XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

Or diamond/gann 45 deg style

 

[notting]

I short a lot of stuff. But I have never shorted the big 4 or even the small 3 and not even the big Mac.
Have shorted SUN and AMP
Believe it or not I actually made money going long on the big four as they were plumeting during the GFC! with quick ins and outs. NAB was the first.
How could you short them now when there is still this dividend hunger and they are fully franked at around 6?
This however has me slightly nervous for the first time in about 30 years of owning Ausi bank stocks -
http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...rmer-barclays-chief-says-20170719-gxes3l.html

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Today a close below 5780 would be very bearish, imo. Would represent a failed breakout.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Now a perfect circle. Unusual.

 

[notting]

It's mooning you

 

[Gringotts Bank]

It's mooning you

http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...a/news-story/6b66be762552401472955c0c46692134

 

[Quant]

Now a perfect circle. Unusual.

View attachment 71951

Pretty useless

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The negative committee is in session.

Bulkowski might be interested. The Gringott's Full Moon.

 

[smallwolf]

Pretty useless

squish it from the top and bottom and it becomes an oval shape!

 

[gartley]

Taking the following fixed cycles analysis chart at face value, it suggests downturn will persist until approx October. Note: cycle points no's only reflect points in time and their position to Y axis should be ignored.

https://invst.ly/4iy8w

 

[gartley]

The following chart analysis suggests a sell off and breakaway from the triangle pattern Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The following chart analysis suggests a sell off and breakaway from the triangle pattern Monday or Tuesday.

I can't see any indication on those charts of a change bar the potential of an uptrend in the Primary VIX and maybe some slight convergence of price and VIX. Can you point out the difference you see please?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Hoping this past few months absorption of selling holds. Think it will be long term holds that benefit from this near term depression. Buy the selloffs I say.

 

[gartley]

I can't see any indication on those charts of a change bar the potential of an uptrend in the Primary VIX and maybe some slight convergence of price and VIX. Can you point out the difference you see please?

Gladly. First l will say that the market has done today exactly what the analysis suggested.
The modified VIX Fix is not the same as the VIX that you are familiar with. Firstly I have added a cyclical component to it. In the VIX FIX primary when the two centered moving averages converge and touch (and eventually cross) it suggests the trend is slowing.

If the trend is deemed to be slowing then I turn my focus the VIX Fix secondary. This I use for trying to time entries and exits. What I look for here is the brown CMA (centered moving average) to meet the the zero line and at the same time about to be penetrated by the green line (Vix Fix). That's my trigger.

There is a fair amount of discretion involved, but I should add that I use both of these with the PP (price projection) tool which I developed. The PP is the key because it provides an approximate LEVEL for a trend change and these two indicators work around this. At the moment the PP level ( which I have not shown here) is much lower then what the market is trading at. But if you read post # 2529 I have given an example of how the PP tool is helpful for forecasting changes in trend.

Cheers

 

[gartley]

Hoping this past few months absorption of selling holds. Think it will be long term holds that benefit from this near term depression. Buy the selloffs I say.

I don't think the pattern of trend ( lower double top below 2007 high) will do the bullish case any good. That's my bias anyway!! Compare this long term chart with this example of the AUDJPY long term chart and the end result. Time will tell......

https://invst.ly/4jcvq

https://invst.ly/4jcyj

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thank you Gartley. I notice the sentiment at TradingView is Strong Sell. Great to see the different perspectives.

 

[gartley]

Thank you Gartley. I notice the sentiment at TradingView is Strong Sell. Great to see the different perspectives.

To be honest I take no real notice of the sentiment at that site as it's not a scientific study.
Proper sentiment studies ( like Investors Intelligence) cover a much bigger population.

Even so I have not come across a proper sentiment index or study for the ASX???



I suppose

 

[Wysiwyg]

Even so I have not come across a proper sentiment index or study for the ASX???

If there was some way to collate large market participants sentiment on a daily basis. Would rely heavily on honesty and I am sure if large positions were going to buy/sell they would not reveal so they don't spook the market. Still have to use price action I suppose.

 

[gartley]

If there was some way to collate large market participants sentiment on a daily basis. Would rely heavily on honesty and I am sure if large positions were going to buy/sell they would not reveal so they don't spook the market. Still have to use price action I suppose.

Maybe this one might be worth looking into. I have heard about it before although never used.

http://www.trade-futures.com/dailyindex.php

 

[Wysiwyg]

Maybe this one might be worth looking into. I have heard about it before although never used.

Ha. The old least bullish at the low and most bullish at the high trick. Probably due to least bullish waiting for long moving averages or other long term bullish indicators before joining in. Once the most risk averse have joined it is all over. Opposite end is the all cosuming fear cycle.