Worst drought ever

[Seaking]

Awesome Photo Seaking.

I bet it was even more awesome taking it, what with the roar and all.

Thanx for posting it.

I didn't take the photo, we haven't been able to go south to Townsville for a week or so. Or north to Cairns for a few of those days as well.... I think we ended up with nearly a meter of rain, some places more, since last Monday week. It's just like most wet season Febuary's except since Larry last year, we seem to get a bit more media attention.. OK maybe a bit more than most wet season Febuary's...

 

[Smurf1976]

Exactly what we need more of if we're going to fix the water problems in this country. Dams.

Do it the right way and we can have better flood control, secure water supplies and a bit of hydro-electricity too.

Go another step and build small pondages below the major storages and then we've got all the pumped storage hydro peaking power we need. Combine that with tapping the massive geothermal resource that Australia has plus some solar towers in southern NSW / northern Victoria and a few wind turbines too.

Do that and not only have we fixed the water problem but we'll cut Australia's greenhouse gas emissions by almost half without the need for a single ounce of uranium.

Where? New dams for water supply everywhere but especially in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

New conventional hydro-electricity in Tasmania, Queensland, Northern Territory and to a lesser extent Victoria and NSW.

New pumped storage hydro in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.

Solar thermal towers in NSW, Queensland and Victoria.

Expansion of wind farming primarily in Tasmania.

Geothermal energy production possibly in all states but initially centred on South Australia.

A major upgrade of electricity transmission links particularly between SA and the eastern states.

Cost? A fortune but probably no more than establishing a nuclear power industry and continuing to deal with ongoing water shortages. It's a far more long term power source than nuclear, coal, oil or gas and it can't possibly melt down or cook the planet. We don't need to go to war in foreign lands to maintain access to it either.

Today we are living off the infrastructure built by previous generations. It wasn't cheap but our standard of living today absolutely depends on it. It is our duty, morally at least, to invest in the infrastructure the country needs for the future regardless of whether or not it is profitable in the short term. We've spent an outright fortune paying more for the same house - that same money would easily fund a fix to the water problem and turn the clean energy vision into reality.

 

[nioka]

I can remember an aspiring West Australian Premier being laughed at for suggesting a pipeline from the Ord to Perth to solve Perths water crisis. I dont think the cost was much more than they now intend to spend on a desalination plant. I wonder if that is being reconsidered under Howards new plans. A natural channel in the form of the Murray / Darling (and it's tribs) exists for most of the way to bring water from north to south for the eastern states. In NSW all they have to do is get it through or over the range. Not a big ask in my book. And as a bonus think of all the new dams to water ski and fish in.( One aspect of changing the environment without ruining it.)

 

[Aussiejeff]

I went for a drive down to Mitta Mitta yesterday and took a couple of sad snaps along the way.

The first is of Hume Dam at 2.5% near Bethanga Bridge - note the difference with the second pic taken 2004 which shows the dam at 98%!!

The last one shows Dartmouth Dam now at 18%... and what it looked like in 2005 at over 90%!



Drip....drip....

AJ

 

[2020hindsight]

I Hume Dam at 2.5% near Bethanga Bridge - note the difference with the second pic taken 2004 which shows the dam at 98%

great comparison AJ, and incredible such a difference in just a bit over 2 years.
I personally think that John Howard is banking on it raining before the election. And the gaff he recently made is where his thoughts are really "at" , i.e. droughts are cyclical, - with any luck (in pollies eyes) roughly the same cycle as elections - and he could answer confidently that the problem will go away. Trouble is the question was global warming and climate change... and addressing that will require more than words.

Suggest he apologise to Al Gore for a start. (just drumming up support for his film, etc).

Similarly, Sydney has had some good rain recently, including the catchment - and no doubt the State Govt will take the credit - leading into the election. (24 March). .
State Parliament will not have sat for 6 months - wont sit before March - 43 days sitting in the year - and you only have to fool some of the people most of the time ( or is it most of the people some of the time - perferably the month leading into election) - not a bad job either way.

 

[Smurf1976]

Generally speaking, everyone is counting on at least close to average inflows to storage over this coming Winter otherwise we're in BIG trouble. I'll post an update on the national situation in the next couple of days.

 

[Smurf1976]

An update on the water storage situation.

All of these figures are for available storage and exclude dead storage (water which can not be taken out of the lake due to being below the outlet level).

Dartmouth (Murray) - 21%, 746 GL down 66 GL for the week. Dartmouth power station is completely offline at this level although the water is still able to be released from storage (bypassing the power station).

Hume (Murray) - 3%, 54 GL down 17 GL for the week. Annual average flow 3849 GL.

Lake Victoria (Murray) - 53%, 257 GL down 29 GL for the week.

Lake Eucumbene (Snowy Hydro) - 11.8%, 515 GL down 9 GL for the week. The annual average inflow is about 2435 GL. Present storage is equivalent to 920 GWh of electricity.

Menindee Lakes (NSW) - 9%, 158 GL down 5 GL for the week.

Burrinjuck (NSW) - 27%, 274 GL down 5 GL for the week. Annual flow 569 GL.

Blowering (NSW, part of the Snowy scheme) - 13%, 189 GL down 17 GL. Annual average flow 1750 GL.

Eildon (Vic) - 9%, 219 GL down 22 GL for the week. Annual average flow 4268 GL.


Tasmanian figures are for energy in storage (GWh) NOT water volume since the latter is of no real relevance in Tas. That said, when full the Hydro Tasmania system holds about 15,000 GL. Long term annual net system yield is 10,200 GWh.

System Total - 26.6% - 3882 GWh down 121 GWh for the week.
Great Lake and associated storages - 19%, 1424 GWh down 21 GWh.**
Gordon - 30%, 1417 GWh down 31 GWh for the week.**
Derwent catchment - 36%, 643 GWh down 46 GWh for the week.*
King River power scheme - 69%, 160 GWh down 2 GWh for the week.*
Pieman and Henty-Anthony schemes - 72%, 147 GWh down 17 GWh.*
Mersey - Forth - 48%, 80 GWh down 4 GWh for the week.*
Lake Margaret (out of use until 2009) - 100% full and spilling. 11 GWh.

*Scheme is managed to seasonal target storage levels to balance system reliability and ability to meet peak power demands (which requires that all storages have at least some water) with the need to minimise spill during high rainfall events (due to the small storage size relative to annual inflows). Present levels are not greatly outside target. **System long-term major storages.

Urban water supplies:
Sydney - 37%, 955.5 GL (consumption about 1.5 GL / day - summer)
Melbourne - 35%, 624 GL (consumption about 1.35 GL / day - summer)
Brisbane - 22%, 387 GL
Perth** - 24%, 166 GL (consumption about 0.85 GL / day - summer)
Adelaide* - 55%, 110 GL (consumption about 0.55 GL / day - summer)
Canberra - 35%, 73 GL (consumption about 0.15 GL /day - summer)
Hobart* - About 85%, 9 GL (consumption 0.11 GL day annual average)

*Adelaide and Hobart source most of their water from the Murray and Derwent Rivers respectively with both using a very small fraction of total river flows. The level in storage within the urban area is thus not a valid indication of the overall supply situation for those cities. **Perth sources approximately 50% of its supply from ground water with desalination able to supply a further 17%.

 

[2020hindsight]

shinbone - I was thinking it might have improved this week

 

[Aussiejeff]

An update on the water storage situation.

All of these figures are for available storage and exclude dead storage (water which can not be taken out of the lake due to being below the outlet level).

Dartmouth (Murray) - 21%, 746 GL down 66 GL for the week. Dartmouth power station is completely offline at this level although the water is still able to be released from storage (bypassing the power station).

Hume (Murray) - 3%, 54 GL down 17 GL for the week. Annual average flow 3849 GL.

Hiya Smurf1976 .... where did you get those recent figures of yours from? According to the figures on the official government site at http://www.waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/sr/StorageSummary.html which they released on 12 Feb, Hume is in the 2% range (not 3%) and Dartmouth in the 18% range (not 21%) - of which neither of their figures deducts unuseable water. Your figures for those two dams seem very optimistic [given that a difference of only 1% of a 3% total in Hume's case is actually 33% of the remainder .. hehe]. Of course, in reality both dams are even lower by now.

Cheers,

Jeff

 

[Smurf1976]

Hiya Smurf1976 .... where did you get those recent figures of yours from? According to the figures on the official government site at http://www.waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/sr/StorageSummary.html which they released on 12 Feb, Hume is in the 2% range (not 3%) and Dartmouth in the 18% range (not 21%) - of which neither of their figures deducts unuseable water. Your figures for those two dams seem very optimistic [given that a difference of only 1% of a 3% total in Hume's case is actually 33% of the remainder .. hehe]. Of course, in reality both dams are even lower by now.

Cheers,

Jeff

The sources of data I'm using is:

The various capital city water authorities for their operations. All release data at least weekly except Hobart which does so on an ad-hoc basis.

Hydro Tasmania for its integrated system.

Murray Darling Basin Commission for all the rest including Dartmouth, Hume and the Snowy. I used their latest figures but they are a few days old.

As for the actual situaton, basically we're in real trouble with the Murray if we get anything less than average inflows (which requires above average rainfall given how dry the catchment is) this Winter. There will be basically nothing left in storage by Winter so all that will be available for next Summer is what falls between now and then.

For the capital cities, they generally won't run dry but a real panic will be on in the Eastern mainland capitals if there isn't reasonable rain this year. Very tough restrictions would likely be introduced to prevent completely running out of water. Adelaide and Perth should do reasonably OK with a few restrictions whilst it would take a total lack of rain (highly unlikely) to cause any real trouble in Hobart. In Adelaide's case that is assuming the Murray doesn't actually run dry - urban water supply presumably being given greater priority than other uses.

For electricity, If Tasmania gets equal to the lowest on record rainfall then that means importing lots of (mostly coal and some gas-fired) power from Victoria and burning some gas in Tas as well. The lights won't go out but there would be some financial issues since buying electricity or gas is absolutely more expensive than running water through existing hydro-electric plants at virtually zero marginal cost. If inflows were greatly below historic lows then total depletion of storage and loss of generating capacity is possible. If that happens then Tasmania would suffer a major shortfall of baseload power 24/7 even with maximum imports and gas-fired generation whilst there would be peak peak power shortages in Vic and SA next Summer.

For the Snowy, meeting power demand shouldn't be impossible but again it comes down to reducing production with more generation from coal and gas. It comes down to a financial situation where Snowy Hydro just wouldn't be earning as much whilst their costs are largely fixed. That said, if we get close to zero rainfall then the lights going out is a possibility. The real problem would come if there was a decision to release more than is needed for power production in order to keep the Murray flowing since that would rapidly deplete the remaining storage. The effect on electricity supply from the loss of Snowy generation would be mostly in NSW and Victoria although SA may be forced to supply Victoria thus spreading the shortage to SA on very hot days (though no impact in SA at other times). It would also add additional pressure to storages in Tasmania thus increasing the chance of them running dry. Realistically, we would end up with a ban on air-conditioning to maintain supplies (from coal and gas) for other uses. There would be a limited impact on Brisbane's water supply due to a need to maximise Queensland's power supply into NSW - some of which (via coal-fired plants) uses lots of Brisbane's urban water supply.

So in summary, we've come to the point where further drawing down of storages is no longer an option. If the drought continues in a moderate form then water restrictions are here to stay and we'll be using more coal and gas for electricity but there will be no outright failure of either power or water supplies. If the drought continues in a severe form during the remainder of this year then we're all in big trouble with water, power or both depending on which state you're in.

Western Australia doesn't have too much to worry about however - worst case is tough water restrictions given that two thirds of the supply is either groundwater or desalination and hydro isn't a significant power source in WA.

I have no idea as to the effects on food supply, water for mining operations etc but presumably if the Murray isn't flowing then crops won't be growing too well. As for household use, regional areas generally have far less storage than the capital cities and many are already in trouble either due to outright lack of water or very poor quality of water due to the drought.

 

[2020hindsight]

Insight - Brockie is at it again
a farmer with grapes on either side of the murray is doing fine in Vic, but going broke in NSW.
and is critical of Turnbull.
only if you're interested ( but insight is a great show)
(PS the mighty Rio Grande no longer makes it to the sea - never underestimate the ability of man to stuff things up)
ps Farmer from Qld - shame this isn't being discussed in a non-election year, then you'd know their motives were half genuine

 

[billhill]

ok, so i'm kinda sick of all the end of the doomsday market talk and while surfing the net found this.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070228093721.htm
Interestingly it seems that weather patterns may be on the wetter side in the coming year. The la nina event from my research appears to increase rainfall over australia while causing drought over the US. It also causes an increased number of hurricanes in the atlantic. One thought comes to mind with all of this, hurricanes in the gulf = higher oil$$$. Just food for though.

 

[Smurf1976]

Annother update on the water storage situation. See my previous posts for details of calculation method, how important the various storages are etc.

Irrigation storages. Those marked * release water primarily via hydro-electric power generation prior to that water being used to maintain river flows for irrigation purpose. That said, the primary purpose of the storage is irrigation and not electricity.

*Dartmouth (Murray) - 15%, 565 GL

*Hume (Murray) - 2.5%, 77GL

Lake Victoria (Murray) - 28%, 164 GL

Menindee Lakes (NSW) - 8%, 143 GL

*Burrinjuck (NSW) - 26%, 268 GL

*Blowering (NSW, part of the Snowy scheme) - 10.5%, 169 GL

*Eildon (Vic) - 5.5%, 183 GL


Hydro-electric storages. Water released from power stations is subsequently reused for various purposes. Primarily irrigation from the Snowy and in Tasmania for irrigation and urban water supply. Small amounts of water are released directly from storage (not via the power stations) for environmental flows and, in Tasmania, for white water rafting activites and duck racing (don't worry, only plastic ducks are used for racing ).

Hydro Tasmania - 24.0%, 3479 GWh (exclusing Lake Margaret presently not in use).

Snowy Hydro - (Lake Eucumbene) - 10.2%, About 800 GWh of electricity (446 GL of water).


Urban water storages:

Sydney - 37.6%, 972.5 GL (rising)

Melbourne - 34.1%, 604 GL (falling)

Brisbane - 21.6%, 380 GL (falling)

Perth - 23.5%, 161 GL (falling)

Adelaide - 54%, 108 GL (falling)

Canberra - 35.2%, 73 GL (steady)

Hobart - 79%, 9 GL (steady)

Overall, the situation remains that there is no immediate lack of water but a generally low storage situation means that there's limited ability to cope should the drought contine beyond this Autumn.

As seasonal water and electricity demand falls, the rate of storage decline should slow even if it doesn't rain at all. That is particularly the case with the Snowy where releases in April should be able to be cut to literally zero if necessary.

As for the costs, Hydro Tasmania has so far purchased $35 million worth of gas (for power generation) and another $35 million of electricity (from mainland coal-fired power stations) to slow the rate of storage decline. That is in addition to the actual fall in storage levels which is valued at about $60 million over the past 12 months (from 36% down to 24%). 2006 was the 10th consecutive year of below average system inflows.

I have no idea what it's costing the farmers etc but I'd expect it's an outright fortune. Likewise various councils outside the capital cities which supply water to residents. And that's not to mention the fires or cracking of houses.

 

[macca]

I don't think we have had this link before, some views against the cause of global warming, interesting read

http://www.channel4.com/science/microsites/G/great_global_warming_swindle/index.html

 

[Smurf1976]

An update on the water storage situation. See my previous posts for details of calculation method, how important the various storages are etc.

SUMMARY

Urban water situation continues to deteriorate in Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth but is improving in Sydney.

All capital cities except Hobart (not sure about Darwin?) continue to have relatively harsh water restrictions, may of them effectively banning the use of sprinklers. Hobart has neither water restrictions nor water meters.

Key irrigation water storages are now close to empty in the Murray River basin.

Hydro-electric storages continue to fall although so far there has been minimal loss of peak generating capacity. Both Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro have reduced output outside peak times in order to conserve remaining water (though Hydro Tas still has significant baseload production in operation).

So, in short, we're in rather a lot of trouble if the drought continues beyond the next few months and it has NOT broken on a large scale yet despite a bit of rain here and there.

On a positive note, Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro have formed a joint venture promoting the benefits of cloud seeding and making their expertise more widely available to external users. Both companies will also continue to operate their own cloud seeding operations in their respective catchment areas. For details see http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/sysfiles/media//SnowyHydro_MR_133.pdf

STORAGE LEVEL DETAILS

Irrigation storages.

*Dartmouth (Murray) - 11.2%

*Hume (Murray) - 3.7%

Lake Victoria (Murray) - 21.9%

Menindee Lakes (NSW) - 7.1%

*Burrinjuck (NSW) - 26.0%

*Blowering (NSW, part of the Snowy scheme) - 7.3%

*Eildon (Vic) - 4.6%

Those marked * also generate electricity.


Hydro-electric storages.

Hydro Tasmania - (excluding Lake Margaret presently not in use) - 20.9% (3026 GWh)

Snowy Hydro - (Lake Eucumbene) - 8.6% (around 670 GWh)


Urban water storages:

Sydney - 38.5%

Melbourne - 32.1%

Brisbane - 20.7%

Perth - 21.6%

Adelaide - 55%

Canberra - 33.8%

Hobart - Approx. 80%

 

[2020hindsight]

On a positive note, Hydro Tasmania and Snowy Hydro have formed a joint venture promoting the benefits of cloud seeding and making their expertise more widely available to external users.

they must've been listening to you smurf
While you're at it, maybe you could arrange for it to rain on my property - buga the bloke down the road (I seem to recall reading about arguments like this ? in China maybe?)

 

[Smurf1976]

they must've been listening to you smurf
While you're at it, maybe you could arrange for it to rain on my property - buga the bloke down the road (I seem to recall reading about arguments like this ? in China maybe?)

How cloud seeding works when done from the air. http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Energy/Cloud_Seeding/Frequently_Asked_Questions.htm

Snowy Hydro uses the same fundamental principles in its operation except that it does the actual seeding from the ground. This takes advantage of the topography and wind direction in the Snowy Mountains, avoiding the need for aircraft.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

All I know is that the very good rainfall the last 3 months has not changed the fact that the dams used for cooling water for power generation are still going down, and that the water that is left is very saline ie nearly unusable.

There has already been load shedding at some power stations and if the situation doesn't improve dramatically then some power stations will shut down, leading to power shortages.

NSW residents at least will be faced with 2 options, reduce power consumption ie power rationing or buy a generator.

This could possibly induce a recession, or seeing how NSW is borderline now, make it much worse.

Maybe Earth Hour could be extended to Earth Day's?

 

[bel532]

Kyoto is a sop to the bleeding hearts, both India and China will INCREASE their green house emissions in the next year by more than the TOTAL emissions in Australia.

If Oz stopped emissions completely then by the next year it would have made no difference to the world, but a hell of a difference to us.

In fact, because we actually try to limit our emissions we should manufacture more in Oz, this way the countries that do not limit emissions will have less demand, the world will be better off



Also, if we look at the history of the world we are in fact still in a mini ice age, of course we are going to get warmer, the world has had no polar icecaps for the vast majority of provable climatic history (drill cores etc)

The current federal government is the first in recorded history to actually try to do something about the stuff up the states have created with our river systems.

By law, the states control the water in their own rivers, an example is that Qld, NSW, Vic and SA have managed to sell 128% of the water flow of the Darling Murray system

All state political parties are guilty, the only way to fix it is to buy back the water rights from the farmers, this is what the federal government has quietly been doing. But in reality the states, all four of them, need to reduce everyones water rights and leave some water for those lower down.

There is a guy in Qld with dams bigger than Sydney harbour for his cotton, he has weirs across the river and pumps it all in to his dams. In the old days it would have been a range war, with dynamite and rifles, but he has the rights issued by the Qld government so NSW etc can get stuffed !!

I believe that a river which is part of a system that crosses state borders should be controlled federally so that everyone gets a fair share.

I could NEVER understand how State Governments (NSW and Queensland) allowed rice and cotton farming in this country. Let those countries in SE Asia (amd possibly in Northen Australia), which have a plentiful supply of water, engage in these commercial activities.

Look at the pathetic attempt by the current State Labour Government in Victoria (where I live) in introducing Stage 3A for the Mepropolitan Melbourne, whilst most of regional Victoria (there are some exceptions) has been on Stage 4 and 5 for some considerable time.

We owe it to our country cousins to assist them in their time of need, but they and their Governments, must assure us that every effort is being undertaken to utilise water efficiently.

Just a footnote. A friend of mine recently went to Deniliquin in rural NSW and he was appalled at the waste of water with the residents watering their gardens in the middle of the day in the heat of summer! They obviously think that, because the river runs past their doorstep, there is plenty of water available. This is, of course, a rice growing region!

 

[Julia]

I could NEVER understand how State Governments (NSW and Queensland) allowed rice and cotton farming in this country. Let those countries in SE Asia (amd possibly in Northen Australia), which have a plentiful supply of water, engage in these commercial activities.

Look at the pathetic attempt by the current State Labour Government in Victoria (where I live) in introducing Stage 3A for the Mepropolitan Melbourne, whilst most of regional Victoria (there are some exceptions) has been on Stage 4 and 5 for some considerable time.

We owe it to our country cousins to assist them in their time of need, but they and their Governments, must assure us that every effort is being undertaken to utilise water efficiently.

Just a footnote. A friend of mine recently went to Deniliquin in rural NSW and he was appalled at the waste of water with the residents watering their gardens in the middle of the day in the heat of summer! They obviously think that, because the river runs past their doorstep, there is plenty of water available. This is, of course, a rice growing region!

Great post. Completely agree. Brisbane residents are now about to start on Level Five restrictions which I think aims for less than 800 litres per day per household. No hosing and bucket garden watering on only two days per week for limited hours. Today's Courier Mail newspaper published an account of several households using as much as 37,000 litres per day(!). These households have been identified but the Water Commission is delaying taking action against them for no apparent reason. This sort of thing, along with rice and cotton farming, can only serve to increase the anger and resentment which is already rife amongst citizens on account of the present situation having occurred because of years and years of lack of planning by successive governments.