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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Forgot to mention the three things the 1929 Dow chart, the 1987 and 2007 XAO all have in common is a head and shoulders pattern brought them all tumbling down. Something to remember after a long run-up. Cheers.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

In normal times "good" stocks go UP
and "bad" stocks go DOWN....

The same as

Just like in normal times the Police lock the bad guys up and let the good guys
go about their business...

However in times of panic and mayhem... Curfews are imposed and everybody out and about is suspect......

Good people even can get shot........

(up to each and everyone to define what good IS for their own purpose)

Bullish percent has hit the lowest reading since 1992 (as far back as My data goes)

it is at 6.6% -----------> That means that only 6.6% of all stocks in the ALL ORDS are on a 2%x3 simple buy signal (It is up to you to determine if a buy signal is a BUY signal)

The seasons of the mkt follow one another..........

It is WINTER that is both an ending and a beginning........It is in Winter that the shortest day comes and goes......... (NOT spring)

The bullish % is a calendar of the market seasons

moving from solstice to solstice always to and fro across the equator...........
Always being contrary, always hinting that this too will pass

That everything that matters is cycles

What is the SUN as far as the mkt is concerned?

sssh.....smart money...

In Winter there is struggle for survival
and also FALSE DAWNS

Too early emergent growth is in danger of late frosts

BUT Just as the shortest day comes early in Winter
So the bottom in a mkt comes early too...

It is not about how long to new highs
It is about (when looking to go long)
How soon the bottom is passed...

And where is the new real emergent growth...

6.6% is an extreme low reading
But
The mkt moves in it's own Time

In Smart Moneys Time..

Which is the same Time all the P&F charts of all the stocks in the XAO
Move, or not as the case may be...



motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Shafting traders is profitable for sure
Click to expand...
And yesterday during the big drop, the call warrant I'd had a day or two before spent the whole day with the offer nearly twice the price of the bid. I didn't check what the price really should have been, but I think the bid was way too low - not nice for anyone who might have still had some and was wanting to get out.

Understandably, there were no trades of that warrant during the day.

GP
 
Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
Mkts trend ...........Mkts reverse

Sentiment is important in recognizing technical positions

trends culminate with one sided sentiment and a uniformity of trading methods

nothing succeeds like success until it doesn't

With everyone long the same stocks
It is No mystery what gets sold down


Sentiment can be measured by various indicators

Best to look past the behaviour of cap weighted indexes or proxies
and examine whole mkt behaviour

Here is a total mkt 2% bullish percent chart............

The software plots every stock on the ASX as a 2% x 3 P&F chart

Then plots the % that are on a simple P&F buy signal as a 1 x 3 P&F chart

That will oscillate between 0 and a 100

with 30%, 50% and 70% important levels

Also relevant is the P&F buy and sell signals themselves..
( Any reassertion on a P&F chart should not be ignored )


Bull Confirmed - Bull confirmed is, just as it sounds, the most bullish signal the index emits, giving traders a green light to take on multiple long positions with confidence. In the bull confirmed phase, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of X's on its right edge, and this column must have surpassed the next column of X's over to the left by at least one square. Since a market that is in bull confirmed mode is upwardly trending, directional indicators such as MACD are more appropriate than oscillators during this phase.

Bear Confirmed - Again, just as it sounds, the bear confirmed phase is the most bearish signal the index gives. In this mode, the Bullish Percent Index has a column of 0's on the far right edge of the chart, and this column must surpass the next column of 0's to the left by at least one square down. Since a market in the bear confirmed mode is trending downward, only short positions should be considered during it, and directional indicators are again the weapons of choice.

Bull Correction - The bull correction mode, following only a bull confirmed phase, is a sideways market or a market experiencing a correction after a bull confirmed phase. The chart features a column of 0's on the right edge that has yet to pass the last 0's column. Long positions should be taken with caution because a bull correction can reverse into a bear confirmed. During the bull correction mode, look to oscillators like stochastic for insight into timing trades.

Bear Correction - A market in the bear correction phase, following only a bear confirmed phase, is also a sideways market, and it is experiencing a correction from bear confirmed. A bear correction features a column of X's on the right edge of the chart that fails to surpass the last column of X's. Again, use short positions with caution, and use oscillators instead of directional indicators with the charts.

Bull Alert - The final two phases of the Bullish Percent Index involve overbought or oversold conditions. On the Bullish Percent chart, readings above 70% are considered overbought, and readings below 30% are considered oversold. The bull alert phase is simply a reversal into a new column of X's from below 30% on the chart, and it indicates that the index is oversold and due for a bounce. As soon as the index signals a bull alert, traders can take long positions with caution until the X's cross back above the 30% line.
Bear Alert - A bear alert is simply the opposite of a bull alert, except to signal a Bear Alert, the index must be crossing below the 70% line with a column of 0's. It is important to remember that for a bear alert to signal, the column of 0's must actually cross back below the 70% line. During a bear alert the market is overbought and due for a sell-off. Take short positions with caution until the market reverts back to bull confirmed. During Alert phases it is a good idea to take quick profits (10-15%) because there is a good chance the market will reverse.
Click to expand...

Crossing of the 50% line is also a very important indication ...........


I think if You integrate this with an Index chart and esp look for confirmation from Volume ( Where is the following .. With the buying or the selling )... You have a useful map delineating where We are in regards to sentiment...

The real test will come when mkts head down again...

motorway
Click to expand...

Bump this post from the time of the August Correction.. ( the point is about one sidedness, it's danger and opportunity ).

It has some context and explanation

A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?

Does it mean all the constituents are doing exactly the same thing ?
Are the constituents even the same ?

The bullish percent is a bottom up view
( without the bottom there is no top down , there is nothing ! )

And be very clear...
The B% is Bear Confirmed

But everyone knows that (6.6%! ) by now..
Hence------------>:)

Even the Newspapers have it on their front pages

The low risk area below 30%: Almost everyone who wants to sell has already sold. ( but only ) Once the indicator starts moving up from this area (indicated by reversals on the p&f chart of the bullish %) it is time to start accumulating growth stocks and to attempt bottom-fishing in stocks at multi-year lows.
Click to expand...
( maybe:) )

DYOR

motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?

Does it mean all the constituents are doing exactly the same thing ?
Are the constituents even the same ?
Click to expand...

It's a worthwhile question to get you thinking...so relatively speaking, it could always be worse or better than August.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Let's say, a gentlemens decline for the futures:

I remember when 100 points down hurt me financially. :eek:

2 days x Hundred point down day left me reeling!

These times must be heart breaking for many...


SPI 200 5,283.00 -96.00
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Upside down head-shoulder formation?

A few scenarios

1. Rally from here to higher resistance levels (5800's?)
2. Retest of the 5400 zone and then higher levels.
3. Failure of the 5400 zone (5200 looks like a good target)
4. 5200 fails then we could be in for new lows (4800 perhaps?)

Perhaps some spec buys at 5400?
Breach of 5400 spec shorts with targets to 5200?

It was good to see that the SPI bounced off the lows quite strongly. I'm slightly bullish in my views now. Up until 4 days ago, I've been a bear and shorting it like there is no tomorrow. Now I'll be considering some spec's long. Perhaps a buy on a rebound of 5400???

Anyway, these are just some of my thoughts... don't blame me if it goes pear shape :eek:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Triangle break on XAO 5min. Will see if it holds. May support Kennas' run to 5700.

EDIT: Hmmm. Nope, looks like collapsing as of 13:00
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey, it's quiet here today. Strong finish today. All the bears in despair. :rolleyes: ;)

I'm still of the view that it was overkill and we will settle back into a roughly sideways pattern for the next few months.

Contrary to some high profile headlines most businesses in the US learnt a lesson from the last recession and are not heavily geared and are well placed to survive any recession or borrow at better rates to take advantage of opportunities.

My thinking is that once they had to report bad news they got stuck into the write downs to get them out of the way ASAP so the next round of reports has little or no bad news. Thats the smart psychological way to go.

Japan did the opposite and witheld their write-downs for longer and is one of the main reasons for their slow economy.

While there is no doubt the US has fundamental problems, it is not going to be the end of the world as we know it just yet... at least not here in Aus.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Dodgy H&S, but the double bottom on that gives me a target of 5700.
Click to expand...

I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.

Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.

Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.
Click to expand...

I agree.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I'm with Wayne, waiting for a major lower high, where that will be and how strong this next rally is could be telling. At this stage I'm thinking somewhere between 5900 - 6000, could depend on how much fight the bulls have left in them.

Would be expecting another test of 5200 at some stage.
Click to expand...

Im with you.

I reckon the bottom will be 4500-ish.
Maybe not this year.
 
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