WTF RBA rate cut

[Gundini]

It will be interesting to see what the RBA says/does when the interest rate hits 1% by mid next year and the economy is still $hite.

No chance at all... This is scaremungering at it's best....Sorry to say Puffy...

 

[drsmith]

I'll have an extended supply of baked beans and a breadmaker if that comes to pass.

 

[alphaman]

It will be interesting to see what the RBA says/does when the interest rate hits 1% by mid next year and the economy is still $hite.

Probably the same old "Australian economy is doing OK". I never find RBA comments interesting.

 

[Nyden]

No chance at all... This is scaremungering at it's best....Sorry to say Puffy...

Rates in the US aren't far off of that; and look at them. Don't say we're different

Never say never, is all.

 

[Naked shorts]

DONT WORRY so much guys, we can always just print money till the trees run out.

 

[Naked shorts]

No chance at all... This is scaremungering at it's best....Sorry to say Puffy...

Thats what everyone was saying about the bears before we tanked...

 

[tayser]

This is why I'll never gamble with newstrading

Wait for the initial move to do its thing, then take a few pips at high lots on the retrace, much easier and probability is no longer 50/50 like it is when you take a position before an announcement.

 

[Naked shorts]

How do you get a 125BP cut from that table?

Any ideas Nick?

@Taser
Some people call that getting the retrace, some call it catching knifes. In my experience doing what you have suggested is more risky then trading the news. Sure you can normally make a few pips when people close out, but there is normally no telling if it will shoot higher or tank back to normal (or vice versa).

I do enjoy 30pips more then I enjoy 3pips.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

This is why I'll never gamble with newstrading

Wait for the initial move to do its thing, then take a few pips at high lots on the retrace, much easier and probability is no longer 50/50 like it is when you take a position before an announcement.

every trade is a 50/50 Tayser no matter how good your edge may be.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Any ideas Nick?

@Taser
Some people call that getting the retrace, some call it catching knifes. In my experience doing what you have suggested is more risky then trading the news. Sure you can normally make a few pips when people close out, but there is normally no telling if it will shoot higher or tank back to normal (or vice versa).

I do enjoy 30pips more then I enjoy 3pips.

you have to remember Tayser is a scalper NakedS he may only want 3 - 9 pips on the trade.

 

[MRC & Co]

every trade is a 50/50 Tayser no matter how good your edge may be.

I wouldn't say that. Those who can read the flow end up with pretty solid probabilities. Freaks.

Being the first on totally unexpected news (like the IR cut 2 months ago), is practically free money.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Following the UK and Eurozone IR slashing last night, the Big Q is "will the RBA cut again before Xmas?"

It's a race to ZERO, folks!

What say you, Santa? :santa:

 

[Nick Radge]

"will the RBA cut again before Xmas?"

You can see the IR futures have priced in 30bp before end of Dec, but look at Feb, down to 3.5% and 3.0% in April 2009.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I wouldn't say that. Those who can read the flow end up with pretty solid probabilities. Freaks.

Being the first on totally unexpected news (like the IR cut 2 months ago), is practically free money.

I disagree here MRC as you can't make a trade no matter what even a arbi and tell me with 100% certinty that it will be a win no matter what.

If that was the case then trading would be easy and no one would work. I also had the opinion that you could have sure things but after reading trading from the zone I understood that there is no sure thing in the market no matter how good it looks.

IMO.

 

[IFocus]

You can see the IR futures have priced in 30bp before end of Dec, but look at Feb, down to 3.5% and 3.0% in April 2009.

I take it at those levels its pointing to a crunch in the economy, negative growth.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I take it at those levels its pointing to a crunch in the economy, negative growth.

With the news out of China justs getting worse (almost by the day it seems), how can we possibly hope to rebound? ATM there is only one clear direction. Down. Rapidly falling IR's are a reflection of that sentiment.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Following the UK and Eurozone IR slashing last night, the Big Q is "will the RBA cut again before Xmas?"

FYI the RBA does not meet again until the first tues in Feb as far as I can tell.

So the short answer is NO.

 

[MRC & Co]

I disagree here MRC as you can't make a trade no matter what even a arbi and tell me with 100% certinty that it will be a win no matter what.

If that was the case then trading would be easy and no one would work. I also had the opinion that you could have sure things but after reading trading from the zone I understood that there is no sure thing in the market no matter how good it looks.

IMO.

Yeh, not 100% sure, of course.

But probabilities for some traders can be higher than 50/50 for sure.

Some do find trading easy, surprisingly.

 

[Aussiejeff]

FYI the RBA does not meet again until the first tues in Feb as far as I can tell.

So the short answer is NO.

I'm not so sure about the negative.

I suspect if the economy tanks in the interim an "extraordinary meeting" may be held by the RBA to slash rates again.

Shirley, the GuvMint and the RBA aren't going to be hawg-tied by an inflexible "set holiday" period during a time of Great Need!!