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XAO Banter Thread

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Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'? Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'? Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!
Click to expand...

It is a live call
He's fading the gap down on open.
He'd be in and gone before you analysed a chart.
Check your charts and youll see he was right!
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'? Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!
Click to expand...

I did make a call in the Int. Banter thread if you would like to follow that up with a chart BUT I'm too busy taking money off retail. But you wouldn't have much to post...

 

OK. I will be the punter every Friday and you fade the move when I post a chart... we share the profits. Deal?
 
skc said:
OK. I will be the punter every Friday and you fade the move when I post a chart... we share the profits. Deal?
Click to expand...

Its a pattern that makes some sense. Back in the good old days, 2005-07, Friday arvos used to be reverse action of the previous week on the SPI as strong swing traders closed out their week. Thats all but gone now but you still see action like this morning. You're short all week and you are presented with a nice down open, thanks to the US. What are you going to do? Close. Of cause the props will front run you....
 
Now here's something that can actually be used!

Dominant up-trending channel in black bold. Lesser down-trending channel in white. Old res/sup trend line in yellow.

Today's high touched the yellow line almost exactly, as explained in an earlier post today. Today's low touched the lower part of the dominant channel exactly, and this can be anticipated because it is the parallel of the upper black line which has 3 touches. So both these trend lines can be drawn the day before. I expect the white channel will need to be broken before we try to retest old highs. I think the white channel will continue into next week.
 

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Trembling Hand said:
How?

you have only drawn them AFTER they have happened.
Click to expand...

The top black line gets 3 touches (from highs) on the 21/8/12. That makes it fairly reliable. So from that date you can look for a channel which will be any line parallel to that first line, but lower down the chart. I took the low of 25/7/12 and just extended it to the right. Any low pivot can work.

The yellow line has been sitting there for ages.

The white channel I am constantly re-drawing each day if necessary. For channels to be useful as a signal, the gradient needs to be a bit steeper than what it is at present, and with more touches. In other words, I think the black channel is still dominant.
 
Is this a signal that the party is over or that someone decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?

 
nulla nulla said:
Is this a signal that the party is over or that someone decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?
Click to expand...

part i

essentially youve drawn some random lines on a chart.......you need to show relationships that might, at the least, give context and in this daily view you'll need to look further back to find evidence that friday saw a first move down, which i dont think is true, not yet........after reading your post i decided to do some cash hour ratios on the XJO.......the ratios i found show that the 4394 low was a 127.2 low extension from the 4403 high in a simple abc move down and this is a simple sign of an interruption in an unfinished move up.......i suspect the index still has another leg upto 4447-4455 zone where i find several resistances......

this looks like a simple pul back which is vulnerable to o/s influences given how evenly divided opinion is on managers buying and selling and the range we're in......to me, this makes sense, broadly speaking
 
part ii

to ratify the low last week i also looked at the relationship since the 3985 XJO low and find there are several ratios that all call for last weeks low to be a constructive building block for another leg higher daily basis......a closing 30 mintue bar below that level would tend to change that view


as you can see there a number of diff ratios (the math are not all specific to one author as practised by some traders as i dont think single mathemtaic structures ever tell the true picture as they attempt to single-file lock in a single view of price which cannot be done....at least i've never seen it done and i strongly doubt exists.....)

"4330-4267 170" means if you take the 4330 high to the 4267 low and ratio that to the 4403 high 4303 is 170%
"4176-4063 100" means if you take the high to low you get 100% to 4303 etc etc......

while the numbers arent to the pin, meaning they wont be definitive on a calculator, they are in the tight enough cluster to form a significant level of support into the 4303 zone for last week.......it merely allows me to define the impact of holding or breaking that level

and to see if your comment had any validity i looked even further back to the whole structure since the cash low of XJO 3766


there are at least 4 ratios that call for a halt to the upside at 4447-4455 zone and these stem from the 3766 low in 2011 ......
whether these are magnet ratios i have no idea, i am merely using them as a reference of interference in the current up-phase and not as an aggressive idea to position to get short rather to plan for an exit if long at that point as it's also a there-abouts zone that a 6 year old could guess as a reversal point........

given that the COT report for the S&P500 is fairly balanced for major hedgers, that is, no large one-sided bets on the last report and given that the XJO can travel 2% on a hard night when the SPX has only achived a 1% i am inclined to think with the long weekend ahead (short weeks are historically a pos bias period) we'll hang up here for while......

the point is, there are numbers to refer to....these can change in a moment and require an action to agree with that......... while ratios can be boohood, theyre simply evidence......

 
You are right. Its just a chart with lines on it. Six month chart, short term trend lines and channels. Here is the three year chart, same lines, longer term trends and channels.



In light of what is being splashed around the media, influencing sentiment, about what is going on in: Europe, U.S.A and China (just for the biggest influences on global markets) the question (in banter format) still stands.

Is this a signal (this weeks retrace) that the (recent rebound) party is over or that someone (more than one?) decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits, just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?
 
nulla nulla said:
Here is the three year chart, same lines, longer term trends and channels.

....just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?
Click to expand...

thanks......the xjo has just tested that low of last week and the US futes have done the same on extremely low volume, a hook......

another drop through here today and we're headed much lower.....i think we're headed higher....at least this week
 
decent swing into the green, nudging yesterday's high. Both the upper and lower limits of the white channel on my last chart will be tested today, by the looks. Interesting!
 
The white channel is now clearly dominant. Hasn't needed tweaking since it started. The big black line is at 4274. If that gets broken, exit all long positions!
 

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Why not the AUD is weakening against the Euro.
Exports look better.
 
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