XAO Banter Thread

[MrBurns]

Just when I dump 6 figures into Australian Super yesterday.

 

[notting]

Just when I dump 6 figures into Australian Super yesterday.

Strange thing to do after Draghi all but laid down the red carpet for the Fed to raise in September.
'we see no reason for more stimulus.'
Euro gains on US$ making a qtr point hike in real terms, 'as we were gentlemen.'

Now the concerns should be the bond markets and debt levels.
The US stock market is completely insane in real value terms, but always has been
Now and then it gets real.
Why we follow down? I don't know we are never so 'stupid high.'
But I do know it makes for awesome opportunities.

 

[MrBurns]

Strange thing to do after Draghi all but laid down the red carpet for the Fed to raise in September.
'we see no reason for more stimulus.'

They're always saying something and nothing ever happens. the money is better off there than in the general market anyway.

 

[qldfrog]

They're always saying something and nothing ever happens. the money is better off there than in the general market anyway.

what is your meaning for there Mr Burn, do you mean your super, the asx?
Just want to understand your point.

 

[MrBurns]

what is your meaning for there Mr Burn, do you mean your super, the asx?
Just want to understand your point.

Yes qldfrog, I meant the money is better off in Australian Super than with me picking shares, at least they move the money around to best advantage whereas I just go by articles I read and gut feel....that doesnt work at all.
It's in the balanced fund so while it will dip it will eventually come back.

 

[Smurf1976]

Now the concerns should be the bond markets and debt levels.

Jim Puplava (US financial commentator - does some free podcasts at www.financialsense.com) has been saying this for quite some time now. The stock market will do whatever but the real trouble, whenever it starts, is going to be in the bond markets and it's a question of when not if.

Time will tell if he's right or not.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

its a whole new world on the share market, stocks go up and down but there is enormous risk i feel at the moment that you will get no capital growth over the next 5-10years and you will be forced to become a trader (frequent buyer/seller) to lock in the profits

when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500

 

[tech/a]

its a whole new world on the share market, stocks go up and down but there is enormous risk i feel at the moment that you will get no capital growth over the next 5-10years and you will be forced to become a trader (frequent buyer/seller) to lock in the profits

when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500

Been like this for a few years.
I think a blend of hold and trade is workable

 

[Logique]

Been like this for a few years. I think a blend of hold and trade is workable

A percentage drop on a Friday, this is not my favourite thing. But on balance, I'd rather be in this market than out. It still conforms to my technical criteria.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

yes I think you right Tech, got a few stocks which i think will sell if they head back up to a reasonable level

someone wrote in this thread a while back with their concerns about how the XAO is going to be able to get moving in a solid uptrend again

 

[Smurf1976]

when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500

An alternative view would be that we reached a top 9 years ago and have been in a secular bear ever since, upward moves being just a rally within that (albeit a rather long one).

There's plenty of historical precedents for such things internationally and they tend to last more than a decade from the top to the point at which substantial ongoing growth gets going again. I recall seeing some study which said the average length was 17 years although they were looking at major international markets not the ASX specifically. .

 

[Triathlete]

Taking this chart at face value probably headed down until at least early Nov

View attachment 67975

Well you predicted this one Gartley......

 

[gartley]

Thanks Triathlete)).

Two or three times a year opportunities like this appear where everything lines up and we get a good move. I think what happens in the next 4 weeks will tell us a lot about the prospects of World markets thereafter.
Will the FED levitation of US markets continue until after election and thereafter the whole deck of cards collapse or has it already started?

 

[peter2]

The ASX is a wimp, giving back all of it's overnight gains today.

 

[notting]

I hope the market does tomorrow what it should have done today.
Because I did this afternoon what I never, in my wildest fantasy, thought I would be able to do at about 8am.
It works sometimes.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Well this is a fun thread.

I guess compared to squabbling over the right way to bet on market fluctuations, it's too boring to just buy stocks for the really long term (5-30 years) as an investment vehicle from savings. But that is what I do every pay day after putting aside what I need to live for the month (I also keep a cash buffer worth 1 year of living expenses).

So, anyone else buying some boring stocks today? I bought some AFI...not exactly the XAO but close enough

Those businesses will keep chugglng along generating earnings and dividends while the price goes up and down from the gamblers...

 

[peter2]

Ok, let's please get back to the XAO.

It's shown us another corrective pull-back and the rising channel is very corrective in nature with each pull-back going below the second last high. Are we going to see a rally soon or has this pull-back got further to go?

I'm on the fence on that question because I don't want to have any real convictions. I prefer to trade what I see. Currently it's down and I'm waiting for it to stop and turn up. When it turns up I'll get lots of pull-back setups.

 

[Joe Blow]

Hi folks, I have decided to move the posts relating to Kelly's losing CFD trade to a new thread.

Those who wish to continue that discussion can find it here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31405

 

[qldfrog]

I do not know when this will hit the mainstream media/flavour of the day
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/those-big-income-gains-theyve-stalled-this-year-160228661.html
but you have all the numbers ready to justify the next US fall, and then our XAO bear market.
In short, the US economy is better but hardly

 

[notting]

Anyway..........
What are these market darlings - yielding, safe, infrastructure stocks, in very different industries, suddenly telling us about rotation and interest rate forplay!?

TLS

TCL

MQA

SYD

APA


PS As a bunch you may see safish short on MQA as it's yet to fall through its 200 day and by the looks of the others it's bound to!