Worst Reccession for years, fact or fiction?

[jonojpsg]

To be honest, I am coming to the conclusion that it's not as bad as feared, for Australia anyhow. I know of a few people effected, but the list hasn't grown recently, and those I know who were experiencing it have not had it get worse in the last 3 months. I really expected mid-year for things to accelerate down hill, but not obvious yet.

It could just be a pause before another economic leg-down, but at this point it seems there needs to be further shocks for it to get worse from here on it.

All perspectives are different I guess depending on which area you work in, and which trades you associate with.

Definitely the case here in Tassie. I have friends in construction and they are still busy with more large projects and broadacre housing developments on the way. The stimulus package for schools in particular has a massive overhang of work that will need to be done by someone, as schools will NOT let free money slip out of their hands.

I think also, because of the lower amount of manufacturing in Australia, that the slowdown caused by businesses slashing inventories has not has as marked an effect on our employment and overall economy.

Just my 2c.

 

[Temjin]

What's a recession anyway?

A temporary downturn in an otherwise healthy economy?

And what about a depression?

A systematic breakdown of the financial system requiring massive restructuring efforts and are usually accompanied by bank failures and debt deflation.

Are we in a healthy economy with just a temporary downturn where asset prices will magically go back up to its previous peak in 12 months or so? And that confidence in the market will magically go back to the pre-bust level and everybody would be buying their latest 50 inch LCD screen on their maxed out credit cards or on laybuys??

No, it wouldn't go back for a LONG LONG TIME!

It's depressing and permissitic, but I'm realistic about the future and actually quite optimistic about my own one. (that I will be better off than a lot of people and am relatively well positioned from this)

 

[Smurf1976]

Definitely the case here in Tassie. I have friends in construction and they are still busy with more large projects and broadacre housing developments on the way. The stimulus package for schools in particular has a massive overhang of work that will need to be done by someone, as schools will NOT let free money slip out of their hands.

I'll second that one and I'm also in Tas.

All of a sudden, I'm having more trouble than ever getting hold of certain trades and/or companies to do small jobs. Everyone seems flat out. Even the roads are busy with traffic, something that's never really been a problem here in the past until this year.

 

[moXJO]

Can I ask what industry you are in moXJO?

Construction, self employed tradie.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: Worst Recession for years, fact or fiction?

According to the direction of the All Ordinaries Index the recession is over.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: Worst Recession for years, fact or fiction?

According to the direction of the All Ordinaries Index the recession is over.

Not so fast, buddy...!

Looks like the Teddy Bear's picnic rally has gone back into recession.

 

[MR.]

Peoples make up your mind, what's in exactly ........ spots or stripes?

Now try to exit the train in an orderly fashion......

Guess the forward P/E of US stocks at 50 odd wouldn't have had anything to do with it!