Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

As a matter of interest has anyone seen a chart that looks like the recent xao with all the consecutive down days and following up days? It looks very unusual.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

There are a few similar situations back along the XAO into the '90s, although with not so many consecutive down days.

GP
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We're seeing this bounce phase exactly as expected. As I stated in that analysis I preferred the 'jagged' bounce which is known as a zigzag. A zigzag has three leg; up, down, up again. So we're now seeing the first 'up'. The US has dropped overnight, so quite possibly we've seen that first 'up' leg finished and expect a drift lower again to complete the second 'down' leg. This could take a week or two but basically we're in a directionless zone with continued downside bias.

There are two patterns at work; one small and one larger and more sinister one. Both have the ability to take prices to 4800 but the fact that this bounce has gone a little higher than what is 'typical' suggests that the smaller pattern will only have enough energy to only just take out the 5200 lows this time around and not get to the 4800 level.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Holy crap, Oliver is calling the market to go lower. Run for the hills!! :eek:

"If it is a bear market, it is quite normal to have quite sharp rallies," Dr Oliver said.

"These bounces can be quite sharp - five to 10 per cent - then the downturn resumes again.

"I think we will see the market come back down to the lows we saw on Tuesday in the next few months and possibly go a bit lower."
Click to expand...

Important to point out the IF it's a bear...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?

Does it mean all the constituents are doing exactly the same thing ?
Are the constituents even the same ?

The bullish percent is a bottom up view
( without the bottom there is no top down , there is nothing ! )
Click to expand...

This is a great chart Motorway - the Bullish Percent chart at this post, have not seen a better display of sentiment/psychology - whatever it is called. I don't imagine it is intended as a stand-alone tool, but what a great adjunct to other tools. Going through my head now are all sorts of possibilities for using something along these lines on an intra-day basis ...bottom-up sentiment indicator, how handy would that be for SPI traders etc?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

With all the panic & hysteria that follows severe market falls on the XAO such as now and the recent fall in August, I was asked by a friend today whether I had re-entered the market yet. This was my email reply -

"Not yet but soon. The market will either shoot up or become volatile sideways, which is the way I’m leaning.

I intend to cover both scenarios and get in at the next higher low if it shoots up.

If the market stuffs around as I think it will, (just look at the DOW JONES down another 173 points Friday night) I will take a nibble at the next move down. I doubt it will hit the 4800 suggested by Nick Radge and Colin Twiggs,
although I hope it does.
Hopefully it will fall to the 5200 low or the 4800 mark, either way doesn’t really matter. The market will do what it wants.

I’ll nibble at the half tail position (ala Dr Ehlder) if I’m quick enough, as long as the stocks I want are purchased at low risk.

Then add more when a previous high is broken.

The downtrend line has already broke but I am suss that it may turn down a bit more, perhaps a retest of the trendline who knows.

Hope to be almost fully in by the time when price makes a higher low

I see further confirmation that the trend has resumed when the 10e crosses the 30e and this date is always the same date as to when the Macd crosses up thru zero (this cannot be an accident)

Not game at this stage to pyramid any stocks until volatility settles. Pyramids can ruin a good trade if not perfectly timed

And nothing is perfect in this caper."

The reason I post this is, I am only interested in timing the re-entry into the general market.
Can this be improved upon without the inevitable risk of picking bottoms?

I'm not really qualified to be giving friends/traders/investors advice so would be interested to here from more experienced traders on a specific re entry
plan.

cheers austek
 
Re: XAO Analysis

very simplistic and no more than has been posted already... the way I am looking at xjo at the monent... can change as quickly as ..
Cheers
.......Kauri
 

Attachments

  • xjo_260108.gif
    xjo_260108.gif
    10.3 KB · Views: 168
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
The cat must have had springs on it's feet to bounce this high!!!

I was expecting a bit of resistance at 5600 and particularly 5700, but that came and went in a blink of an eye.

A retest of 5700 followed by a good bounce off that would give me confidence that 6000 is on the card. Failure of 5700 could see a retest back to 5600.

Where it is now, is slightly below 5800. 7 trading session ago, that zone saw much consolidation, so one would expect 5800 to be good resistance level that should contain further increase.

Conditions are overbought and I'm thinking of some spec shorts back to 5700. Anyone with me on that?
Click to expand...

Nice analysis korrupt_1

Hell of a double bottom on the chart. a retrace of 38 - 61% of the current move would be acceptable. See what happens on the US on Monday night.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Prefer roasted Japanese Whaler myself......
Click to expand...

Vote 1 whale meat!

Funny thing i saw on the news. they interviewed a fella in Japan who ran a whale meat biz. He told the reporter " they're just big fish I don't see the big deal" I love that this is his area of expertise and he thinks they're fish! :D

ok back to topic, i think down on Tuesday, no hang on maybe up! :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

austek said:
The reason I post this is, I am only interested in timing the re-entry into the general market.
Can this be improved upon without the inevitable risk of picking bottoms?
Click to expand...

Presumably you are trading off charts?

What time frame? If you are not trading intraday then the answer to your question is no. If you are not trading weekly then the answer to your question is no. My opinion only of course.

ASX.G
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Vote 1 whale meat!

Funny thing i saw on the news. they interviewed a fella in Japan who ran a whale meat biz. He told the reporter " they're just big fish I don't see the big deal" I love that this is his area of expertise and he thinks they're fish! :D

ok back to topic, i think down on Tuesday, no hang on maybe up! :D
Click to expand...

For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............


XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.

Focus
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............

XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.

Focus
Click to expand...

ROFLAO!! clever comeback (...as long as we don't really do that to anyone).

As for XAO, one more trading day to go in the US before we can start a more up to date guessing game again, I'm watching with interest.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

From last weekend:
Whiskers said:
Since the uptrend from 03 seems to be broken, I'm also going with a change of trend from the August low, because that seems to be the signal that things were going to slow down a bit. So far I think the new trend for maybe the next few months or year, until the US settles down, will be more sideways with a good chance of being slowly up.


In summary I am leaning toward the XAO coming back to around 6,000 shortly... if it goes the other way and we get a weekly candle below the 100 fib, then I will have to conceed a bear market... maybe.

Ok bears come and get me... if you can! :D
Click to expand...

So far so good. The XAO came back as expected, not quite 6,000, but near enough. On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet. :)

There is another technical reason to support my assumptions, but I will keep that one to myself for now, just in case I've made a complete balls-up :eek: ... except to say that it's about proportion. :cautious:

I'm not expecting much retracement in the next week, ie I will be very surprised if it goes below 5,700. Provided Bush gets his finger out and delivers the 'rescue package' asap fwiw and gives a good state of the union address and the Fed doesn't dissapoint the market by reneging on another cut, :mad: I expect the market to trend in the post Aug 07 low SDC and push up beyond the post Oct high SDC in the coming weeks... just to disprove a down trend and confirm consolidation or continuing slower Bull run.
 

Attachments

  • New Picture.jpg
    New Picture.jpg
    84.9 KB · Views: 331
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
From last weekend:


So far so good. The XAO came back as expected, not quite 6,000, but near enough. On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet. :)

There is another technical reason to support my assumptions, but I will keep that one to myself for now, just in case I've made a complete balls-up :eek: ... except to say that it's about proportion. :cautious:

I'm not expecting much retracement in the next week, ie I will be very surprised if it goes below 5,700. Provided Bush gets his finger out and delivers the 'rescue package' asap fwiw and gives a good state of the union address and the Fed doesn't dissapoint the market by reneging on another cut, :mad: I expect the market to trend in the post Aug 07 low SDC and push up beyond the post Oct high SDC in the coming weeks... just to disprove a down trend and confirm consolidation or continuing slower Bull run.
Click to expand...


This chart looks like a bowl full of uncooked spagetti
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
This is a great chart Motorway - the Bullish Percent chart at this post, have not seen a better display of sentiment/psychology - whatever it is called. I don't imagine it is intended as a stand-alone tool, but what a great adjunct to other tools. Going through my head now are all sorts of possibilities for using something along these lines on an intra-day basis ...bottom-up sentiment indicator, how handy would that be for SPI traders etc?
Click to expand...

Try this one

visualize what the demand and supply curves are doing


The Bullish % never has stayed at the bottom long ( days ! )

( so what should We be doing )

On relative strength (CRS )
as a guide

In flood tides
An anchor is likely to have the best .

Make sure You don't buy anchors

ie DEAD WEIGHTS

A key word on reversal patterns atm
is "DELAYED ENDING"

The bullish percent prev extreme low reading was oct 97

motorway
 

Attachments

  • All Ordinaries Index 27th cobweb Bull.gif
    All Ordinaries Index 27th cobweb Bull.gif
    44.6 KB · Views: 296
Top