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XAO Banter Thread

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Your target looks safe Joules.

My chart is slightly different. Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Your target looks safe Joules.

My chart is slightly different. Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.
Click to expand...

hows that chart coming along, GB

xjo cfd hit symmetry resis 4306 precash early this morning and sold off most of the session inviting shorters and weak longs to let go .....i think we'll get through that level overnight which use to be popular sports a few years ago so no reason we cant continue that tradition
 
Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches. Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).
 

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The recent highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. On the back of the recent euphoria about the "save the euro" and "U.S jobs" the international markets are spiking again and our xao is having an upward burst. Is it sustainable though?



Or will we do an about face when we reach 4500?
 
This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.
 

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Gringotts Bank said:
Not much of a pull back. Long again tomorrow.
Click to expand...

GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long after the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!

Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!
 

The big miners and banks are overbought (12 day ROC). But on occasion, overbought conditions can continue to run. So I'm looking for another little spurt, because there are a lot of mid cap stocks with big gaps and long green candles and that doesn't tend to happen at a top.
 
Logique said:
This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.
Click to expand...

a few challenges of intepretation with these charts......first, low volume can imply low participation not a clear bullish divergence, this looks more like an instrument going into winters rest, a final volume purge might be a signal to get long where......

second both indicia highlighted have a tendency to revert to zero, that is, they'll move back to neutral bias until price levels out, like a concussive effect a skimming stone on water, they are simply mimicing what youre already seeing in the price itself......the bb isnt really telling you anything other than what both highlighted indicia are saying: the evidence is in the price itself

youre trying to nail a bottom here on anecdotal ideas that are (of themselves) yet to be proven, afterall, gold can be said to be holding up at 1600 which is different to finding and testing a low and moving decisively away (up) plus gold was making it's (nominal) new altime highs in sept 11 distinctly not supporting this chart, cdnx

ideas to mull over

edit:

i should say that the indicia reacts in a wider sweep even tho the price swings are much smaller relative to the recent momo of the decline so when you see a divergent signal what youre actually seeing is a commensurate response by the indicia, afterall, the indicia is not linearly connected to length of price only the swing event, imho
 

You can short-term swing trade the right stocks at the top of the index range:

e.g. http://engineering-returns.com/2010...-trending-stocks-within-an-overbougth-market/

In fact, I do like this sort of setup much more than swinging from the bottom of the range, returns are much better correlated to "bull markets" here which means less concern from me that I'm buying into the start of a trend change.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches. Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).
Click to expand...

GB, thanks.......only just saw your chart now.......we're clearly in an upward corrective phase, imho.....thus, if i take orthodox regime such as the wave principal, the 50% level of the upwards channel suits very well as a rejection point (we're there right now) so we have some wood to chop before a bunch of money gets to buying and gives it another spirt upwards.....although i havent studied the xao like the xjo, i'll wager there's a few ratio'd resistances in this zone too as we hit into the vpoc and encounter more selling......

i like this view
 

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strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar......

excepting the p!ss poor volumes
 
Joules MM1 said:
strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar......

excepting the p!ss poor volumes
Click to expand...

Yeh plenty of stocks moving up freely, but on small vol. The big red candle on the Ords seems a distant memory. Indian summer.
 
There's been times in the past where you'd buy every stock that rose 6% (at +6%) on high volume, sell at EOD, and make a killing. It's happening again. The ease of movement factor is as high as I've ever seen.
 
Joules MM1 said:
looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......

any particular level you think we can achieve from here?
Click to expand...

made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days this week
 
Joules MM1 said:
made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days this week
Click to expand...

Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.
 
tinhat said:
Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.
Click to expand...

16.4pts on the XJO due to ex-div today. So we are actually up a bit.

Basically the premium between the XJO and SPI tells you there is roughly another 15-20pts in dividend is coming out of the index between now and the Sep expiry.
 
I think like the top will be rounded and irregular, rather than sudden and clearly defined. That means it's still low risk trading environment, IMO.
 
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