XAO Banter Thread

[divs4ever]

Well, having just read this post there certainly is no shortage of investment funds out there. I often wonder and ponder just how much dollar investments come from the medical fraterinity, ie Drs, Dentists Specialists who are absolutely rolling in the stuff.
Our local Vet(Dr) $85 for 10 min or less no discount. x6 and x8hrs and x5 days.

well PSQ isn't doing that well but SDI is doing OK so not so sure about the dentists are raking it in ( compared to pre-pandemic ) and the 'elective surgery folks ' were complaining a bit , unlike many of the cardiologists ( two of mine haven't noticed i haven't visited them for over a year the other one will check things next year )

 

[peter2]

Welcome to the ASX Lithium extravaganza. 11/15 top gainers for the day (so far) are lithium stocks.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Welcome to the ASX Lithium extravaganza. 11/15 top gainers for the day (so far) are lithium stocks.

The white metal is white hot

The green metal is red hot

 

[peter2]

ALB's bid for LTR has perked up the metal commodity stocks. Good to see some bullish sentiment reappear in this sector.
NWH and IMD have perked up also. I'm certain @Sean K is feeling perkier today. LOL.

Uncertain, is this the start of the next rally to old highs or just a small bear market rally? "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

 

[Sean K]

ALB's bid for LTR has perked up the metal commodity stocks. Good to see some bullish sentiment reappear in this sector.
NWH and IMD have perked up also. I'm certain @Sean K is feeling perkier today. LOL.

Uncertain, is this the start of the next rally to old highs or just a small bear market rally? "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

I was too busy doing CHN high fives that I forgot about the rest of the market. Yes, perkier.

 

[Country Lad]

Interesting divergence in direction between the All Ords and S&P 500. I have seen divergences before but as far as I can recall, they have been the other way around to this case.

 

[finicky]

Interesting divergence in direction between the All Ords and S&P 500

Could it be the out performance of their megacaps (including now Nvidia)?
"Nvidia becomes first US chipmaker valued at over $1 trillion; joins exclusive FAANG group." 30 May 2023

"During the past four months, investors have aggressively flocked to the biggest U.S. consumer-tech stocks for their perceived defensiveness, helping drive their lofty valuations even higher .." 24 May 2023
"To sum up, U.S. stock-market performance has increasingly been driven by just a few companies that all share similar market cap, sector exposure and valuations."

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/concentration-risk-high-s-and-p-500-q2-2023

 

[peter2]

I'm finding it hard to remain bullish as our market and the accompanying sentiment becomes more bearish. My opinion on inflation is that it'll hang around for another year or so. I can see further rate rises coming and getting closer to 5%. I also think people's savings are becoming thinner as the covid savings are spent.

I've put some of my trading capital into term deposits (4%) for six months and moved most to bank accounts paying >3%. Today I've even bought a small parcel of BBUS. I think I'm a little late to buy BBOZ, maybe not. Who knows. I'm still buying gold and copper stocks but I'm not buying too much in this dip as it may last longer than expected.

In summary, still bullish medium/long term but going into hibernation during this winter. ?

ps: Have started trading FX markets again for entertainment.

 

[Smurf1976]

In summary, still bullish medium/long term but going into hibernation during this winter. ?

I don't try and forecast the market, I just trade it as it is, but for my actively traded account it's mostly cash at present.

I didn't make a conscious decision to get out of stocks and I'm not out completely. It's just that my system has been telling me not to buy for over two months now meanwhile existing holdings continue to have stops raised until they're sold (all my exits are triggered by hitting the stop which is raised based on a formula).

Given we're now in the seasonally weaker period for share markets, the old "sell in May and go away", plus the backdrop of central banks raising interest rates and some obvious possible "trigger" events, risk is more to the downside in my view.

But if my system tells me to buy then I'll buy.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm finding it hard to remain bullish as our market and the accompanying sentiment becomes more bearish. My opinion on inflation is that it'll hang around for another year or so. I can see further rate rises coming and getting closer to 5%. I also think people's savings are becoming thinner as the covid savings are spent.

I've put some of my trading capital into term deposits (4%) for six months and moved most to bank accounts paying >3%. Today I've even bought a small parcel of BBUS. I think I'm a little late to buy BBOZ, maybe not. Who knows. I'm still buying gold and copper stocks but I'm not buying too much in this dip as it may last longer than expected.

In summary, still bullish medium/long term but going into hibernation during this winter. ?

ps: Have started trading FX markets again for entertainment.

Similar to you Peter, I'm about 50/50, term deposit 4.1% for 5 years paid monthly, but may re negotiate in 3 months to more like 4.5%.

 

[Country Lad]

I'm finding it hard to remain bullish as our market and the accompanying sentiment becomes more bearish. My opinion on inflation is that it'll hang around for another year or so. I can see further rate rises coming and getting closer to 5%. I also think people's savings are becoming thinner as the covid savings are spent.

I've put some of my trading capital into term deposits (4%) for six months and moved most to bank accounts paying >3%. Today I've even bought a small parcel of BBUS. I think I'm a little late to buy BBOZ, maybe not. Who knows. I'm still buying gold and copper stocks but I'm not buying too much in this dip as it may last longer than expected.

In summary, still bullish medium/long term but going into hibernation during this winter. ?

ps: Have started trading FX markets again for entertainment.

You are likely not on your own with waning confidence in the market, especially with the recession talk around. But then there was the commentary in @bigdog's Daily US report where AP news said we were on the cusp of a bull market. I think that is a bit hopeful. Like others here, except for my very long term holds (decades), I am mostly in cash.

 

[frugal.rock]

Interesting divergence in direction between the All Ords and S&P 500. I have seen divergences before but as far as I can recall, they have been the other way around to this case.

View attachment 157924

I had expected divergence, but, in the inverse direction- AUS up, US down. ?

I note oil prices have been lower for a while now, so am guessing that inflation has a good chance of settling out.

The key memory here is the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
Either way, as soon as/
if the media presents we are in a recession, we know it's old news by then, and time to re-enter hard. Blink and you will miss it.

"Bye-bye bear... New S&P 500 bull market has legs - BofA"

Bye-bye bear... New S&P 500 bull market has legs - BofA By Investing.com

Bye-bye bear... New S&P 500 bull market has legs - BofA

au.investing.com

 

[peter2]

I posted a rant when BRN entered the ASX200. Finally I see a market journalist discussing the sad state of the ASX200 index with the inclusion of penny stocks. Stocks like BRN, LKE, and IMU have been included in the ASX200 index recently.

 

[divs4ever]

I posted a rant when BRN entered the ASX200. Finally I see a market journalist discussing the sad state of the ASX200 index with the inclusion of penny stocks. Stocks like BRN, LKE, and IMU have been included in the ASX200 index recently.

yes , but it has happened before in my short time in investing

it does make you wonder whether the S&P calculations into market sectors needs some tweaking ( like maybe posting a taxable profit as an additional hurdle into the race towards 'quality stock ' status )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

.
Somehow, ringfencing is needed to protect real companies.

As per The AFR

It’s time to ban penny stocks from Australia’s flagship share indexIf you want to attract and win the trust of serious overseas investors including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and asset managers you don’t want a flagship index pockmarked by penny stocks....

Last week, Australia’s flagship index resembled a penny stock casino .... Lake dropped 38 per cent to 29c, speculative biotech Imugene finished the week at just 8.9¢, with tech hopeful BrainChip losing 13.8 per cent over the week to 34.5¢.

The performance across what is supposed to be an index of blue-chip businesses is a growing problem, given passive index tracking funds mean almost every Australian has some financial interest in the success of the S&P/ASX 200.

Moreover, BrainChip, Imugene, and Lake Resources share common traits of unproven business models, virtually no revenue, heavy share selling by insiders, and penny stock prices that equal daily volatility.

 

[divs4ever]

slightly off topic , but i notice ETFs like VLC and ILC ( focus on the ASX to 20 stocks ) and their counterparts featuring the ASX top 50 rarely get widespread mention in forums or even product advertising

is that a symptom , or general apathy

maybe paid stock commentators are indoctrinated in the US 'capital gains' school of preference

 

[peter2]

Lots of high volume bullish bars today. Approx 70% of the XAO constituents are showing a weekly up bar with one day of the week left. How is the week going to end? Could this be the start of the swing that takes the index to a new high? The ASX top 20 have room to move higher.
We've got to be bullish.

 

[UMike]

Not sure why.
Seems we haven't hit recession yet.
Maybe the markets are betting that we don't have one?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Not sure why.
Seems we haven't hit recession yet.
Maybe the markets are betting that we don't have one?

New RBA governor? Thought to be more 'dovish', bonds have turned a bit.

 

[UMike]

New RBA governor? Thought to be more 'dovish', bonds have turned a bit.

I'd have thought that it'd be more of the same.