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XAO Banter Thread

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I can't remember where you said it @peter2 so I am just going to put it here.

On 14th June gap down day after the Friday/Monday US market massacre, you said something like "might be interesting to buy some stocks which close well above their open".

I happened to be topping up my WES stake on the open that day as the downmove had put me moderately underweight equities and noticed it did indeed close well off the lows and above the open, making me feel significantly smarter than my previous WES purchase at ~$55 in Dec.



Interesting to note how well WES has held up relative to say, ASX which formed a similar pattern on that day but has retraced a lot more in the recent selloff



CSL has held up


as has, e.g. TLS, BXB

whereas COL hasn't

 
That's surprising. The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020). There's room to get worse though and I'm prepared in case it does.
 
peter2 said:
The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020).
Click to expand...
Just my reading of the masses but it seems nowhere even remotely as bad.

2020 was basically a mass panic about entering uncharted territory. Entire industries ceased to exist almost literally overnight with nobody sure what the future held. The market was seeing major falls day after day.

2022 hasn’t even caught the attention of mainstream media outside the financial pages.
 
peter2 said:
That's surprising. The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020). There's room to get worse though and I'm prepared in case it does.
Click to expand...

I'm going to make a rather large call here, on "the vibe".

  • Interest rates in Australia will not rise much more, probably 2-4 x 0.25% over the next 12 mo.
  • The Housing Market will fall a little 5-10% and then stabilise.
  • The XAO will be bumpy until November, no large falls, but then take off and be 20-40% higher his time next year.

Just on my sense of what is happening worldwide and in Australia, The Lucky Country.

gg
 
Underlying bullishness in the ASX seems to be the consensus here amongst the market watchers but we have to wait for a better R:R opportunity. It'll come.
 

It's quite funny on a personal basis to watch my FOMO levels rising when the XJO is pumping hard and AUI is just chilling with no real bids in the book and the bids not moving up at all.

Then you wake up to notice the SPI futures overnight have caught down the entire pump in one go, which is why I posted this in the first place.

Whatever entities like to bid on AUI seem to have a much better/leading view on the market, at least since I have been holding it.
 
Guess those 'entities' are comfortably sitting on their dividends paid last Friday & gathering the pennies for the SPP, keeping their stress levels low.
 
Up >1% one day, down >1% the next. High volatility seems the current norm. The down bars are bigger than the up ones and the market looks likely to test the June22 low.

There's been lots of dips to buy, only to be disappointed when there's another one. I've weaned myself from the temptation to buy falling prices in "good" companies. A company may have a promising outlook but falling stock prices doesn't help my P&L.

Our market is trading in a range outlined by the April22 high and June22 low. If the market doesn't make a new low I wonder how long it's going to stay in this range? There are lots of problems to resolve and it may take a year or two. I think we have to be patient.

I'll nibble in the weekly dips but not the daily dips. I prefer to avoid looking at intra-day charts on the ASX. It's too much work for little reward.
 
What a dispersion day!

All the long duration growth assets bid hard and short duration cyclicals chopped.

CSL, XRO, RMD, COH, WES ..... lol even ATEC which has so much junk in it was up.

I think someone had a big long cyclical/short growth spread on and was rapidly exiting today.
 
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