Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[swingstar]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hmm, Frank Watkins (whoever he is??) or Warren Buffet - tough one. Let me think about it.

I thought you didn't swim with the tide. How many books has Buffet sold compared to Watkins I wonder?

(I haven't read Watkins BTW)

Maybe check out some of the books in here.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

use it as an example again.

In the last 2 years CMI has moved from $2.30 to $1.30 and has been on "cheap" PER all the way down. It has a history of wildly fluctuating earnings and sells product into a highly competitive cyclical industry. If Buffett were dead he would turn in his grave at the suggestion of him investing long term in such a dog.

True, Buffet would never buy CMI. He specialises not diversifies.

Graham would though, I have no doubt whatsoever.

Graham "speculated" with a wide variety, sometimes up to 200 or 300, small cap stocks that were selling for less than their net-tangible assets.

And CMI pays 12% dividends and has gone up 30% in the past month.

It is like you dabbling in a resource company without a source.

In no way would I put much money into CMI - it was 2% of my holdings. It was me speculating.

I put money into large dominant world leaders like Westfield and Fosters and BHP. Not f'n CMI - gimme a break. It was a punt.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I thought you didn't swim with the tide. How many books has Buffet sold compared to Watkins I wonder?

I don't know of any Buffet has written?

He's got nothing particualrly new to write - he recommend Graham simple as that.

Buffet learnt from Graham, Graham is the master, Buffet is the student that surpassed him financially.

Buffet breaks rules that Graham advocates like diversification and only buying at a good discount. But Graham preaches to mere mortals, Buffet is no mere mortal.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I'm going to send every beginner trader I know to this thread and read your wisdom (whilst looking into a mirror)

Please...

 

[swingstar]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I don't know of any Buffet has written?

He's got nothing particualrly new to write - he recommend Graham simple as that.

Buffet learnt from Graham, Graham is the master, Buffet is the student that surpassed him financially.

Buffet breaks rules that Graham advocates like diversification and only buying at a good discount. But Graham preaches to mere mortals, Buffet is no mere mortal.

Nevertheless, maybe oneday Watkins, Tharp, Douglas, etc etc will be the Grahams of today.

 

[Nick Radge]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Simple, the more you trade the less you make

Unfortunately that is up there with other market misconceptions.

I am happy to debate but I, and no doubt others, would like a sensible answer. There are 3 cornerstone attributes to profitability and I do say that every trader/investor on the planet does pocess them. I'll give you two, you give the the third, then we'll discuss.

1. Win %
2. Win / Loss ratio
3. ?

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

For Gods sake everyone trade Fundamentally worship Buffettology,Buy and hold forever become fabulously rich, jump on a kite and meet me in London for a beer!!!

Why the hell are you all bothering with this absolute rubbish.
If this is fundamental analysis then there are a heap of academics who should have studied Buffettology to get their positions as reseach analysts for investment banks world wide!

What absolutely Nieve ,ill informed, pompous, opinionated, narrowminded, long winded, self serving, meaningless, hot air.

Your indulging a TROLL

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Nevertheless, maybe oneday Watkins, Tharp, Douglas, etc etc will be the Grahams of today.

It is like bodybuilding or gymnastics or mountain climbing ( I know you guys love my analogies so I'll continue)

In the 1970's Arnold Schwarzenegger achieved the perfect reuslts in bodybuilding, and Nadia Comenechi achieved them in gymnastics. In the 1950's Sir Edmund Hillary climbed Everest.

Those 3 sports have never been as popular (media wise at least) because the peak has been reached. People can reach that peak themselves but they can not surpass it.

No-one can surpass Arnold, Nadia or Edmund.

Buffet's hit the peak. He learnt from Graham - there is no way to beat them.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Your indulging a TROLL

So are you obviously.

 

[Bobby]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

For Gods sake everyone trade Fundamentally worship Buffettology,Buy and hold forever become fabulously rich, jump on a kite and meet me in London for a beer!!!

Why the hell are you all bothering with this absolute rubbish.
If this is fundamental analysis then there are a heap of academics who should have studied Buffettology to get their positions as reseach analysts for investment banks world wide!

What absolutely Nieve ,ill informed, pompous, opinionated, narrowminded, long winded, self serving, meaningless, hot air.

Your indulging a TROLL

Yep ! but what Fun its being

Bob.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

It is like bodybuilding or gymnastics or mountain climbing ( I know you guys love my analogies so I'll continue)

In the 1970's Arnold Schwarzenegger achieved the perfect reuslts in bodybuilding, and Nadia Comenechi achieved them in gymnastics. In the 1950's Sir Edmund Hillary climbed Everest.

Those 3 sports have never been as popular (media wise at least) because the peak has been reached. People can reach that peak themselves but they can not surpass it.

No-one can surpass Arnold, Nadia or Edmund.

Buffet's hit the peak. He learnt from Graham - there is no way to beat them.

Why not just invest in BRKA then?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=brka

 

[swingstar]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

It is like bodybuilding or gymnastics or mountain climbing ( I know you guys love my analogies so I'll continue)

In the 1970's Arnold Schwarzenegger achieved the perfect reuslts in bodybuilding, and Nadia Comenechi achieved them in gymnastics. In the 1950's Sir Edmund Hillary climbed Everest.

Those 3 sports have never been as popular (media wise at least) because the peak has been reached. People can reach that peak themselves but they can not surpass it.

No-one can surpass Arnold, Nadia or Edmund.

Climbing Mt Everest for the first time, I agree, can only be achieved once. But Arnold's achievements have been surpassed twice, and he only achieved the 'peak' what, thirty years ago?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Olympia#Winners

Buffet's hit the peak. He learnt from Graham - there is no way to beat them.

Unbelievably shocking attitude. Who was at the 'peak' before Buffet, eh?

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yep, BRKA looks more like business in the business of doing business, than a business that invests.

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. and its subsidiaries primarily engage in the insurance and reinsurance of property and casualty risks business. It provides automobile, multi line, and credit and income protection insurance; excess-of-loss reinsurance and quota-share coverage; and reinsurance for life, accident, and health risks. The company also manufactures and distributes clothing, including uniforms for police, fire, postal, and military markets; and footwear, as well as manufactures and distributes clay bricks, concrete blocks, and cut limestone; building products of other manufacturers, including glass block and other masonry products; and sells ceramic floor, and marble and granite stones. In addition, Berkshire Hathaway produces general purpose coatings; fiber glass wool insulation products and pipe and duct insulation products; roofing systems and components; and non woven mats, fabrics, and fibers. Further, it engages in the provision of manufactured homes, commercial real estate and consumer receivable financing, and annuity contracts; and ownership and management of manufactured housing communities, as well as provision of training to operators of aircraft and ships. Additionally, the company provides rental furniture and accessories; leases transportation equipment; offers wholesale distribution and logistics services; and retails household appliances, electronics, computers, and other home furnishings. Further, it provides tufted and woven carpets, and laminated flooring; home cleaning systems; confectionery products; and wood and metal moulding, matboard, foamboard, glass, equipment, and other framing supplies, as well as publishes news editions and sells kitchen tools. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. acquired Business Wire in March 2006.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Why not just invest in BRKA then?

If only I had Wayne, if only.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yep, BRKA looks more like business in the business of doing business, than a business that invests.

It owns businesses - 100% share holding.

If I could buy WDC and FGL outright myself - I would, the next best thing is to buy shares in them. Part ownership is all I can afford.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

It owns businesses - 100% share holding.

If I could buy WDC and FGL outright myself - I would, the next best thing is to buy shares in them. Part ownership is all I can afford.

But then you would have to run them... and therein lies the difference between a businessman and an investor... Buffet and you

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

But then you would have to run them... and therein lies the difference between a businessman and an investor... Buffet and you

Nope.

Buffet does not run Coke, Gilette, Washington Post or Tesco.

He's an investor not a manager.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

If TA gives you greater returns longterm how the hell did Warren Buffet make US$60,000,000,000 doing fundamental investing, buying undervalued companies on a downtrend and holding forever?

.

Lets expose this little piece of BS

If WB was an investor and achieved the quoted 24% return p/a, he would have had to have started with > $1.5 million in 1957... ANDS THATS 1957 DOLLARS. A whopping amount back then.

Simple arithmetic would show up the fallacy here.

Buffet is a businessman, not an investor.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Lets expose this little piece of BS

If WB was an investor and achieved the quoted 24% return p/a, he would have had to have started with > $1.5 million in 1957... ANDS THATS 1957 DOLLARS. A whopping amount back then.

Simple arithmetic would show up the fallacy here.

Buffet is a businessman, not an investor

So Buffet has never invested?

Oh man I must have my facts wrong, I could have sworn he'd bought some shares at some stage.

Buffet is an investor first and foremost and a hands off businessman secondly.

This is from Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

Management style
Buffett views himself as a capital allocator above anything else. His primary responsibility is to allocate capital to businesses with good economics and keep their existing management to lead the company.

When Buffett acquires a controlling interest in a business, he makes clear to the owner that:

he will not interfere with the running of the company;
he will make the hiring and compensation decision of the top executive; and
capital allocated to the business will have a price tag (a hurdle rate) attached; this process is to motivate owners to send excess capital that does not return more than its cost to Berkshire headquarters rather than investing it at low returns. [citation needed] This cash is then free to be invested in opportunities that offer higher returns.
Buffett's hands-off approach has held strong appeal and created room for his managers to perform as owners and ultimate decision makers of their businesses. This acquisition strategy enabled Buffett to buy companies at fair prices because the sellers wanted room to operate independently after selling.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

This is for Julia

Investment approach
Buffett's philosophy on business investing is a modification of the value investing approach of his mentor Benjamin Graham. Graham bought companies because they were cheap compared to their intrinsic value. He was of the belief that as long as the market undervalued them relative to their intrinsic value he was making a solid investment. He reasoned that the market will eventually realize it has undervalued the company and will correct its course regardless of what type of business the company was in. In addition he believes that the business has to have solid economics behind it.

And this is for Cuttlefish..

Buffett's next concern would be when to buy. He does not hurry to invest in a business if the value is not discernible. He will wait for market correction or downturn to buy solid businesses at reasonable prices, as he views downturns in the stock market as buying opportunities. He is conservative when greed and speculation is rampant in the market and he is greedy and aggressive when others are fearing for their capital.