WOW - Woolworths Group

[Triathlete]

Hi Triathlete,

I see one scenario that could develop, as it would look better if that long term trendline is reached https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=859904&viewfull=1#post859904

The entire structure could develop a 3-3-5 Flat, but the ~29 bottom is an ultimate target here.
But probably it is just a bearish judgement which is a consequence of the decline and my limbic system tries to resist the fact that trend has changed and it is looking for alternatives instead of focusing on uptrend. I personaly think that 29 bottom will not be breached. I am looking forward to even slightest opportunity to buy WOW taking more risk than usuall.


View attachment 61703

This is the scenario that I am hoping will play out now.One more move down as shown on your chart before heading back up towards the highs.Only time will tell!!

 

[nulla nulla]

While I find the Elliot Waves views interesting, I personally think they are a bit "hindsight" and it would appear that even Elliot Wavers can apply different interpretations as to what waves apply to the same charts.

In my opinion, if you consider the Woolworths price movement for the past two years in respect of their growth and profitability, the only way you can explain a 20% price drop is negative feedback from analysts, guiding a herd driven sell off. Woolworths is still the market leader in the Groceries and alcohol retail sector (and hotels). Coles was a mess, was taken over and is making big inroads in improving their act and market share (realistically they only had one way to go) however, their gains have not been at the Woolworths expense.

The analysts that drove the share sell off pushed the share price down to a level where other analysts told their clients to buy (gotta love this game). Now the share price is climbing back to where it is only 10% down on previous levels and another quarterly report is due.

Personally I don't see the share price "waving" down to sub $30.00 new lows. I suspect that , while the report may show a slowing growth, profitability will be at acceptable levels due to "price deflation" maintaining margins combined with a reduction in costs through improved in-store efficiencies. You would think that this, in a period of reduced public discretionary spending, is more likely to be well received by analysts than not.

I suspect a share price climb to the range $34.50 to $35.50 is more likely than a leg down to sub $30.00. Then again I'm not a financial adviser and second guessing analysts is even harder than second guessing the market. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[Triathlete]

While I find the Elliot Waves views interesting, I personally think they are a bit "hindsight" and it would appear that even Elliot Wavers can apply different interpretations as to what waves apply to the same charts.

Yes EW is a subjective tool to use as one part of your analysis.

Rather than hindsight I prefer to call it " Trade on confirmation ,not speculation"

 

[rb250660]

You bloke crack me up with your EW.

 

[nulla nulla]

Up $0.84 as I type ($34.16) on solid turnover. Curiously Wesfarmers went ex-div today but is down $0.35 more than the div.

Maybe someone has leaked the WOW report?

 

[rimtas]

While I find the Elliot Waves views interesting, I personally think they are a bit "hindsight" and it would appear that even Elliot Wavers can apply different interpretations as to what waves apply to the same charts.

In my opinion, if you consider the Woolworths price movement for the past two years in respect of their growth and profitability, the only way you can explain a 20% price drop is negative feedback from analysts, guiding a herd driven sell off. Woolworths is still the market leader in the Groceries and alcohol retail sector (and hotels). Coles was a mess, was taken over and is making big inroads in improving their act and market share (realistically they only had one way to go) however, their gains have not been at the Woolworths expense.

The analysts that drove the share sell off pushed the share price down to a level where other analysts told their clients to buy (gotta love this game). Now the share price is climbing back to where it is only 10% down on previous levels and another quarterly report is due.

Personally I don't see the share price "waving" down to sub $30.00 new lows. I suspect that , while the report may show a slowing growth, profitability will be at acceptable levels due to "price deflation" maintaining margins combined with a reduction in costs through improved in-store efficiencies. You would think that this, in a period of reduced public discretionary spending, is more likely to be well received by analysts than not.

I suspect a share price climb to the range $34.50 to $35.50 is more likely than a leg down to sub $30.00. Then again I'm not a financial adviser and second guessing analysts is even harder than second guessing the market. As always do your own research and good luck.

Hi nulla nulla,
I do find you fundamental analysis interesting, but I personaly think that it is a bit "wishfull thinking" and it would appear that every person applying fundamental analysis can find a different reasons for the stock to rise/decline from the same report/balance sheet.

When they do not understand why stock is not "reacting" to report and earnings as it supposed to, they just simply blame someone else, usually analysts and media reporters. And they just love to explain the past market movements.
I am really exiting when everyday I have a neverending opportunity to see how people are interpreting todays news to predict future trends. And they always fail. And next day the same begins, as if they are just born in the morning again with no past memory whatsoever. It is awesome! You gotta love this game when people try to find exogenous causes to the system that is operating only on endogenous ones.

I am also exited when almost every post is ending with "I am not a financial adviser", "do you own research" and similar. It's like an excuse to your own opinion, which you think is most likely wrong, so the post is wrapped in a probability frame that author can get out dry of the water later.

Sorry if you find this a bit rude, but I just love when people concoct using market fundamentals as a basis for their entry/exit points or direction overall.

In WOW case I found very funny the fact that analysts issued sell recommendation and the market indeed crashed. And when it crashed, they(analysts) predicted(again) that WOW profit will slide until 2017, that was close to the WOW bottom of $29. And even on this forum everyone took it very seriously...now when WOW started a new bull wave, analysts are ducks again.... It is just never ending fun

 

[Julia]

I'm not interested in WOW at present, but if I were looking for some guidelines and sensible analysis, I'd be going for Nulla Nulla's remarks.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm not interested in WOW at present, but if I were looking for some guidelines and sensible analysis, I'd be going for Nulla Nulla's remarks.

The only interest I have in WOW is as a possible take over target.

Don't own any, but will buy sub $30.

 

[Triathlete]

Up $0.84 as I type ($34.16) on solid turnover. Curiously Wesfarmers went ex-div today but is down $0.35 more than the div.

Maybe someone has leaked the WOW report?

I would make this one assessment and I really only use volume when trading short term moves.

The share price has been moving up but on falling weekly volume over the past 4 weeks this would indicate that the move up is not really being supported and with an overhead trendline just above or at least where price is today I would be keeping an eye on it for any type of reversal in price.
If you have been on WOW for this last rise I would lock in the profits in my opinion short term at least if price does turn.

Price is also rising due to the dividend coming up same as what just happened to WES.


It is far better to see volume rising with share price rising this will at least give some confidence that the rise is being well and truly supported.

 

[nulla nulla]

Hi nulla nulla, ....
When they do not understand why stock is not "reacting" to report and earnings as it supposed to, they just simply blame someone else........

I don't allocate "blame" I simply trade the opportunities that arise from market movements driven by herd mood swings.

...I am also exited when almost every post is ending with "I am not a financial adviser", "do you own research" and similar. It's like an excuse to your own opinion, which you think is most likely wrong, so the post is wrapped in a probability frame that author can get out dry of the water later.

I do tend to add a disclaimer of sorts to my posts as I would hate for anyone to make a financial decision based on my opinionated posts and subsequently lose their hard earned money.

Sorry if you find this a bit rude, but I just love when people concoct using market fundamentals as a basis for their entry/exit points or direction overall.

I don't find your comments rude, simply an expression of your opinion which you are entitled to do. As I said previously I find your EW views interesting and you do add quite a bit of detail to support your perspective. I also note that most predictions have an "either/or" perspective and a little caution.

In WOW case I found very funny the fact that analysts issued sell recommendation and the market indeed crashed. And when it crashed, they(analysts) predicted(again) that WOW profit will slide until 2017, that was close to the WOW bottom of $29. And even on this forum everyone took it very seriously...now when WOW started a new bull wave, analysts are ducks again.... It is just never ending fun

I'm not sure every one took the profit slide projections of some analysts seriously as other analyst were projecting a recovery at the same time. As I said above, I just trade the opportunities. And yes, it is fun.

 

[tech/a]

Bloody herd -----why cant they just do as the experts say!

I also note that most predictions have an "either/or" perspective and a little caution.

I'm not sure every one took the profit slide projections of some analysts seriously as other analyst were projecting a recovery at the same time.

Hahahahaha

 

[rimtas]

I don't allocate "blame" I simply trade the opportunities that arise from market movements driven by herd mood swings.

That's the note from technician, and the words "herd" and "mood" are the fundamental basis of wave principle. I just wondering that maybe you are the undercover eliotician
People using fundamental analysis deny the influence of the mood and the herd to them is the thing that can be manipulated with reports, analysts and news. Like a stick in the wind-it leans where the wind blows.
Elioticians on the contrary understand that market is the wind, and the rest is the stick.

Anyyway, I missed two great stocks to buy at the bottom- BHP and WOW. They won't offer return I am seeking if I buy them now, so unless a big correction sets in, I'll leave them.

 

[nulla nulla]

That's the note from technician, and the words "herd" and "mood" are the fundamental basis of wave principle. I just wondering that maybe you are the undercover eliotician

I had to look that up. An Elliotician appears to be some-one that uses Elliot Wave concepts as a basis to predict where the market (or a share) is going. Definitely not me .

People using fundamental analysis deny the influence of the mood and the herd to them is the thing that can be manipulated with reports, analysts and news. Like a stick in the wind-it leans where the wind blows. Elioticians on the contrary understand that market is the wind, and the rest is the stick. .

This is deep. A bit like the Kung Fu teacher instructing "Grasshopper". While I use F/A I can't deny the influence of "mood" and the "herd". The "mood" of the "herd" is so often influenced by analyst assessment of reports and news. Analysts come out with opinions that performance was above expectation and rate a company as a "buy" or "hold". However if their assessment is that the report or news is not up to expectations, the analysts can just as easily rate a share as a "sell" and their subscribers respond accordingly.

A late broker, who shall not be named, is credited with buying shares low, then publishing in his news letter that these shares are a "buy", then selling his previously purchased shares into a rising market. Or shorting a share then rating it in his news letter as a "sell", then buying back in when his clients had pushed the share price down. The herd simply followed his analysis and the market moved accordingly.

I guess I see the "market" more as the movement of the herd rather than as the "wind" or the "stick". If the herd drives the share price too low (in my opinion), I see a buy opportunity and I will gleefully jump in for a trade. The trade can be same day, T1 or as long as it takes for me to exit with a profit I'm happy with. Sometimes I may have to wait longer than I care for for the "herd" "mood" to come back into sync with my perspective. I don't jump in for long term holds (investing). I prefer to turn my capital over quickly and lock in returns.

Anyyway, I missed two great stocks to buy at the bottom- BHP and WOW. They won't offer return I am seeking if I buy them now, so unless a big correction sets in, I'll leave them.

Personally I'm not keen on BHP, I find it too difficult to follow. Being listed on two exchanges, with a buy back underway, a decoupling and a falling Iron ore price, I reckon there are better recurring opportunities else-where. Woolworths however seems to present recurring opportunities every time it issues a sales update followed by their half yearly or full year reports.

 

[nulla nulla]

The Woolworths Half Year Report is out as well as the Analyst Presentation. It will be interesting to see if the reports is above or below expectations and how the market reacts.

With half an hour to go before open, the early indications are a sell down. Mind you at this point the match price of $31.80 is heavily influenced by one early seller of 155,000 shares with a nominated sell price of $25.00.

 

[JellySausage]

Down 9.4% to $30.75 today.

Starting to look juicy.

 

[nulla nulla]

Woolworths closed down $3.24 at $30.71. Wesfarmers finished down $1.59 also. Might be something more than just the negative report for Woolworths.?

 

[JTLP]

Saw this result coming (but not by this big of a margin!). It was clear that their home improvements not up to Bunnings in a big way and Big W was a problem child. The fact they also made a heap of staff redundant recently should have painted a clearer picture.

Nulla - do you think Wesfarmers were brought down due to WOW's result? Seems the most plausible that the market is pricing in slower growth.

 

[skc]

Nulla - do you think Wesfarmers were brought down due to WOW's result? Seems the most plausible that the market is pricing in slower growth.

Yes... despite the fact that WES only reported last week.

I guess if WOW was to start fighting harder, WES is going to get some bruises...

 

[notting]

They just have to come up with a down down campaign that was as happy and effective as Coles and they will slaughter them. Masters is a distraction but they should stick to their guns, make it hard for WES to leverage off it.
I don't know how bout We'll beat it by 5% on any super market item!

 

[tech/a]

Down 9.4% to $30.75 today.

Starting to look juicy.

Why on earth would a Fundamental follower see WOW as juicy.
If fundamentals looks at Value and doesn't follow the herd then
negative AND positive announcements are ignored?
OR
Is it just the negative ones.

Surely the total landscape of the Company is affected by earnings?
Its happened NOW.
So what buy up!!

Might be something more than just the negative report for Woolworths.?

I guess I see the "market" more as the movement of the herd rather than as the "wind" or the "stick".

This is not the herd----Is it?

Woolworths however seems to present recurring opportunities every time it issues a sales update followed by their half yearly or full year reports.

So what is your view now?

My view is not a lot different to DEC 3rd.