XAO Technical Analysis

chops_a_must · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
The US went further into the tank after hours too. A shocking open in store for the XAO for sure.

Dow -336 & SP500 -44 at time of writing.

DOW done another 20 points.

It was to do with Intel earnings after the bell.

Looks like that breakdown I was sprouting about happened and hit my target about 10 minutes after I decided to get some sleep. Chops = tarded.

What would be your position on a potential mini-crash here over the next few days Wayne? All the fed stalling with the PPT, seems to have just barrelled up downside momentum rather than ensuring a quick, healthy, short and sharp sell off.

wayneL · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
DOW done another 20 points.

It was to do with Intel earnings after the bell.

Looks like that breakdown I was sprouting about happened and hit my target about 10 minutes after I decided to get some sleep. Chops = tarded.

What would be your position on a potential mini-crash here over the next few days Wayne? All the fed stalling with the PPT, seems to have just barrelled up downside momentum rather than ensuring a quick, healthy, short and sharp sell off.

Well the mocking, smirking, baying perma-bulls (Krudlow et al) are having their credibility nuked at the moment. The folks (here in the UK at least) that were feigning unconcern, are openly sh!ting themselves right now.

Sentiment is taking a swan dive and though I've always favoured the "japanese" scenario, a volatile sell off wouldn't surprise me now.

dhukka · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Well the mocking, smirking, baying perma-bulls (Krudlow et al) are having their credibility nuked at the moment. The folks (here in the UK at least) that were feigning unconcern, are openly sh!ting themselves right now.

Sentiment is taking a swan dive and though I've always favoured the "japanese" scenario, a volatile sell off wouldn't surprise me now.

That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?

Sean K · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?

They must be seriously considering this now. Odds on probably.

wayneL · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
That's what we want, all out panic, to make things nice and cheap. Although the last time we looked likely for a big sell-off Helicopter Ben came in with mid meeting cut to the discount rate, any bets on a mid meeting rate cut tonight?

The ECB thinks the Fed can't lower much more because of the USD apocalypse.

Will they trash the dollar? (further that is)

Well, I am incapable of being surprised by these clowns now, so who knows?

evwatkins · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

im so glad i sold everything yesterday

numbercruncher · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wholesale inflation shot up in 2007 by the largest amount in 26 years and that wouldnt of seen all of the effects of all the previous cuts, punters now saying 100pc chance of .5pc cut and like 40pc chance of .75

These guys are surely going to trash the dollar, i have basically zero confidence that they can find the " balance ".

More bank results this week ...... smell that ..... sorta smells like carnage , contagion , apocalypse and apple pie all at once

But Im just a pessimist lol, and have been wrong more than once .....

dhukka · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
They must be seriously considering this now. Odds on probably.

Yep I think it's a high probability. If they don't do it tonight then they go into blackout mode since it is only 2 weeks until the next meeting. Although as Steve Lemming Leisman said last night on CNBC, it is unusual for the Fed to do an emergency cut this close to a meeting.

Nyden · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
If you are going to say things like that, perhaps you should take a look at your position in the market. Our banks have eventually admitted exposure to sub-prime. Some of our councils have been caught up. As far as I'm aware, per capita we are the most in-debted nation in the western world. Spending habits are fine I'm sure.

Credit is an international fundamental, and the basis of it is dictated from the US. These are really really basic things.

I agree, & understand that we have problems, but I just didn't think to this extent. Oh, don't worry about my position, I have 0 exposure to banks, & retailers. I just hold onto a few resources stocks at the moment that I feel have some upside to them But, I'll be selling many positions on those as well!

It's not really frustration either, but rather lack of understanding I suppose.

Trembling Hand · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some dribble from a mad man.

When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.

I'm in.

Awesomandy · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Ignore me... My brain had temporarily gone haywired.

vishalt · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm glad me and my Dad have gone short !!!1

(I still have BHP long though but shorted the British listed one)

zhang66777 · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

vishalt said:
I'm glad me and my Dad have gone short !!!1

(I still have BHP long though but shorted the British listed one)

would you mind to tell me what the british listed one is, and where i can find it, thanks a lot

zhang66777 · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I am quite new here, would you, any experienced trader, mind to tell me have you seen us or australia or whatever market has fallen for 10 days in a row without any breath, please tell me, thanks.

MS+Tradesim · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zhang66777 said:
I am quite new here, would you, any experienced trader, mind to tell me have you seen us or australia or whatever market has fallen for 10 days in a row without any breath, please tell me, thanks.

Try 2002-03. Several times in one 12 mth period......

zhang66777 · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
Try 2002-03. Several times in one 12 mth period......

sorry, i didn't get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks

Sean K · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zhang66777 said:
sorry, i didn't get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks

Are you from the Guiness Book of Records zhang?

Don't be too concerned, it will stop falling one day.....

I hope you're not a retiree who recently got their super paid out and put it all in a US/UK property trust....

rub92me · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wouldn't be surprised by a bit of a bounce in the afternoon. (Some rate cutting rumours from the US, plus the generally oversold market. I'm tempted myself to use some of my cash to buy some 'bargains', but then again today's bargain could be tomorrow's disaster - catching falling knives and all that. )

MS+Tradesim · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zhang66777 said:
sorry, i didn't get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks

It wasn't clear from your post that you meant 1 or 2 days breath. To me, that is not stopping for breath. But if you want to be technical, then no I don't think in the chart I posted there are any strict falls of 10 days.

It's pretty much irrelevant though. The markets are going down and it will bottom when it bottoms. As has been said many times by many people, there will be sucker rallies on the way down.

dhukka · 16 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zhang66777 said:
sorry, i didn't get you, i couldn't find any fall in 10 days row without 1 or 2 day breath from the image you attached, usually 7-9 days fall then 1-2 days breath, am i wrong, please correct me, thanks

In the last 24 years I could only find one instance of the XAO falling 10 days straight,

9/13/1990 1494.9 -1.2%
9/14/1990 1480.1 -1.0%
9/17/1990 1477.4 -0.2%
9/18/1990 1472.3 -0.3%
9/19/1990 1451.7 -1.4%
9/20/1990 1446.8 -0.3%
9/21/1990 1428 -1.3%
9/24/1990 1412.5 -1.1%
9/25/1990 1393.8 -1.3%
9/26/1990 1385.7 -0.6%

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