XAO Technical Analysis

Aussiejeff · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
What's with the sudden recovery?
Dare I say we're in for a green day?

I wish a trend could just be defined, bear or bull ... sick of this undecided fence nonsense :

It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....

More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....

Nyden · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....

More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....

Hmmmm, yes it is too much of a gamble

Today for instance, as someone else mentioned on another thread; is today the last buying opportunity, or the last selling opportunity?

Lest we forget, the last 'expected' rate rise was followed by a decline! A rate cut of 50bps is already completely factored in. If we get 50bps, it's business as per usual (which could mean further declines), if it's 25 - we get a massive sell off. 75? And they have very little room for continued drops...

Nyden · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
It's not as secure as sitting on a fence....

More like a high wire over the Grand Canyon I'd say.....

Oooooops, ASX has fallen off the wire!
Did we really perceive Bush's address to be that bad?

kengaikl · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Hmmmm, yes it is too much of a gamble

Today for instance, as someone else mentioned on another thread; is today the last buying opportunity, or the last selling opportunity?

Lest we forget, the last 'expected' rate rise was followed by a decline! A rate cut of 50bps is already completely factored in. If we get 50bps, it's business as per usual (which could mean further declines), if it's 25 - we get a massive sell off. 75? And they have very little room for continued drops...

What do you mean by factored in? i reckon the markets are so volitile now that its pretty much impossible to factor in anything. Even if they get a 25bps cut if the market wants to go up it'll probably make up some excuse ie smaller cut means smaller problem.

MR. · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Re: attached file.

The file is from last nights ABC news.
The straight lines in Red, Black and White were added by me.
The graph is the movement in the price of Australian shares less inflation over the past 80 odd years.

Observation by added RED line: Between Approx 1930 and 1980 (50 years) Australian shares as an average was equal to inflation.

Observation by BLACK and White lines: Is the range in the long term trend as I understand it.

The average P/E of companies at the moment are about 12.
So whats going on? How much of this spike is due to mining exports?
How much is due to technology? (automation)
How much is due to debt boosting profits for the short term?

comments anyone, additions?

Aussiejeff · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Oooooops, ASX has fallen off the wire!
Did we really perceive Bush's address to be that bad?

We have seen a real "de-coupling" of WORLD markets vs the US market since the sub-prime fiasco came home to roost. IMO I don't think the rest of the world has any confidence left in the vaunted US Plunge Protection Team.

Anyway, come to think of it, aren't the world financial markets driven by an army of rogue traders shuffling Trillions of funny money around the planet - rather than government officials? So, maybe non-conformance of the markets with the expectations of the "norm" will become the norm?

And gawd help world financial markets if the engine room (China) runs out of coal in less than 5 days..... maybe that looming possibility is giving some folk (including meself) the jitters.

AJ

kash · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I do not think the fed will drop rate soon after such a big drop. Hopeful there is a little bounce tomorrow to take some profits before everyone gets disappointed with the Fed decision

chewy · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

thats crossed my mind too kash - also that Aus could increase rates at same too - surely we'd drop some then. But then again the Fed may well cut (which could actually make their decision look less like it was saving the market and more like it is to fight off recession) and Aus could leave on hold (due to global issues and banks own 0.1-0.2 increases) in which case we would probably rally hard. Meh I've held through all this so far may as well hold and see.

Lucky_Country · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

August last year we saw a sharp drop followed by a big bounce and that was the start of the bear market.
Over the last week we have seen a sharp drop followed by a big bounce does this mark the start of a new bull market ?

Nyden · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Lucky_Country said:
August last year we saw a sharp drop followed by a big bounce and that was the start of the bear market.
Over the last week we have seen a sharp drop followed by a big bounce does this mark the start of a new bull market ?

August didn't signal a bear market? At least, I don't think it did. August was just a correction, we were still in a bull ... we reached highs even?

Some would argue we're entering a bear now.

I'm still undecided :

korrupt_1 · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

aarrrghh... who is feeling the frustration with the AU markets?!!!

VIX at all time highs again... This is just madness... DJ up 1.5% last night, yet we close 2.5% down... wtf?!!! even the Japs were up 3% today?!!

I asked my magic 8 ball... "are we in a bear market?" it replied "maybe"...

sonofabitch!!

wayneL · 29 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
aarrrghh... who is feeling the frustration with the AU markets?!!!

VIX at all time highs again... This is just madness... DJ up 1.5% last night, yet we close 2.5% down... wtf?!!! even the Japs were up 3% today?!!

I asked my magic 8 ball... "are we in a bear market?" it replied "maybe"...

sonofabitch!!

Is there a VIX on the Aussie market?

'Cause CBOE's VIX is 10% of its highs @ 27.8%

kash · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well america up last night lets see if we can manage some green

Nyden · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Are we going to start zig-zagging here again? 130pt drop, followed by a 106 gain (could very well go to 130)

Did yesterday merely reveal to us that a lot of gamblers have bought in as of late? The slightest things trigger a downward spiral?

Oh, how I missed the days of nice steady gains over a year

I feel that we may get some selling pressure towards the end of the day though ... anxiety ahead of the fed, as that could really go either way; no matter what the drop. Are people "hoping" for a 75bps? Could be red if they "only" get a 50bps ...

Trembling Hand · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Did yesterday merely reveal to us that a lot of gamblers have bought in as of late? The slightest things trigger a downward spiral?

Yesterday was the usual option market makers turning on their sell BOT 2 days out from expiry.

>Apocalypto< · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Yesterday was the usual option market makers turning on their sell BOT 2 days out from expiry.

great point TH and with the current nerves in the market that created the panic.

Who said the option markets have lost all there Liquidity!

sails · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
great point TH and with the current nerves in the market that created the panic.

Who said the option markets have lost all there Liquidity!

LOL - they provide plenty of liquidity when it suits them.

Heard they were fined for failing to provide a market last week - but the fines are probably only pocket money so nothing to stop it happening again when they prefer long lunches (eg 10am to 4pm) to providing option quotes

korrupt_1 · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Serriously, what's the go with the SPI today?

DJ up last night... and we are down AGAIN? Expected a small fade, but not into the red!!! This is so familiar now...

Also Asia is up for today so far...

Are we in oz truly down under and turn everything upside down?... argh!!!

As far as I am concerned... the Aussie SPI is totally @#$%^&!!!! It's truly a 3rd world index....

Nyden · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

And we're in the red!

Pretty remarkable fall from the 115+ we were at just hours ago...
We'll probably bounce a little, then go deeper into it :

& Korrupt; I think we need to fall much further, do our markets really reflect the current risk? We had a run of panic-buying, & now everyone is sobering up & realising "crap I shouldn't have bought".

Our markets have soared over the past few years, & a lot of our stocks are valued on the premise that the good times will never end, we have so many stocks with a P/E ratio of 40 ... frankly, in this market I feel that even a ratio of 10 is too high!

Too many jumping on the wagon too late in the game ... which increased share prices based on nothing

But, the reason for today is probably some rumor going around, or fear of what the US will do tonight based on the whole rate thing. Aussies have just lost their taste for risk, I know I have.

Edwood · 30 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nothing to worry about imo, just filling the gap from last nights close to set up for a move higher

XAO Technical Analysis

Aussiejeff

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

kengaikl

MR.

Aussiejeff

kash

chewy

Lucky_Country

Formerly known as ijh

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

korrupt_1

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

kash

Nyden

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Trembling Hand

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>Apocalypto<

20.03.2012

sails

korrupt_1

Nyden

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Edwood

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XAO Technical Analysis

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