XAO Banter Thread

[Quant]

A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden. The banks are beaten within an inch of a breakdown. The reversal on BHP etc will look ugly if tomorrow isn't spritely.

I sense that some out there know APRA is coming down on banks in forseeable future ala budget bank levy . news is in the price

 

[Quant]

Just an idea but given the AUD id suggest lots of foreign selling XJO on the AUD breakout , not the price action of retail today , proggy selling today

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

the sooner the APRA stuff is released the better, will be a breath of fresh air

 

[rb250660]

Tell me about it TH. I was on a hot streak for 3 months, couldn't lose. Now I'm handing a decent portion of it back. Oh well, that's how it goes.

 

[skc]

A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden. The banks are beaten within an inch of a breakdown. The reversal on BHP etc will look ugly if tomorrow isn't spritely.

Still broadly within this 150pt channel. It's false broken a few times so chances are the next break will be real, just to catch any smartar$e trying to fade the break. May be....

 

[Smurf1976]

A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden.

Look outside the big caps and there's no shortage of "ugly" charts to be found.

Start bringing up random stock charts for a quick look. Use a 10 year chart and after a while you'll get bored with seeing the same pattern over and over. A huge plunge in 2008 with the GFC followed by a major rally which topped out long ago. Some stocks have been going up recently yes, but there's rather a lot that sure haven't.

My own opinion is that we'll see a "proper" correction before we see any major move up. By "proper" correction I mean the sort of decline that ordinary people with no particular interest in the market know about because it's big enough to be mainstream news. I could of course be wrong but that's my thought at the present time. A proper drop not just 5 or 10%.

 

[notting]

Look outside the big caps and there's no shortage of "ugly" charts to be found.

Start bringing up random stock charts for a quick look. Use a 10 year chart and after a while you'll get bored with seeing the same pattern over and over. A huge plunge in 2008 with the GFC followed by a major rally which topped out long ago. Some stocks have been going up recently yes, but there's rather a lot that sure haven't.

My own opinion is that we'll see a "proper" correction before we see any major move up. By "proper" correction I mean the sort of decline that ordinary people with no particular interest in the market know about because it's big enough to be mainstream news. I could of course be wrong but that's my thought at the present time. A proper drop not just 5 or 10%.

Washington is still stagnating even with the Republican majorities that came with Trump. That was what the big Trump relief rally was all about. Looks like the smart money is all trying to exit before the 'muppets' get wind of it.

During the GFC they were all saying 'cash is king.'
No it wasn't the stock market was 'the king maker.'
Now they are all desperate to find something to do with cash. Cah is king when no one wants it!!!!!!
.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Still broadly within this 150pt channel. It's false broken a few times so chances are the next break will be real, just to catch any smartar$e trying to fade the break. May be....

View attachment 71907

Exactly what I was thinking. And given the size of the blob, the move will be big.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Washington is still stagnating even with the Republican majorities that came with Trump. That was what the big Trump relief rally was all about. Looks like the smart money is all trying to exit before the 'muppets' get wind of it.

Reckon you may have the wrong reason for the rally. Trump may have been the catalyst but not the reason. US consumer and large Cap companies are doing pretty good. Trumps inability to do anything doesn't mean the US consumer is going to cave in here. Their confidence about the economy is quite high even though their confidence in their President is at historical levels.

 

[notting]

Yeah but if Trump can't do anything and they start concentrating on the debt and deficit then realise the US confidence in Trump is misplaced, just as it was in Greenspan.
Trump is quite the American hog that US culture tend to like, the lack of confidence in Trump is more a global thing. I think the citizens quietly love him.




Home builder sentiment at eight-month low 12 Hours Ago | 01:23

U.S. homebuilders should be feeling pretty good about their business, given the nation's severe shortage of homes for sale, but a sharp spike in the cost of lumber is weighing heavy on their bottom lines.

A monthly index of homebuilder confidence in the single-family market fell 2 points in July to 64 from a downwardly revised June reading. Economists had expected a reading of 68. Anything above 50 is considered positive, but this is the lowest reading on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index since November — before the presidential election.

"Our members are telling us they are growing increasingly concerned over rising material prices, particularly lumber," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a homebuilder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. "This is hurting housing affordability even as consumer interest in the new-home market remains strong."

Builders were initially euphoric following the November election of President Donald Trump, hoping the new administration would lift some of the heavy regulations that now account for about a quarter of the cost of putting up a new home. Builder confidence jumped 6 points from November to December (63 to 69) and then jumped again to 71 in March, following the administration's repeal of certain environmental regulations specifically involving water.

Now, new tariffs on Canadian lumber of up to 24 percent announced by the Trump administration in May, as well as the expectation of additional tariffs on other homebuilding materials imported from overseas, are overtaking the benefits of deregulation. The cost of framing lumber has spiked in recent months and continues to rise today, which only exacerbates already rising prices for land and skilled labor.

It should be noted that the 'strength' in the US property market, as in ours, is underlined by Chinese buying. They are using their fake overvalued currency to effectively steal land world wide. A lot of misplaced confidence comes from seeing your house prices rocketing up on highly dubious activity.

 

[CanOz]

lumber....Daily and monthly

 

[Quant]

Well the APRA wait is over and the bank relief rally is on ( short squeeze )

http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/17_23.aspx

 

[Quant]

Early days but looking to me only the weak shorts been squeezed today , this APRA assessment will create earnings revisions due to the actions required to meet capital adequacy . Its still a sell/short the pops market for me in medium term . My US indice volatility model has the market risk heavily skewed to downside for remainder of year which just adds to my conviction .

Edit . I liken todays squeeze as a similar kneejerk squeeze of late retail shorts much like the Govt Levy a couple months back , long term its not a positive for banks and will likely take a while to balance out .

 

[Trembling Hand]

Was that APRA announcement scheduled for today? The action in the Bank stocks yesterday right from the first tick would suggest that someone was moving some volume and didn't care much if it was lower and lower prices. If it was scheduled then they seem to have got it very wrong, if it wasn't scheduled than F me they really stuffed up their insider info!!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Speccies have plenty of juice. I reckon long also.

If up tomorrow then short term target of 5844 (ords).

If anyone is interested in the benefits of meditation for trading, the new version of the Soundself beta is pretty good. Only 30$.

 

[skc]

Well the APRA wait is over and the bank relief rally is on ( short squeeze )

http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/17_23.aspx

APRA hasn't mentioned increase in the risk weighting of the mortgages.... the 10.5% CET1 on it's own is somewhat meaningless. May be APRA didn't want to rock the boat too much in a single day. The adjusted weighting is slated to come out later in the year according to APRA.

If the market decides to to catch onto this then the bank rally may not last much past lunchtime tomorrow.

Was that APRA announcement scheduled for today? The action in the Bank stocks yesterday right from the first tick would suggest that someone was moving some volume and didn't care much if it was lower and lower prices. If it was scheduled then they seem to have got it very wrong, if it wasn't scheduled than F me they really stuffed up their insider info!!

Until late yesterday I've only known APRA announcement was due soon, but not today preciously. Either way if the shorters didn't get out on close yesterday they definitely stuffed up.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

its all in the Governments hands now and cant see APRA doing much more

getting to close to the election

still a lot of negativity around in AUS and the XAO may run up to 5900-5950 but if DOW tips over it will all vanish

 

[Quant]

If the market decides to to catch onto this then the bank rally may not last much past lunchtime tomorrow.

Totally agree

 

[gartley]

its all in the Governments hands now and cant see APRA doing much more

getting to close to the election

still a lot of negativity around in AUS and the XAO may run up to 5900-5950 but if DOW tips over it will all vanish

Pattern of trend in the US indices is scary. They are in major blow off moves, and looking at the DJI components (many have gone vertical in topping terminal phases) I would not be surprised to see this index climax in the next few days or at the very latest the next few weeks.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Symmetrical triangle might be a better representation. All commentary is bearish here. Top of triangle tomorrow maybe before a turn back down.