WOW - Woolworths Group

[SilverRanger]

WOW should put their shares in next week's "Cheap, Cheap" catalogue too, maybe then people will pick up a share or two while doing their grocery shopping (and earn some Qantas flyer points). Bought some at market close yesterday, hoping for 29.11 to hold a bit and perhaps get some dead cat bounce in the next couple of days.

Since WOW's report, WOW is down 13.7%, while MTS down 6.7% and WES down 4.7%, I would expect MTS and WES to "catch up" a bit if the race to the bottom continues.

 

[So_Cynical]

WOW should put their shares in next week's "Cheap, Cheap" catalogue too, maybe then people will pick up a share or two while doing their grocery shopping

The first time i looked at WOW (a long time ago) it was $9, so going forward any price above that doesn't look cheap.

 

[Value Collector]

I am scared, too. Almost to death.

Really? It's just share price fluctuations.

Emotions can be your worst enemy.

For all the TA analysis / tea leaf and chicken entrails reading you mentioned above, what has changed at the business level?

Spending more time understanding businesses fundamentals and the operations of the underlying businesses may help relieve you of the wild emotions you may experience when your focusing on the short term price movements of a stock.

 

[Value Collector]

The first time i looked at WOW (a long time ago) it was $9, so going forward any price above that doesn't look cheap.

I thought it was cheap when it dropped from a bit over $6 to $4.70 back in the 90's. I recommended my mothers friend buy some, she did (brave lady taking investment advice from a 16 year old) she still owns them, your $9 figure would have repulsed me, although as it turns out, $9 is indeed a very cheap price.

I think if we look back in another 15years, $29 will look just as cheap as your $9 looks today.

 

[tech/a]

Really? It's just share price fluctuations.

Emotions can be your worst enemy.

For all the TA analysis / tea leaf and chicken entrails reading you mentioned above, what has changed at the business level?

Spending more time understanding businesses fundamentals and the operations of the underlying businesses may help relieve you of the wild emotions you may experience when your focusing on the short term price movements of a stock.

He's got it spot on bouncing off support.

What's changed.
AUD
Competition and that's always changing.
Obviously profitability.

Lots of opportunity with short term movements.
Funny mentals are just as much chicken entrails as tea leaves to the masses---unless your the CFO.
If you think everything you need to know about a business is in its balance sheet --- your as un informed as those who you think are ---Un informed

 

[McLovin]

Small market duopoly with very weak competitor = happy days

Small saturated market duopoly with strong competitor = not happy, Jan.

I think we started this discussion back in 2011 in this thread? Now the chickens come home to roost.

 

[Value Collector]

Obviously profitability.

the profitability of their core business increased, it's only a write down of stock at Big W and the home improvement division that were the anchors dragging down the NPAT.

and the NPAT was only down 3%, Hardly a reason to panic.

 

[PennD]

Really? It's just share price fluctuations.

Emotions can be your worst enemy.

For all the TA analysis / tea leaf and chicken entrails reading you mentioned above, what has changed at the business level?

Spending more time understanding businesses fundamentals and the operations of the underlying businesses may help relieve you of the wild emotions you may experience when your focusing on the short term price movements of a stock.

I'm pretty sure he was taking the piss... Why would he be scared when he forecast it on a chart here just a week before...??? His "tea leaves" saw this coming almost to the dime.

Great work Rimtas!!!

 

[tech/a]

This is amazing for 27/02 call.

 

[qldfrog]

I thought it was cheap when it dropped from a bit over $6 to $4.70 back in the 90's. I recommended my mothers friend buy some, she did (brave lady taking investment advice from a 16 year old) she still owns them, your $9 figure would have repulsed me, although as it turns out, $9 is indeed a very cheap price.

I think if we look back in another 15years, $29 will look just as cheap as your $9 looks today.

I was wondering what 5$ in the 90's would be in nowadays dollars->around 9.5$
http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html
so not bad an investment if you add the dividends along the way...
but same as real estate some of these trends may be hard to duplicate

 

[rimtas]

Really? It's just share price fluctuations.
Emotions can be your worst enemy.
.

Read between the lines, mate. It was a sarcasm. As an elliotician, I know better than anyone else how market affects emotions and what it means.

Spending more time understanding businesses fundamentals and the operations of the underlying businesses may help relieve you of the wild emotions you may experience when your focusing on the short term price movements of a stock.

Why spend at least a minute by reading fundamentals while focusing on a short term fluctuations? You think that if you made bad decision and your position is in the red, you just read a nice report and thus pain will go away? Yes, it will help to relieve you of the wild emotions...read more and more until any size of the unrealized loss won't matter anymore. Just don't forget that market is forming fundamentals of the company, not vice versa.

 

[tech/a]

I had a nibble at 29.50 today.

Nibbling?

 

[galumay]

Just don't forget that market is forming fundamentals of the company, not vice versa.

LOL! Its funny to see how people form world views so diametrically opposed, I know it aint going to change but you really have to wonder. The absolute conviction of those in both camps to be certain they are right and the others are wrong is reminiscent of a religious belief - not only are the unbelievers wrong, but they will lose their souls (money) as well!!

From the side of the fence i sit on I just shake my head when I read stuff like this, but then I have seen enough of the head shaking from those sitting on the other side to realise they think we are all mad!

Not sure what the solution is, maybe we need 2 ASFs! A FA one and a TA one, the WOW thread is a good example for me, i click on it fairly often when i see its had posts made, but inevitably the posts over the last couple of months have had graphs and gobbly gook analysis that actually makes me laugh when i read it because i find it so ridiculous.

I am sure there are other company threads with an FA focus that cause the same reaction from the TA disciples.

Anyway I am dragging this off topic, but it does seem to be an endless debate and I dont think one person has been 'converted' from one belief system to another since the last holy crusade!

 

[Julia]

And then there are those of us who take something from both approaches. Plenty of people will choose their universe of potential stocks on the basis of their sound fundamentals, but find an understanding of price action adds far more to their profitability than just focusing on what someone estimates 'should' be 'value' for that company.

I don't see any need to rubbish or deride any approach. There are also going to be different aspirations at different times of life, whether generating an income from capital or alternatively regarding investing as a sideline interest whilst living on a salary when obviously it would be more realistic to take a longer term approach if that was what appealed to you.

 

[galumay]

And then there are those of us who take something from both approaches. Plenty of people will choose their universe of potential stocks on the basis of their sound fundamentals, but find an understanding of price action adds far more to their profitability than just focusing on what someone estimates 'should' be 'value' for that company.

I don't see any need to rubbish or deride any approach. There are also going to be different aspirations at different times of life, whether generating an income from capital or alternatively regarding investing as a sideline interest whilst living on a salary when obviously it would be more realistic to take a longer term approach if that was what appealed to you.

I get where you are coming from Julia, but those who take some from both approaches are probably considered 'at error' by both sides!! For example, when you say "but find an understanding of price action adds far more to their profitability" it implies to me that price action is actually understandable and for it to be any use, able to be predicted with some level of certainty. That is completely at odds with my world view, and i am hardly on my pat malone there!!

The reality is there is a lot of derison and rubbishing goes on, and its not surprising given the almost religious fervour of attachment.

 

[Ves]

Just don't forget that market is forming fundamentals of the company, not vice versa.

My understanding is that you are referring to the wealth effect. The hypothesis is basically that real or perceived increases in wealth (ie. from increased prices in the property or share markets) leads to increased consumption in the general economy and the inverse leads to decreased consumption. It does make intuitive sense in theory.

But it is interesting.... because economists reviewing actual data have been torn over this concept for a very long time. There are lots of studies out there, but none of them are really that conclusive. I would be interested if you could share some of the papers / research that influenced your position.

Here is an article from Forbes last year that outlines insights on the Wealth Effect concept, both for and against:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investopedia/2014/01/28/a-study-on-the-wealth-effect-and-the-economy/

I am sure that DeepState if he is reading this thread would be able to add a lot more than I could.

 

[tech/a]

There is a need for a discussion thread
NOT T/A V F/A
But a place where understanding of each can be shared.
Those interested should be able to share views over there.

 

[rimtas]

My understanding is that you are referring to the wealth effect.
.

Hi Ves, acctually never heard of that. When I meant that market is forming a fundamentals i do not meant some sort of hypotesis, because this is a naked fact. Market in general is people, people go and buy stuff (simply put), creating wealth for a company and all the numbers in balance sheet. It is simple as that. When I said market, I don't meant ctock market, I meant the part of population who participate in economic activity. So people's actions create fundamentals of the economy, company or any other stuff you buy and sell in financal markets..

I see that my TA stuff posts created some sort of turmoil and there are many unhappy people here about this, so my apologies on this. I do not want to be responsible if someone falls from the fence and breaks his neck.

From now on I will post my thoughts about market and any stocks only in Elliott Wave and XAO thread.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&page=20&highlight=xao

So meet you there. Problem solved.
Cheers

 

[galumay]

When I said market, I don't meant stock market, I meant the part of population who participate in economic activity. So people's actions create fundamentals of the economy, company or any other stuff you buy and sell in financal markets..

Well there you go, shows the danger of making assumptions!! I for one also thought that you were suggesting the stock market, creating the fundamentals. My bad, apologies!

I see that my TA stuff posts created some sort of turmoil and there are many unhappy people here about this, so my apologies on this. I do not want to be responsible if someone falls from the fence and breaks his neck.

Cheers

I dont think thats the case, and i dont think you need to apologise, i was reflecting on the different world views we hold, and my total misunderstanding of your post added to that. I dont think you should have to go and post anywhere else, at least half of the members likely share your world view and will be very interested in your analysis.

Perhaps more to the point my post should have been posted elsewhere, rather than doing exactly what i have accused others of, and hijacking a thread to my own purpose.

The internets is not always the best form of communication and I am sorry if my ramblings have caused you offence.

 

[Julia]

I get where you are coming from Julia, but those who take some from both approaches are probably considered 'at error' by both sides!!

I don't know. I personally don't consider anyone 'at error'. We should all find a place which works for us. People taking what is useful from each approach would seem to indicate a mindset more open to what is possible than people who say "oh, only my approach works so everything else is laughable."

For example, when you say "but find an understanding of price action adds far more to their profitability" it implies to me that price action is actually understandable and for it to be any use, able to be predicted with some level of certainty.

I don't want to be discourteous, galumay, but you are putting your own definition on 'price action', I have never seen anyone claim that they can accurately predict what price will do.

That is completely at odds with my world view, and i am hardly on my pat malone there!!

Let's not continue to derail the WOW thread, but you give the clear impression that you give no credit to the experience, knowledge and profitability of many of the people here who take an approach different from your own. That, of course, is your right but it seems an unnecessarily narrow view.