Why are financials in a downtrend?

[edho11]

Hi All,

What are the fundamental problems that our financial sector is having now that is pushing them sideways to downwards?

Are they just simply following the financial sectors of the US and Europe?

 

[Trembling Hand]

They don't look to be in a down trend to me. They have gone nowhere for 6 months.

But what are the "fundamental" reasons why they should be going up?

 

[skyQuake]

Hi All,

What are the fundamental problems that our financial sector is having now that is pushing them sideways to downwards?

Are they just simply following the financial sectors of the US and Europe?

Maybe u should ask those who have been trying to short banks!

 

[explod]

They don't look to be in a down trend to me. They have gone nowhere for 6 months.

But what are the "fundamental" reasons why they should be going up?

Looks like a down trend to me since october 09. But as you know T/H that's just me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Looks like a down trend to me since october 09. But as you know T/H that's just me.

Thats why you are a crap trader. You always look for what you want to see. Since mid Sep they have been in the same price area as they are today 8 times.

 

[nunthewiser]

Maybe u should ask those who have been trying to short banks!

SOME have been doing ok within the swings and the chop playing the shorting game also ............ But hey cant get them ALL right like others here i spose.

 

[nunthewiser]

Looks like a down trend to me since october 09. But as you know T/H that's just me.

Thats why you are a crap trader. You always look for what you want to see. Since mid Sep they have been in the same price area as they are today 8 times.

But thats exactly what you have just done. since Oct YES they have been in a downtrend. Since September YES its a sideways channel ... Explod,s post is valid as no denying its been a downward slope since oct 09.

.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Explod,s post is valid as no denying its been a downward slope since oct/nov 09.

Yes there is. Taking the same logic they are in an up trend since late Dec as they are now higher.

Or take another point? A month ago? Up trend. Or why not a year ago? Up trend. But When you look at that chart in relation to the original question they are neither trending up or down, IMNSHO, since bouncing back hard post meltdown. Not in any meaningful way. Just flopping around like the rest of the market. A trend in the true sense is more than these little wiggles up and down.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes there is. Taking the same logic they are in an up trend since late Dec as they are now higher.

Or take another point? A month ago? Up trend. Or why not a year ago? Up trend. But When you look at that chart in relation to the original question they are neither trending up or down, IMNSHO, since bouncing back hard post meltdown. Not in any meaningful way. Just flopping around like the rest of the market. A trend in the true sense is more than these little wiggles up and down.

Yep . ....... it can be anything one wants it to be

Some look for intraday trends , some look for a yearlys......others will take anything in between ..

 

[explod]

Could be a long flag formation with a breakout one way or the other to happen soon. Fundamentally with the crapola coming out of the press could be a big breakout to the downside.

The chart will tell after the event, we just follow.

 

[aaronphetamine]

If you ask me I'd say that a few of the reasons that the Financials havent moved for the past six months is becuase

1. Despite the domestic economy looking OK, some foreign economies are not OK and this leads to pessimism globally.
2. Our banks are fully priced in for the amount of profit and shareholder return that they are providing.
3. Investors are worred that the excellent profits the banks have historically been making may be under jeapourdy from increasing at the same levels previously becuase of the threat of increased regulation in the financial industry.
4. They had a massive run from march 2009 to october 2009.

I still believe that in time the financials and in particular, the banking stocks will rise.

I am a holder of ANZ, WBC and GMG shares in the financial sector.

 

[Soft Dough]

They are under pressure for a number of reasons.

1. They never fell as much as the rest of the market, so it is an illusion that the rest of the market is outperforming them.

2. Australians are overgeared as it is, so increasing profits are most likely going to come from increased margins, decreased expenses ( unlikely ) or from new products . ie there is not much scope for increased lending to the overgeared.

3. Interest rates are rising and people are more wary of taking out new loans.

4. It is an election year and increasing margins in the short term will probably result in chest beating for political gain - not a good pr move.

5. There is no more artificial stimulus to the extent there was.

So even though I own a lot of banking stocks, I am holding, not adding.

 

[nunthewiser]

Time for a bedtime story

Understanding the Nature of the Global Economic Crisis



The people have been lulled into a false sense of safety under the ruse of a perceived “economic recovery.” Unfortunately, what the majority of people think does not make it so, especially when the people making the key decisions think and act to the contrary. The sovereign debt crises that have been unfolding in the past couple years and more recently in Greece, are canaries in the coal mine for the rest of Western “civilization.” The crisis threatens to spread to Spain, Portugal and Ireland; like dominoes, one country after another will collapse into a debt and currency crisis, all the way to America.



In October 2008, the mainstream media and politicians of the Western world were warning of an impending depression if actions were not taken to quickly prevent this. The problem was that this crisis had been a long-time coming, and what’s worse, is that the actions governments took did not address any of the core, systemic issues and problems with the global economy; they merely set out to save the banking industry from collapse. To do this, governments around the world implemented massive “stimulus” and “bailout” packages, plunging their countries deeper into debt to save the banks from themselves, while charging it to people of the world.



Then an uproar of stock market speculation followed, as money was pumped into the stocks, but not the real economy. This recovery has been nothing but a complete and utter illusion, and within the next two years, the illusion will likely come to a complete collapse.



The governments gave the banks a blank check, charged it to the public, and now it’s time to pay; through drastic tax increases, social spending cuts, privatization of state industries and services, dismantling of any protective tariffs and trade regulations, and raising interest rates. The effect that this will have is to rapidly accelerate, both in the speed and volume, the unemployment rate, globally. The stock market would crash to record lows, where governments would be forced to freeze them altogether.



When the crisis is over, the middle classes of the western world will have been liquidated of their economic, political and social status. The global economy will have gone through the greatest consolidation of industry and banking in world history leading to a system in which only a few corporations and banks control the global economy and its resources; governments will have lost that right. The people of the western world will be treated by the financial oligarchs as they have treated the ‘global South’ and in particular, Africa; they will remove our social structures and foundations so that we become entirely subservient to their dominance over the economic and political structures of our society.



This is where we stand today, and is the road on which we travel.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17736


The whole page is worth a read if you have the time

 

[lukeaye]

Could be a long flag formation with a breakout one way or the other to happen soon. Fundamentally with the crapola coming out of the press could be a big breakout to the downside.

The chart will tell after the event, we just follow.

The chart may tell you before the event if you listen to it correctly.

I find it very hard to call that a downtrend in the context of the question. There is strength at support and resistance, so failures are nor up or down, there is no primary up or down trend?

What would you call a sideways trend then?

 

[brty]

Thanks Nun,

A good bit of fiction before bed.

brty