XAO Technical Analysis

dhukka · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

TMC19 said:
Or it could be what has been posted previously - 01 type follow up.

To state that the market has never rebounded and continued higher on it's first try is a very general statement and I'd question the accuracy.

I know the circumstances are always different in each situation (and we are supposedly in a bear market now) but didn't we bounce back from the first subprime fallout in Aug this year to a record high without too many 'sucker rallys'

I think that with the reporting season in Australia upon us and the US Gov/Fed working in tandem and doing all they can to support their economy there is a fair chance this downward spiral could correct itself.

But hey who knows, I'm certainly being very cautious at the moment but am a bit more optimistic than I was a week ago.

The statement that the market has never rebounded to new highs on it's first try is specific to those situations that I posted on my blog. That is where the market fell more than 20% from it's highs. I only have data back to 1983 and I cannot find 1 instance where it has defied the trend I pointed out. Of course, there is a first time for everything.

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wow... what an nice rally right from the open... we're now 100 points up from the open... just amazing!!

Been wanting to scalp a few points on shorts... but just when I'm about to put an order through.... i chicken out thinking this rally has intent and wants to be somewhere higher today....

Any chance of profit taking at EOD? Might be a chance to scalp some points on the down side... Then again, I might take my money and play blackjack at the casino... better odds i'd say!

powerkoala · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wow, this is a surprise xao up 3% to 5778 now.
will this be the turning point for a new wave ?
or super dead cat bounce while waiting for us action to solve the problems?

Kauri · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

As alluded to earlier in another thread maybe the spectacular collapse of the markets earlier this week was because over 3 days Soc Gen fire-sale style closed out $8Bln of its rouges positions.. not because of an impending implosion of the worlds economy as feared, and Uncle Ben also bought it and dropped an emergency 0.75% for the wrong reasons.. I need to rethunk my views on XJO, gold, et al, (carries already rethunked... )... Plan B...
Cheers
........Kauri

powerkoala · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

well, this is really big bounce.
almost breaking 5800 area.
will it stay at this level ?
any chartists opinions for this new trend?

Sean K · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
well, this is really big bounce.
almost breaking 5800 area.
will it stay at this level ?
any chartists opinions for this new trend?

Bloody hell, Aug 07 revisited. I thought 'it was different this time'. LOL

It's not a 'trend' yet, IMO. The cat may still be dead.

>Apocalypto< · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I think a lower high will confirm if the market will keep going. I am waiting to see what happens on the next downward test.

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS PEOPLE!

MS+Tradesim · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Although I didn't call this outcome, check out the charts I posted here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=249100&postcount=2384

and here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=249837&postcount=2458

What we're seeing now is not unprecedented. Whether it continues remains to be seen.

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The cat must have had springs on it's feet to bounce this high!!!

I was expecting a bit of resistance at 5600 and particularly 5700, but that came and went in a blink of an eye.

A retest of 5700 followed by a good bounce off that would give me confidence that 6000 is on the card. Failure of 5700 could see a retest back to 5600.

Where it is now, is slightly below 5800. 7 trading session ago, that zone saw much consolidation, so one would expect 5800 to be good resistance level that should contain further increase.

Conditions are overbought and I'm thinking of some spec shorts back to 5700. Anyone with me on that?

GreatPig · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Around 5800 would be the target for that double bottom showing on the chart.

GP

J.C. · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone have any thoughts of how the long weekend will affect this last hour of trade? People buying more? selling more? neither? Since we miss a day of trading where the world markets do not... whats the history here?

powerkoala · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wow 5851 ...
this is madness or preparing for australian day celebration ??

cordelia · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Has anyone seen a chart that drops down continuously and then goes straight back up.......

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone have a sense of de-ja-vu??? this looks kinda like what happened in Aug???!! It's rallied 700pts in about 1.5 days??!!!!!!!!

Whiskers · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Bloody hell, Aug 07 revisited. I thought 'it was different this time'. LOL

It's not a 'trend' yet, IMO. The cat may still be dead.

The cat is still alive and kicking... I promise.

BTW FWIW on the weekly XAO this week is now a huge hammer, the parabolic SAR on the daily indicating buy and I'm still happy that on fundamentals it was too over-done... courtesy of that little 'rouge trader'.

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The SPI is offically rigged!!!!!!!

100 points in 30 minutes?!!!!!!!! Has that ever happened before?!!!

All up 250 points in from 10am to 4.30pm

MR. · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

No one likes being left behind! So we all must have jumped back in. Worries, recession? "What are you talking about"

If all are setting stops and moving them up as the market increases would this mean the market can turn again and plumit real quick?

moXJO · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks to telstra my ADSL has been out the last 2 days, so have been missing all the fun. I have to say I was not expecting such a sudden bounce. Will RBA's decision to lift rates have an effect?? Seems like madness at the moment, unless the media has decided to downplay a US recession now. Surely it was not all based on the rouge trader.

Seems like the media barons control the markets, talk about the ultimate way to ramp....
Simple chart patterns playing out again at least

Edwood · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
The SPI is offically rigged!!!!!!!

100 points in 30 minutes?!!!!!!!! Has that ever happened before?!!!

All up 250 points in from 10am to 4.30pm

more worryingly moves like these make Aus look like a 3rd world market

Nyden · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I wish there was some actual commentary here : We've had 3 days straight of fairly significant gains, even at the end of the week of the long weekend, yet - no one's calling a bottom? Any T/A insight? Some form of pattern?

I keep wanting to re-enter (at least, temporarily), but am concerned of what this rally actually 'is'. I keep thinking the day I enter, we'll plummet 10% the next day :

Forget the bottom, have we once again hit the 'top' of this rally? Is the next resistance level 5900 or 6000?

I guess I want a crystal ball! Darn, I wish a bottom could be called without hindsight :

XAO Technical Analysis

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