Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[professor_frink]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I read Guppy's book, well most of it, and Leon someone from Tasmania's book - about a third of that. I noted both said most (90% even) traders lose money. I also laughed when they said "buy and hope" is the riskiest way to invest. Leon in particular had no understanding of Graham or Buffet's mentality at all.

I highly doubt that they do either. I'd also doubt that they are signalling out the Graham/buffett crowd with that comment.

I do not like the fact that traders would buy into a company because others like it currently and are buying it themselves so the price is rising. But if for some reason it dips, sell quick in case it freefalls and move onto the next hot item.

That just is not me.

If you don't think it's for you, then it would be best to stay away from it, as you can go backwards pretty quickly trading if you aren't good at it.

When pink shirts were in fashion I never bought one, if flares come into fashion and everyone wears them I wont. I am not a follower of the crowd. I'll go against them if anything.

This I agree with. Men shouldn't wear pink shirts. ever.

Most people invest in things when they are going up and sell when they are going down. I don't.

What, like investing in mining companies in the 2nd half of 2003 when they were going up? It's not always a bad idea! Sometimes yes, but not always. So you wouldn't have bought into bhp at the end of 2003 because it ran up nearly 50% from $8 to $12?

Show me a share in a good company that has gone down quite alot and I'd be keen to buy into it, show me a share that has rocketed up recently and I wont touch it.

You probably should think about how some of your statements come across. You say you won't buy a share that has had a run up, yet you were topping up on RIO recently when it's share price has more than doubled in recent times

I open to any suggestions on trading books or investing books - I am willing to learn. I am yet to see anything better than Graham's ideas though - maybe I will, I hope I will, that would be a life changing moment for sure.

Try Mark Douglas- Trading in the zone.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I suppose I’ll have to reluctantly weigh in on this new Gann/Elliott wave debate since it’s getting into my esoteric field of technical analysis. I’m in a really interesting position as wavepicker correctly states, since I use an integrated Gann-Elliott approach, I think there is merit in both approaches, and have found them quite compatible. In fact I’d argue that vibration theory and wave theory are in fact two sides of a coin – they’re both looking at different facets of the same market movement.

wavepicker has cited Bill McLaren as the Gann trader of note, and it is primarily his works that form the core of my approach. The problem with esoteric knowledge is that if you put 50 people in a room, you will get as many if not more perspectives, all subjective in nature, and many disputes will occur over interpretation of original documents.

Unfortunately since there are so many conflicting interpretations of “Gann” concepts, this can really muddy the water. I actually feel embarrassed when so called “Gann” fanatics rave on with an almost religious ferocity, especially when it becomes arrogant in tone, or condescending. I must say that I cringed when I read some of Yogi’s comments that bordered on abusive and dismissive. I do not subscribe to the idea that anyone has a monopoly on truth, and that all people should be extended common courtesy. Let’s stick to the idea, and not play the person.

I subscribe to a lot of the concepts that Gann pioneered, but I’m not a Gann purist or a fanatic. I really don’t care how successful or not an originator like Elliott or Gann were – I’m essentially interested in putting together an effective approach to trading and investing to make profits consistently. The applicability of the concept is of core importance to me, all the other “fluff” is really irrelevant from a perspective of wether an individual adopting a body of knowledge can use a concept effectively or not.

I think Mark Douglas got it right when he coined the axioms “anything can happen” and “every moment in the market is unique”. Being a great analyst alone is not sufficient to succeed. Psychology, strategy and having a robust system are vital in addition to analysis. There are many valid ways to succeed, and we see many in evidence here on this site.

I view trading and investing as an individual pursuit, and all any of us can do is to make our best shot judgement of how to approach the market by developing methods to make money. It seems to me that consistency is a key element in the mix (I tend to concur with tech/a here – I think his concept of approaching financial markets as a business is critical, and salute his drive to attain consistent results). Everyone must find what works for them, and that’s ok by me. I try to keep an open mind, and actively research new ideas as they are formulated, hence my interest with some comments on this site.

Let’s look at what’s happening on this thread in regards to technical analysis approaches –we have tech/a, a primarily mechanical trader who seems to have moved to embracing EW having it out with Yogi, an “astrological” Gann practitioner, then add wavepicker an EW practitioner with some incorporated concepts from a non astrological Gann trader (Bill McLaren – whom I also draw from).

Interestingly I stand in the intuitive (maybe “discretionary” depending on the definition) camp, subscribe to Prechter and Frost’s interpretation of Elliott Wave, subscribe to a pattern/time school of Gann that does NOT embrace the astrological approach.

I do not think Gann or Elliott were gods (although I respect what they were able to develop in the pre computer age). Just because one or other wrote something does not make it right or beyond dispute or revision. Any body of knowledge that is set in concrete and is not able to be modified and adapted eventually becomes redundant in my view. Once a body of knowledge becomes static like a rigid religious doctrine (like the flat earth orthodoxy perpetuated by various religions despite the works of people like Galileo), then it’s time to move on.

So what does this all mean? Essentially I think everyone is on a personal journey of discovery, and that we should respect that each person is going to have a unique perspective.

Now, what concerns me is when personal abuse takes the place of respectful argument, and I am quite surprised by the uncharacteristic outburst. I do hope this abates since there is actually some very interesting ideas being put forward here that are in my opinion worth examining.

As a person who has embraced Gann approaches, I do hope that people reading some of the comments from one particular “school” of Gann do not taint those who are at the polar opposite end of the “Gann spectrum” with the same brush. Astrological Gann practitioners are radically different from the school I subscribe to. Also, McLaren based Gann practitioners are unique in the field of Gann – radically different from Cameron Mitchell, Ferrera, Brad Cohen, Michael S Jenkins, Jerome Baumring, David Burton, Constance Brown, and a host of other “Gann” schools.

In my view, anyone claiming they can project time and price accurately every time is highly suspect. Sure, good forecasts can be made, but because the market is so complex, and forecasts are made with limited and imperfect knowledge, all anyone can do is to make their best shot assessment of probabilities. In my view, there are no certainties in the market, and I defy anyone to successfully argue to the contrary.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

What does Graham do that I don't and vice versa??

I wont sell easily - he would apparently, and I will pay slightly too much for somethign that is excellent, he wouldn't. what else?

They're pretty key differences - overall when it comes to buying and selling decisions there's only a few parameters to tweak and they make all the difference. You seem to advocate buying on dips (recent RIO and BHP purchases) - don't recall that being part of Graham methodology. Diversification to manage risk - thats pretty generic, again don't recall it being a key pillar of Graham or Buffet strategies. Don't sell for 30 years - not Graham - maybe Buffet. No metrics for entry or exit - pretty sure Graham had metrics.

I've got nothing against developing your own methodology, and nothing against fundamental investing either, but I think your methodology is fairly different to a strict Graham approach.

 

[ducati916]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Magdoran

In my view, there are no certainties in the market, and I defy anyone to successfully argue to the contrary.

J.P.Morgan Sr.

*Prices will Fluctuate*

jog on
d998

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Show me a share in a good company that has gone down quite alot and I'd be keen to buy into it,

Saw this couldn`t help.

What about VLL Realist? Would you buy it? It has gone down.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I’m essentially interested in putting together an effective approach to trading and investing to make profits consistently. The applicability of the concept is of core importance to me, all the other “fluff” is really irrelevant from a perspective of wether an individual adopting a body of knowledge can use a concept effectively or not.

I think Mark Douglas got it right when he coined the axioms “anything can happen” and “every moment in the market is unique”. Being a great analyst alone is not sufficient to succeed. Psychology, strategy and having a robust system are vital in addition to analysis. There are many valid ways to succeed, and we see many in evidence here on this site.

Magdoran

That was very well said Magdoran- at the end of the day whether it's Gann, Elliott or any other for of TA, the idea is to put together a system that works for you.

This is not a contest of who can pick the most winners or to say that "Gannsters" always cream Ellioticians when it comes to finding out what the market may do. Like you, I use an integrated Gann-Elliott-and many other forms of TA approach. You do what works for you and what you are comfortable with. Although I, as many others find it very difficult to relate to the Astrological hoohah for predicting world events!!

Cheers

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You probably should think about how some of your statements come across. You say you won't buy a share that has had a run up, yet you were topping up on RIO recently when it's share price has more than doubled in recent times

I said I wouldn't buy a share because it has run up, not I wont buy a share that has had a run up. There is a subtle difference.

Yes I bought RIO and BHP recently at about $26 and $73.

Great companies at a reasonable price I thought.

Yes they've doubled/tripled in the past few years - I bought them after BHP went down 21% in about 2 weeks though. I bought when most were selling.

I wish I had bought them 3 years ago of course. I did buy at a dip though and have made money from it

It is no major achievement but I got in at an okay price, I'm happy.

I regard these 2 as excellent so am prepared to pay slightly too much for them.

I am waiting for others to dip like MBL, BIL and WOW to dip so I can get in on that as well. That may take years though. Maybe some ACCC threats about monopolies will help WOW go down?

What about VLL Realist? Would you buy it? It has gone down.

I said show me a share in a good company thats gone down.

VLL is over $60M in debt. It aint a good company. If it had no debt then yeah I'd maybe buy it.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yogi’s quote: you should read the original forecast:


Now, Yogi, while I respect that you are a leading practitioner in the field of astrological Gann traders, I have to take issue with your rather selective, and I believe potentially misleading quoting of your forecasts.

The first quote is what you wanted people to see as a call of the high in the XJO, but when one reads the full unedited version below, the full nature of your forecast becomes apparent.

You seem to claim the ability to forecast key dates in advance, but the example you put up (while impressive) was a piece of price range projection just like Nick Rage did using a Fibonacci approach. Sure you projected resistance in price, as did many others (including McLaren), but you did not as you claimed name the 10th of May as the high date in advance, or even on the day.

Let’s compare your quote on this thread which was referenced to the “Trading the SPI” thread which materially differ.

Originally Posted by yogi-in-oz: Post 429 Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

First Quote with key phrases edited out:

Then on the day of the high 10 May 2006, XJO made it
to 5404, before closing below our 5386 target, at 5352.

..... and in the SPI thread, on ASF:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/fo...44323#post44323

10th-May-2006, 01:32 PM Re: Trading the SPI

Hi folks,

As targetted, in our 23032006 and 07042006 posts:

XJO ... today, we reached out 5386 target
from 13 March 2003 lows.

Actual high today has been 5406, but it very
quickly pulled back to trade around our 5386
target ..... so, we have seen this market
DOUBLE in value in 1155 days.

=====

~~~~~~~~~~~~


Today 10052006, is also exactly 180 days ahead
of our target low, on 07 November 2006 ... ???

Let's see, how this lot unfolds.


. ..... more about the similarities,between 1987 and 2006, later.

end quote

Originally Posted by yogi-in-oz: Post 1474 Re: Trading the SPI

Actual Quote:

Hi folks,

As targetted, in our 07042006 post:

XJO ... today, we reached out 5386 target
from 13 March 2003 lows, at 2693.

Actual high today has been 5406, but it very
quickly pulled back to trade around our 5386
target ..... so, we have seen this market
DOUBLE in value in 1155 days.

=====

Expecting a strong DOW on both Thursday and
Friday this week, however XJO may not perform
as well, as we look for XJO to trade flat-to-down (?),
then rally again around 18052006.

Next XJO high will likely be about 24-25052006
and then, 26-29052006 will likely see our first taste
of a retreat from the highs(???), ahead of our next
critical day for world events ..... 07-08 June 2006 (???)

-----

Today 10052006, is also exactly 180 days ahead
of our target low, on 07 November 2006 ... ???

Let's see, how this lot unfolds.

happy trading

yogi

P.S. ..... more about the similarities,between 1987 and 2006, later.

Your post on this thread gave the impression that you’d called the high that day. You didn’t. You certainly identified that a key target in price was attained, good call. But I can’t condone the “convenient omission” of the comments which followed which actually gave the projection in that post which was as follows:

Originally Posted by yogi-in-oz: Post 1474 Re: Trading the SPI

Next XJO high will likely be about 24-25052006
and then, 26-29052006 will likely see our first taste
of a retreat from the highs(???), ahead of our next
critical day for world events ..... 07-08 June 2006 (???)

You did not specifically state the next high as a lower high, and I would have thought that the reference to a "first taste of a retreat from the highs" indicated you expected the may 10th high to be exceeded at the time. Sure, you recognised this was a critical level, but I would argue that you didn’t have the precision you seem to be suggesting in your posts.

Also, I have an issue with anyone suggesting top or bottom picking strategies for newbies. Surely the task at hand is not to try to pick tops and bottoms of markets, but as McLaren suggests, to locate a trend, and stick with it until it is at risk.

While I respect the use of Gann concepts for forecasting, to claim that you can forecast exact highs and lows both in time and price consistently would need to be demonstrated. I accept that you can project probable areas of resistance and support in time and price, and that as the market moves that these forecasts will need to be modified.

Also, while I am certainly a user of Gann methods, and subscribe to the use of time forecasting and salute some of your approaches, I do have some reservations with some of your claims when they don’t bear out in fact. What I’d like to see is some of your methods outlined in simple language. While I would love to research your works to evaluate them, frankly the high price tags are a disincentive.

Why don’t you as an act of good faith outline some of your methods, and give some clues as to what the “secrets” are in “Tunnel Thru the Air”? - Now that would be interesting.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

What, like investing in mining companies in the 2nd half of 2003 when they were going up? It's not always a bad idea! Sometimes yes, but not always. So you wouldn't have bought into bhp at the end of 2003 because it ran up nearly 50% from $8 to $12?

good question.

Okay, yes I wish I had bought BHP at $8.

Do you wish you had bought BHP when it went down to $5 in 1999 and was very much out of favour?? Or when it dipped to $16 last year?

Or finally when it dipped to $25.40 last month?

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

They're pretty key differences - overall when it comes to buying and selling decisions there's only a few parameters to tweak and they make all the difference. You seem to advocate buying on dips (recent RIO and BHP purchases) - don't recall that being part of Graham methodology. Diversification to manage risk - thats pretty generic, again don't recall it being a key pillar of Graham or Buffet strategies. Don't sell for 30 years - not Graham - maybe Buffet. No metrics for entry or exit - pretty sure Graham had metrics.

I've got nothing against developing your own methodology, and nothing against fundamental investing either, but I think your methodology is fairly different to a strict Graham approach.

Yeah I advocate buying on dips. I think Graham does as well to some extent.

What do you mean I have no metrics??

A low PER (15 is average)

A good record of profits over past 5 to 10 years.

A P/B ratio of around 2.5 or lower.

I would not buy WOW, BIL or MBL because of my metrics, but I have bought IAG, PRG, and FUN

 

[Magdoran]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Originally Posted by ducati916


Magdoran
Quote:
In my view, there are no certainties in the market, and I defy anyone to successfully argue to the contrary.



J.P.Morgan Sr.

*Prices will Fluctuate*

jog on
d998

Hahahahahahah....

You crack me up Duc. Trust you to find a humourous angle to my sweeping comment! Just can’t get away with anything with you around, now can I??!

So funny!


Magdoran
P.S. I spilt my drink when I read this I laughed so hard!

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



Hi Magdoran,

Plainly, the high was called at 5386 ... there was no mention
of the date, because the market was clearly ahead of a
point, where price and time would square ..... once that key
resistance was hit, it would fall until time caught up with
the price.

With regard to the next high, as 5386 was already
considered as the extreme high from 2003 lows, any
subsequent highs would be naturally be considered as
lower, otherwise it would have been stated that
we were shooting for NEW highs.

------

You guys really expose your attitude as traders,
when you come out with comments like this:

'While I would love to research your works to evaluate them,
frankly the high price tags are a disincentive."

Any trader who thinks that US $654.30 is expensive, should
not be trading, as really that figure should be the profit from
just ONE (very) average trade.

Or you could just spend $10,000 + on a blackbox system,
like gryphon or hometrader, etc ...

-----

"Why don’t you as an act of good faith outline some of your
methods, and give some clues as to what the “secrets” are in
“Tunnel Thru the Air”? - Now that would be interesting."

..... and why don't you do the very considerable research and
write the books, then we'll ask you the same question ...

Do you REALLY think that anbody, who has done the
work will GIVE it to you on a platter ..... ???

Again, Gann quoted the Bible, saying that "pearls should
not be cast before swine" and what better way to sort out
the real keen traders from the freeloaders, than put a SMALL
price on it ..... ???

-----

FWIW ..... straight out of TTTTA, our forecast XJO low is on
07 November 2006 at 4040 ... it actually squares out at 4028,
but there will likely be an ambush, around 4040.

So, where's your time and price forecast for XJO low ... ???

..... and it will be interesting to hear from the EW crowd,
if they can, too.

happy days

yogi

 

[Nick Radge]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Admitedly I missed by a day. Lucky I don't get asked to post my bad calls because Joe may need more server space

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Do you REALLY think that anbody, who has done the
work will GIVE it to you on a platter ..... ???

This is a Gannism. Gann never gave anything to his students on platter, they had to pay big bucks first. In order to prove they were worthy traders they had to work out the code first. Sort of like an initiation ceremony. Probably passed down from his years as a Mason!!

FWIW ..... straight out of TTTTA, our forecast XJO low is on
07 November 2006 at 4040 ... it actually squares out at 4028,
but there will likely be an ambush, around 4040.



So, where's your time and price forecast for XJO low ... ???

..... and it will be interesting to hear from the EW crowd,
if they can, too.

Already done this in an earlier post with contingency plans in case I am wrong. Sometimes that happens, it's called trading. Will elaborate further as more market action progresses. What are your contingency plans if your crystal ball is wrong?
That's right!! The heavens don't make mistakes.

BTW trading is not about picking tops and bottoms. If that is your forte, then you are definately a loser, because this cannot be done with repeated consistancy. (Unless you think you are Gann of course)

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis



Hi wavepicker,

"BTW trading is not about picking tops and bottoms. If that is your forte, then you are definately a loser, because this cannot be done with repeated consistancy."

..... no, it is NOT about picking tops and bottoms, but it IS
about knowing, when there's been a change-in-trend, which
is marked by a high or low ..... and getting on a trend change
early means more profits, for most people.

-----

..... looking at the ASF competitions and many of those
posing as knowledgable traders here do not take part, but
they are more than willing to snipe at others ..... could it
be, that they have a fear of being shown up as frauds ... ???

happy days

yogi

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Unlike you most who enter see competion here as a bit of fun.
To win a weekly comp like this you need to take risks that you wouldnt normally take to trade.
You also need a good dose of luck. AUM +100% is a good stroke of luck.

Trading is about consistent profit.
Its now clear your about consistant earnings,you've found the key to your business isnt trading but selling the dream.


Your also under the delusion that profit is the sole property of Gann Traders---the select few who "know".

So you pick a few winners.
Your not here to help others become better traders ---your here to line your own pockets.
As for the generous Duck!!

4 yrs $30k to $310k traded live and fully disclosed.
knock all you like---the runs are on the board and I dont have to sell "secrets" to exist.

I give away sound business knowledge from years of successful application.


This thread has revealed much about the motives of the cuddly lovable yogi with the potty mouth. Friend to all who worship honey pots.

That should get your fuse well and truely burning.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

----

..... looking at the ASF competitions and many of those
posing as knowledgable traders here do not take part, but
they are more than willing to snipe at others ..... could it
be, that they have a fear of being shown up as frauds ... ???

Yogi, It has not been much of an effort to pick winning stocks the last 3 years. Especially in the ASX200 and the materials sector.

I would go so far as to say quite a few traders/investors on this site have done quite well in the last 3 yrs. Some much better than others ofcourse. WITH REAL MONEY. How could you not, unless you have been on the wrong side.

Personally I don't waste my time with competitions, prefer to do the real thing instead. Mainly in Foreign Exchange these days.
May I be so kind as to ask you for your projections of the US Dollar and foreign currencies in the next 12 months? Or does TTTA have only one crystal ball reserved for the stock market?

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

4 yrs $30k to $310k traded live and fully disclosed.

FFS can you please take out taxes and brokerage and all expenses before quoting your grandeous achievements please?

It irks me no end to hear traders telling me they made such and such when really they made maybe 40% of that cause of taxes and fees.

You are not doing yourself any favours believing your own hype either.

It is like me telling you I made a million on the stock market last year. A Million yen

 

[lesm]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You also need a good dose of luck. AUM +100% is a good stroke of luck.

I would have said analysis, timing and luck! :

Yes, the monthly comp is a good bit of fun and some friendly rivalry, we're not playing for sheep stations.

We now have the yearly comp that Realist has started up and those that are interested, are in it. They will probably have a bit of fun along the way.

Neither will actually prove one way or another who is or isn't a fraud or the gun TA/FA.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

FFS can you please take out taxes and brokerage and all expenses before quoting your grandeous achievements please?

It irks me no end to hear traders telling me they made such and such when really they made maybe 40% of that cause of taxes and fees.

You are not doing yourself any favours believing your own hype either.

It is like me telling you I made a million on the stock market last year. A Million yen

It is clear you obsession with taxes and fees is detrimental to your profitability. This is obvious.

I would love a $10 million tax bill.