Who is ready for a rally?

[Naked shorts]

imo chance of a big rally tomorrow = no

Im looking at monday for a possible rally, however i wont be placing any long, medium term trades

 

[Muschu]

This has got 3 possibly 4 days in it.

This actually turned out to be pretty accurate in that it certainly was a very brief rally.
Is there any common understanding here as to what constitutes a rally? Does 1-2-3 days suffice? Have we had a "real" rally?
What anticipation is there of a further [or actual] rally? When might it occur? How sustained might it be? To what extent will the all ords go up if it is anticipated to go up at all?
I have no idea as to the answers to these questions and maybe they are unreasonable questions to even ask.
However I thought some of the experienced chartists out there might like to share their opinions. Some I have read recently have been very helpful.
With thanks
Rick

 

[tech/a]

Personally Id call it volatility.
Hardly a blimp on the radar,you could call it Noise in the big picture.
Nothing really has changed.
Infact wave counts havent altered from the October Low meaning they are still within the wave made then.
There is a chart above which shows that when the wave 4 of 5 waves within the Weekly chart of the ORDS takes place I expect it to move toward 5000.

However at the moment there is no real sign that the wave 3 is complete.
If the low holds(3939) and we get trading above 4403 then this maybe possible (The scenario above).
A break below the low of 3939 will see some alteration to the analysis.
Next stop 3400 ish which is around 50% retracement of the main trend.
This was seen (50%) in 1929 and 1987 so highly probable.

 

[tech/a]

Looks like the low will hold.
This now brings the longer term rally into a real possibility.
Analysis will be proven incorrect if the low is taken out.(At any time in the near future).

 

[Speewha]

Hello


Oh well the yoyo market could be moving up the string today, extreme caution needed no significant overnight holds for me

Regards

 

[Aussiejeff]

Hello


Oh well the yoyo market could be moving up the string today, extreme caution needed no significant overnight holds for me

Regards

Same-o.

Metinks this is perfect timing again for a Yank-induced ASX "sucker-rally" heading into the weekend. Best of luck to those who intend to buy and hold! No Ozzie shorts makes it a dodgy wheeze.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Sebastian Loeb? Marcus Gronholm? Neal Bates? Colin McCrae?

I reckon we're in for a resources led -4% blitz based on metal prices going -6% and similar. A few astute commentators in Australia think we have further to fall because of the R word in the US.

For us to recover and get people out of their savings accounts we need another 0.5-1% RATE CUT.

Or you could buy bullion??? what else is left to do except sit on good fundamental stocks and wait for the ski jump to turn up at the end of the slide!

 

[Aussiejeff]

Sebastian Loeb? Marcus Gronholm? Neal Bates? Colin McCrae?

I reckon we're in for a resources led -4% blitz based on metal prices going -6% and similar. A few astute commentators in Australia think we have further to fall because of the R word in the US.

For us to recover and get people out of their savings accounts we need another 0.5-1% RATE CUT.

Or you could buy bullion??? what else is left to do except sit on good fundamental stocks and wait for the ski jump to turn up at the end of the slide!

NOOO! I DON'T WANT TO LEAVE THE RELATIVE SAFETY OF MY BELOVED SAVINGS ACCOUNT!!! Bugger more interest rate cuts. If they go down another 1-2% I may as well shove me dwindling capital under the mattress.

See.

There are two sides to this grubby coin.

 

[Aussiest]

If you notice after every rally, the All Ords is still travelling steadily downwards. Sure, a small rally here and there, but a recovery? I don't think so. I think there will be another leg down, and then we'll have seen the bottom.

 

[Sunder]

If you notice after every rally, the All Ords is still travelling steadily downwards. Sure, a small rally here and there, but a recovery? I don't think so. I think there will be another leg down, and then we'll have seen the bottom.

I had to change underpants this morning, when I saw the futures up 206 points. I have a fairly large short open. I'm expecting a leg down towards the mid 3000s, but only 70% confident of it. But I remembered this past behavior, and said to myself, no matter how much it opens up, don't close out the short before the late afternoon, because it probably will pull back.

I think this indicates that people are grasping at good news, but the weight of downside is not allowing these rallies to succeed into full blown recoveries.

 

[chops_a_must]

I'm starting to feel mighty bullish.

 

[Snakey]

I'm starting to feel mighty bullish.

yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net.
Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY

:bananasmi:guitar::band:

:bier:

 

[Sean K]

yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net.

Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY

:bier:

Crikey snakey! Have fun!

Hopefully, the market doesn't break down through the previous bottom and make it's way to the 3400 ish mark while you're looking after your mental health in Egypt.

Post photos!

 

[Aussiejeff]

yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net.
Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY

:band:

:bier:

Wow! The Bears are GONE! Snakey scared 'em off!

Hooray for Snakey! Snakey for PM!!!

Snakey for World Leader!!!!


*pfft* oh ..... it was just a dream.......

 

[Logique]

Hi Snakey. Its refreshing to see some positivity and optimism on this board.

Good to see that the US market closed up over the week. Warren Buffett is saying he is moving his personal portfolio back into US stocks. Although he thinks there is more to do yet, in turning the US economy around, he all the same believes that US equities are now attractively priced.

The rescue packages around the world just need some time to kick in and gradually restore liquidity and confidence.

It's been a slow news cycle in October, so the media frenzy has repeated doom and gloom, hour after hour, day after day. There just has to be a lot of fear in a lot of share prices. I think Buffet realizes this.

 

[Indie]

Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.

Long or short, this volatility is not for the feint hearted - a wrong bet is very easy here...

 

[skyQuake]

Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.

Think the ban's still in place in Australia. Even if its not, hold your horses mate, there's gonna be one huge covering rally on monday

 

[Muschu]

......Even if its not, hold your horses mate, there's gonna be one huge covering rally on monday

Can I show my ignorance and ask what a "huge covering rally" will do to the all ords?

 

[MRC & Co]

Can I show my ignorance and ask what a "huge covering rally" will do to the all ords?

Bounce.

People buying to 'cover' their shorts, so they then move back to a neutral market position.