WOW - Woolworths Group

[Triathlete]

Hey there Tri. I'm not Elliot Wave or Fibonacci orientated so I don't want to go down that chart path. However I have run a test on WOW and a index of stocks using an exit of 10% but the exit is from any Highest High Price. Since you noted that 10% pullback would be an exit from this years peak. You also would buy WOW in an uptrend so that could be a new high price being made (historical reference high ??). The results were in line with trend following strategies. WOW is a good example of a long term up trending stock.

I am sure it would help your trading and keep you safe in the markets if you new Elliot wave , Fibonacci/Gann levels.

I was only using the 10% pullback as an example in regards to the "stop loss thread is not your friend thread" and whether getting out there for one person would have been the right time for the second person to start accumulating at that time.

For me it would have depended on whether I thought the stock had further to run or not....I may have let it pull back further it just all depends on my strategy at the time and where it was in relation to its Elliot wave and Fibonacci /Gann ,strongest support and resistance levels at the time.

Just because a stock makes a new high does not mean it is in a confirmed uptrend...A trader/investor needs to confirm this on his chart. This is an important point because in my experience you always trade with the trend and not against it. I am sure you have heard the saying "The Trend is your Friend" but it needs to be confirmed!!

It is always good to have two scenarios before you trade , that is how far is the stock likely to run and how far could it fall if it goes pear shape...you need to understand these scenarios so it does not play with your psycology if the trade does not go as you had hope , so best to know this upfront before you trade and what your exit strategy will be!!

 

[rimtas]

I think bottom of wave ((iii)) is close, as waves look quite good.
Either one more low after pop up, or rally straight away, but the slowing momentum and countable subdivisions makes a good case that a bottom is near. I th

 

[JTLP]

I think bottom of wave ((iii)) is close, as waves look quite good.
Either one more low after pop up, or rally straight away, but the slowing momentum and countable subdivisions makes a good case that a bottom is near. I th

Thanks Rimtas.

Based on that, where do you see wave 5 landing (if I am interpreting correctly) for both price and time period?

 

[rimtas]

It should land before Christmas, maybe even this week, somewhere very close to 29. I will be looking for an Impulse wave up in 15 min time frame to confirm a change in trend.

 

[rimtas]

Today structure best looks as a "five", which confirms that uptrend is in progress. I will be looking for a correction in coming days as Wave (b), and then a new leg of advance towards 32 with wave (c).

If it continues to rise without wave (b), then I would consider the entire advance from ~29 bottom as an (a) wave of a larger Triangle, but it should be at least of 7 waves and end at ~32 price area(+/-).
I will update charts as waves unfold, trying to predict tops and bottoms of completed waves at various degrees.

 

[Triathlete]

Just updated my WOW weekly trading chart seems like it is all down at present. $29 is still an important level but should it close below here,then it is all down for WOW in my opinion.

Anyone else like to share their own views.

As always do your own analysis this is not financial advice.

 

[seven7]

Hi
I don't know about anyone else here. But its Woolworths we're talking about here. Yeah I know masters might flop, it may break even,,,,maybe even do ok. Woolworths will still survive in some form.

This company has been around all my life. So I'm going to start buying. If it gets to $29, well great, but under $30 is close enough for me to have a look. They seem to be opening shops all over the place.

To put it in perspective I am looking at buying etf bonds, etf oz shares and etf world shares also. The ONLY 3 individual shares I want to own (and I am a simple blue collar guy selling a few houses in sydney) are CBA (tick at less than half current prices) AGL (tick - I look at this one like a bond, it wont make much but slow and steady - good enough) and Woolworths (soon - and just because it is Woolworths). I am happy with a 4% franked dividend from them and they are well over this.

my breakdown hopefully will end up something like
25% Bonds - VGB
25% OZ ETF - VAS or VHY which ever is safer
25% World ETF - VGS or probably VGSAD
25% OZ individual shares - CBA,AGL and WOW

I'll be buying VGB and WOW over the next few months. While everyone is scared about WOW I will buy.....slowly and carefully.

I realise there is overlap with the OZ ETF and my individual shares, but what can I do. Our market is dominated by a few banks and 2 supermarkets.

I may be wrong...I have no real knowledge on anything but have been lucky so far. Also I am older now and wont get the pension so am chasing dividends.

cheers

 

[rimtas]

slowly and carefully.

Hi,

Could you please shed some light on how the buying process in a "slowly and carefully" manner is processed?

 

[seven7]

Hi Rimtas

and thankyou for your interest.

I have been selling houses and buying shares in my own transition to retirement for some years now. So to answer your question as best I can. My version of slowly and carefully is that I feel its a good time to buy govt bonds right now. Reasoning ... the s--t hasn't hit the fan yet so they are ok (and that's good enough if keeping long term) buying.
For WOW...they are at a low right now...so if I see on any particular day they are hitting a low...yeah I will put in a buy if I feel like it.
Slowly and carefully is an individual thing. Each person is different. I am investing proceeds from sales, have no debt and looking to 'carefully' as best I can invest. My $1 slow investment might be your $10 equivalent.

I am comfortable with my choices - that's the careful part. Do you really think Woolworths will start closing their stores? It will probably be my most risky investment EVER! So in proportion, for me anyway I am ok with that.

I am always willing to learn.........ETF's seem good to me esp with the Gov Bond aspect. But, some things are also worth a look. For me WOW is one of these things.

Of course,, I will probably be wrong on this. As I am retiring on my own hard earned...why wouldn't I be!

Cheers

 

[coolcup]

I feel its a good time to buy govt bonds right now. Reasoning ... the s--t hasn't hit the fan yet so they are ok (and that's good enough if keeping long term) buying.
Cheers

Hi Seven7

Out of interest, and I don't mean to hijack the woolworths thread, but I was wondering what your view is on interest rates? Do you think they are likely to go up over the next few years or go down?

 

[rimtas]

Today's low of 29,56 could mark the bottom for wave (b), which corrected fib 76,4% of wave (a). I would allow for one more push down for better and more complete wave subdivisions, but market could rally from here in wave (c).

I expect that the entire correction of wave ((iv))(circled) will be some sort of sideways movement, resulting in flat(even expanded with new lows), or Triangle which could go into March. Maybe it will sport a Quashi Fractal copying a previous wave (iv) of ((iii))(circled), resulting in Flat.
Other options also available, and to tell in advance which one will occur is impossible until it's close to the end, but as wave ((ii))(circled) was a sharp advance, this correction has many chances to be sideways movement.

After wave ((iv)) is done WOW should decline to new lows(below 29,12). But at the moment, short term trading opportunity is at hand, offering in excess of 5% price rise from current levels.

 

[rimtas]

Slowly and carefully is an individual thing.

I am comfortable with my choices - that's the careful part.
Cheers

Hi Seven,
and thank you for your reply

I thought you just push the "buy" button very slowly and carefully

 

[Triathlete]

Today's low of 29,56 could mark the bottom for wave (b), which corrected fib 76,4% of wave (a). I would allow for one more push down for better and more complete wave subdivisions, but market could rally from here in wave (c).

I expect that the entire correction of wave ((iv))(circled) will be some sort of sideways movement, resulting in flat(even expanded with new lows), or Triangle which could go into March. Maybe it will sport a Quashi Fractal copying a previous wave (iv) of ((iii))(circled), resulting in Flat.
Other options also available, and to tell in advance which one will occur is impossible until it's close to the end, but as wave ((ii))(circled) was a sharp advance, this correction has many chances to be sideways movement.

After wave ((iv)) is done WOW should decline to new lows(below 29,12). But at the moment, short term trading opportunity is at hand, offering in excess of 5% price rise from current levels.


View attachment 61009

Thanks Rimtas for your current assessment on WOW.

 

[rimtas]

Wave (c) was a tough ride, but finally we are here. It started with overlapping structure, and I was thinking that the entire wave ((iv)) will morph into a Triangle, but at this stage it appears that wave (c) is taking a shape of Expanding Ending Diagonal, with final subdivisions to ~$32 left. It would also hit an extreme of wave (iv) of ((iii)) at the same level, so many resistance here.

Later I expect a swift reversal to new lows, and if this happens, I will discuss alternate scenarios that could point to an ultimate bottom in WOW.
Technically wave ((iv)) could rise towards ~33, but the wave structure for reversal looks best now.

 

[rimtas]

The ongoing price action for WOW is flashing an alarm signal for the previous count, as the advance from 29.10 bottom looks too big to be the part of 3 wave in terms of time. The key level is 33,11 which if breached throw the previous expectations for one more leg down to the bin, leaving the wave structure with 7 waves from 2014 Top, which is corrective. This means new ATH ahead with no new lower bottom.

Wave structure is unclear at the moment, but if the bottom is in, it looks best as a series first and second waves.
I have WES in my portfolio and it tends to move more or less together with WOW from the most recent bottom of DEC 2014. WES wave structure is Impulsive and indicates higher prices ahead.

I will wait a little bit as the situation should resolve soon-WOW either reaches 33,11 or start to decline from here, resolving a correct operative count.

 

[nulla nulla]

Woolworths closed on Friday at $33.26. Recently, Woolworths has been the beneficiary of a lot of support lifting the share price off the lows that followed the release of their First Quarter report. Last quarter the analysts deemed that the report wasn't good enough and recommended their clients sell.




The Half Year Profit Report is due out on Friday 27 February. It will be interesting to see the analysts reaction as to whether they consider that the Woolworths sales and profit are up to expectations or not. Sometime I wonder what these professional analysts really expect, when a company the size of Woolworths can report market growth and increased profitability year in and year out but get bagged for not reaching some hypothetical analyst target.

I wonder if the Elliot Wavers would like to forecast, before this Friday, the share price movement for the next few weeks?

 

[rimtas]

It is hard to forecast anything if there is no pattern upon which a forecast can be made. Usually I do not go blindly and wait for the count to resolve itself before acting or making a forecast.
One thing is clear-WOW overlapped with 33.11 level, and in this way it negated not even a medium, bet a long term structure as well. It doesn't make much difference to the expected direction, just to labelling. And of course the fact that the bottom was missed.


I'll be going forward with the count bellow. What it needs now is to sport a "five" from the ~29 bottom. Only weekly chart shows that this can be happening now and WOW will enter into decline next few weeks, but in no way it can penetrate 29 bottom. The problem with this count is that at lesser time frames than weekly the supposed (iii) wave has an overlap, so better is to wait for the count to resolve itself because there are too many alternatives at this point what could happen.
RSI at the bottom of the chart clearly indicates that uptrend is forming.

There are few ways to label the decline from 2014 top because it is a 7 wave decline, but I'll go with the simplest ABC. And at this point it doesn't actually matter (labelling).

When making this analysis I just noticed that the ~29 bottom was at Fib 61,8% retrace level, how could I missed this? This is a complete fail for me, because I usually manage to buy a stock no more than 5% from it's bottom, and in most cases this doesn't exceed 1%. Well, maybe it will decline soon providing another opportunity, just higher. I am happy that I've managed to buy other stocks back in Nov-Dec 2014 and my portfolio is well above +10% since then.

 

[Triathlete]

Woolworths closed on Friday at $33.26. Recently, Woolworths has been the beneficiary of a lot of support lifting the share price off the lows that followed the release of their First Quarter report. Last quarter the analysts deemed that the report wasn't good enough and recommended their clients sell.

I wonder if the Elliot Wavers would like to forecast, before this Friday, the share price movement for the next few weeks?

I am expecting price to find resistance at between $33.21 and $ 34.18 a natural resistance level also exists at $33.55.

The down trend line is also an overhead resistance to price moving higher so it will be interesting to see what happens here and if we get a good result it may break through otherwise I would expect it to turn down and complete its wave C back at the lower levels as before.

 

[rimtas]

Hi Triathlete,
How you see your wave C subdivisions if WOW makes lower bottom? It can't be "five"(due to overlap), and it can't be Expanding Ending Diagonal as wave 1 and 3 (of your C) are fives.
I see one scenario that could develop, as it would look better if that long term trendline is reached https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=859904&viewfull=1#post859904

The entire structure could develop a 3-3-5 Flat, but the ~29 bottom is an ultimate target here.
But probably it is just a bearish judgement which is a consequence of the decline and my limbic system tries to resist the fact that trend has changed and it is looking for alternatives instead of focusing on uptrend. Even my misses started to shop at Wollies last week, she did not shop here for more than 6 months(she said Coles were better). I personaly think that 29 bottom will not be breached. I am looking forward to even slightest opportunity to buy WOW taking more risk than usuall.

 

[Triathlete]

Hi Triathlete,
How you see your wave C subdivisions if WOW makes lower bottom? It can't be "five"(due to overlap), and it can't be Expanding Ending Diagonal as wave 1 and 3 (of your C) are fives.
I see one scenario that could develop, as it would look better if that long term trendline is reached https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=859904&viewfull=1#post859904

The entire structure could develop a 3-3-5 Flat, but the ~29 bottom is an ultimate target here.
But probably it is just a bearish judgement which is a consequence of the decline and my limbic system tries to resist the fact that trend has changed and it is looking for alternatives instead of focusing on uptrend. Even my misses started to shop at Wollies last week, she did not shop here for more than 6 months(she said Coles were better). I personaly think that 29 bottom will not be breached. I am looking forward to even slightest opportunity to buy WOW taking more risk than usuall.

Hi Rimtas,
Yes the overlap has me confused in regards to the subdivisions of wave C that's why I did not put them on the chart. I am just using my price tables,50% retracement level and the overhead Trendline to base the call and just waiting to see how it will play out. If the Trendline is broken then I will need to reassess my opinions as my previous price tables showed no real resistance in price until back at the previous High.