the ground, but no sign of the horny critters themselves...

Bushman · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MR. said:
On the Giant Drop at dream world!

Brakes come on soon! Don't they? (-2.8% first 35 mins)

The smell of metal on metal is wafting through the air. Here is the rapid ascent... to be followed by a sell off like yesterday?

Very entertaining and enlivening a dull day at the office.

powerkoala · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ok.. this is a joke right?
after we down 2.8% now we go up to green area ?????
rally for 160 points in 1 hour ?
what the $^#@@# is wrong with our market ??

Trembling Hand · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
ok.. this is a joke right?
after we down 2.8% now we go up to green area ?????
rally for 160 points in 1 hour ?
what the $^#@@# is wrong with our market ??

Nothing wrong with this market my fury little friend.

What you are seeing is a wash out. And Squeeze.

finnsk · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
What you are seeing is a wash out. And Squeeze.

Please explain

Kauri · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ASX20 seems to be leading the way... can guess why of course..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Buffettology · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

finnsk said:
Please explain

Squeeze, now the market has turned around, those with shorts forced to buy the stocks to hedge their bets, pushing the prices even higher.

finnsk · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Buffettology said:
Squeeze, now the market has turned around, those with shorts forced to buy the stocks to hedge their bets, pushing the prices even higher.

Thank you

Kauri · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
ASX20 seems to be leading the way... can guess why of course..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Only a guess of course..
Asian share markets in generale have moved into the black following after hearing rumours/stories that MBIA have strengthened their capital position by 1.5 BLN USD and plan to raise additional capital to help maintain their triple-A rating with the ratings agencies.
Cheers
..........Kauri

josjes · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

You are right Kauri.
See news just coming:
http://www.rttnews.com/sp/breakingnews.asp?date=01/30/2008&item=135

Gary C. Dunton, MBIA Chairman and CEO, said, ”We have now strengthened our capital position by $1.5 billion, including the recently completed $1 billion surplus notes offering, and we intend to raise additional capital in the coming weeks.”

MBIA said its comprehensive capital plan, which would improve position by over $2 billion, has been recognized by Fitch Ratings, and has been affirmed Triple-A ratings with a stable outlook. Standard and Poor's Ratings Services, has also affirmed the company's Triple-A ratings with a negative outlook. The company said it would continue to work with Moody's Investor Services, which has placed MBIA's ratings on review for possible downgrade, as the company's capital strengthening plan progresses.

MR. · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

For those who didn't know, here is some data with regards to the 1987 crash and now which I have put together. Hope some find it interesting:

Attached is a report from channel 9 before the US crashed in 1987. Dramatised but "Don't Panick" the All Ords just dropped 80 or 3%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ_AJodDDXI

In the month leading up to the 1987 stock market crash the DOW had dropped 11%
In the month leading up to the 22/1/08 the DOW had dropped 9%

On the day of the US market crash 19/10/1987 (before US markets opened and crashed) Hong Kong closed down 11%, Japan was down 3% and Australia was down 4%.
On the 22/1/08 Hong Kong closed down 9%, Japan down 6% and Australia down 7%. Then the FED's 0.75% saved the day is my opinion.

In the 1987 crash the US dropped 22%, Australia 25%, Japan 15% and (Hong Kong 33% a week later.)
Two days after the crash (the bounce) the DOW had gone up 16%, Hong Kong didn't get a bounce, Japan went up 10% and Australia had gone up 3%.

Three weeks later the DOW was 15% down, Hong Kong was 45% down, Japan was 18% down and Australia was 45% down (from the day before the crash).

Note: The All Ord's over the last two corrections ie: 16/8/07 and 22/1/08 bounced back hard and what an easy way to make money your thinking right?.... But in 1987 after a 25% fall in one day the All Ord's only came back 3% before falling further to a total of 45% three weeks later. It didn't bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^AORD&a=749&b=16&c=1987&d=10&e=11&f=1987&g=d

In the three weeks from the 1987 crash the DOW and the All Ord's erased a years share market growth. The DOW and the All Ord's have already erased a years growth now, without “the US crash.”

Damage done all the same. Perhaps there is time to put the mattresses out under the windows!

rja2439 · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

All I DEFINATELY know is that Tracey Grimshaw has been on tv for too long. Gotta love that big doo of hers back then haha

kengaikl · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's. World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.

habs · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

just a rambling thought...

In a year or year and a half when the whole sub prime thing is really out in the open and over and done with, the market just might wake up to just how cheap some stocks have become in australia. The amount of value out there atm is just staggering in some of the smaller stocks, im not going to name them, but there are plenty that are hovering at unrealistic current prices, purely because of market instability at the moment.

Buffettology · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kengaikl said:
All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's. World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.

I think its more about sentiment than fundamentals.

kash · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?

kengaikl · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kash said:
Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?

UP!

Aussiejeff · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kash said:
Now the big question where will the market go tomorrow?

Away?

sam76 · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

off? :scratch:

Buffettology · 31 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
Away?

I dont get it.

I think it may go up tomorrow and the next day. But a fall is most definately on its way in the coming weeks.

XAO Technical Analysis

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Trembling Hand

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finnsk

Kauri

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Aussiejeff

sam76

Buffettology

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