XAO Banter Thread

[gartley]

Gartley,

Can you provide some detail on why you think we'll get another major downtrend?

CONFLUENCE of pattern, price and time


1/ I posted this last in April of last year, a textbook Gartley pattern from 2007 peak until peak in April last year.

2/ 89 Fibonacci Months from 2009 peak till April peak last year

3/ GFC Elliott Impulse Wave down and nice ABC up

4/ Monthly Sell spike still active as shown on earlier post chart.

On top of this the SP500 has almost completed a 5 of 5 wave structure from 2009 low.

http://invst.ly/2nxnj


http://invst.ly/2nxto


Any of these on their own is really a coin toss. Combining them adds a little more weight and suggests that last years high was significant and it's still intact. The old saying, a top is a process not an event holds true in this case.
For now this market is doing a good job of driving most of us nuts which is why I am sticking to the analysis I have shown until the market dictates otherwise.

 

[CanOz]

The only things that will stop the decline is the RBA....more rate cuts would force funds into dividends again.....they might cut rates if the banks cut the discounts to loans...basel lll is here.

 

[Lone Wolf]

The only things that will stop the decline is the RBA....more rate cuts would force funds into dividends again.....they might cut rates if the banks cut the discounts to loans...basel lll is here.

I'm no economist so it's all over my head, but I can't help but think these low interest rates are setting us up with some significant problems in the future.

Self-funded retirees who were relying on the safe and steady income of bank interest are being driven towards riskier investments, if the bottom falls out of the market they may not have time to wait for it to come back. At the same time, younger people are using the record low interest rates to borrow to the point where the inevitable future rate rise will put extreme strain on their ability to repay the loan.

People with money are at a higher risk of losing it and people without money increase personal debt to dangerous levels. In both cases it would seem spending would reduce as people have less cash to spare. But isn't lowering interest rates supposed to increase spending? What happens to the economy when everyone is already broke or in debt and lowering interest rates loses its effectiveness?

I don't mean to sound like I think the sky is falling, but I do wonder where we're heading.

 

[Logique]

SMH article

Brighter November tipped for ASX after October's yield sell-off - 31 October 2016

Vanessa Desloires, SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...r-octobers-yield-selloff-20161030-gsecq3.html

The sell-off in yield stocks that plagued the sharemarket in October is set to ease, despite ongoing volatility as interest rates remain forefront of investors minds, strategists say...State Street Global Advisors Asia Pacific head of quantitative strategy Olivia Engel said it was too early to dump the yield strategy.

"I think [the sell-off] has been a bit of an overreaction," she said...

 

[kid hustlr]

CONFLUENCE of pattern, price and time


1/ I posted this last in April of last year, a textbook Gartley pattern from 2007 peak until peak in April last year.

2/ 89 Fibonacci Months from 2009 peak till April peak last year

3/ GFC Elliott Impulse Wave down and nice ABC up

4/ Monthly Sell spike still active as shown on earlier post chart.

On top of this the SP500 has almost completed a 5 of 5 wave structure from 2009 low.

http://invst.ly/2nxnj


http://invst.ly/2nxto


Any of these on their own is really a coin toss. Combining them adds a little more weight and suggests that last years high was significant and it's still intact. The old saying, a top is a process not an event holds true in this case.
For now this market is doing a good job of driving most of us nuts which is why I am sticking to the analysis I have shown until the market dictates otherwise.

Do you really see the asx at sub 3000 tho? Not saying it won't happen just seems a long way off at this stage.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

down it goes again, usual suspects of US election, US interest rates, bond yields etc etc

cash is beating the ASX over past 10yrs,

 

[CanOz]

No Live data still....

Look out below if that 5243 level goes offer

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

on rolls the bear market

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

a week or so of turmoil with US election approaching, then the XAO will get slaughtered with 4 weeks of turmoil leading up to the US Fed interest rate decision taking rates from 0.25 to 0.50

 

[CanOz]

5243 was taken out during the US session, looking to short a retest of this level today....

 

[skc]

5243 was taken out during the US session, looking to short a retest of this level today....

Today is "whack a mid-cap darling" day on the ASX. Here's for the watchlist tomorrow.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

i imagine investors around Australia be starting the day with another session of losing money on the XAO

 

[Klogg]

Today is "whack a mid-cap darling" day on the ASX. Here's for the watchlist tomorrow.

View attachment 68675

Check out DTL for some nice whacking.

On another note, RCG is a very interesting case. Their ability to generate shareholder returns are huge, albeit untested with such large acquisitions. The recent SP drop has me looking at it again (I sold my holding just after the Accent Group acquisition...)

Back to the XAO - I suppose this should have been expected, given the out-performance of the small/mid cap space relative to the ASX 200.

 

[MrBurns]

I put 6 figures into Australian Super balanced fund on Sept 9th how's that for timing.

 

[Klogg]

I put 6 figures into Australian Super balanced fund on Sept 9th how's that for timing.

Yeah, whenever I've tried timing anything in the past, I've failed miserably. It seems just leaving it in the same spot (an index fund in your case) seems to be ideal for me.
The need to do something usually tries to take over, but I know it just hurts my results...

(FWIW - I don't hold any index funds anymore, but the desire to time things still pops its head up from time to time).

 

[Wysiwyg]

i imagine investors around Australia be starting the day with another session of losing money on the XAO

There are some looking for a pivot today but I don't trust the same near term support level of September.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Jan 2006 the market at 5200

Nowhere for 10yrs, and dividends probably making up capital losses

 

[CanOz]

Happy my super is in cash, all set to 'roll' into my SMSF.

 

[CanOz]

SPI looking to extend the range down now....

 

[Lone Wolf]

Jan 2006 the market at 5200

Nowhere for 10yrs, and dividends probably making up capital losses

10 years of S&P/ASX 200 Franking Credit Adjusted Annual Total Return Index (Superannuation). I'd have thought that beats cash. You said in an earlier email that cash is outperforming over 10 years, do you have a figure?




Someone who started 5 years ago would be quite happy. Different timing, different perspective.