Where are the markets heading?

[chops_a_must]

Now I am seeing extreme pessimism in the US Dollar, one again the financial press is calling the USD the next Mexican PESO, and down with the dollar, this is even greater than at the last low of DEC 2004 even though price has not made a new low. IMO this is a very significant divergence which might bring the commodities boom to it's knees in the next couple of years, thereafter, well who knows.

Ah well, we've gone from an end to the commoditites boom in the next few weeks/ months to the next few years.

Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.

But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.

Looks like a short term reversal to me. I've circled the similarities between the EOD today and other patterns. Almost exact double bottoms on green to red candles appear to give out quite a bit of energy. Works for stocks too. Should develop a system based on this...

Mind you, I did expect the XJO to get to 6100 or thereabouts. But what would I know? I'm just a hack.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[theasxgorilla]

But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.

Is there a sarcasm emoticon? I didn't buy the dip...was being a little facetious. The only new position I've opened since Feb '07 was OXR earlier this month. I added to positions in OSH and WES too, but all other positions date back to Oct-Dec '06.

Here are a few other indexes to put our market and the S&P500s movements over the last few days into perspective...both the Hangseng and the DAX continue to trade above their 40-day EMAs and neither has exhibited a lower high like the aforementioned markets.View attachment 10589

 

[theasxgorilla]

On 2 seperate occasions now, when the amount of users on ASF has broken into a new record, this has preceded a correction in the market.

Nice work Waves...thats up there with the Ed Seykota magazine cover indicator.

Just last friday another new record with 767 users online, and this week the market is down hard. Just a coincidence, or is this an example of extreme optimism??

I actually find that personally I'm more likely to post if my portfolio is doing well...more self-psychology work to be in done in this space, to be sure.

Another example, I read in the Herald Sun on the weekend that property prices are "EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF" in the next ten years. The writer of of this article was projecting the past trend into the future, which once again is an example of extreme optimism. Will be interesting to see what in fact does transpire but with such optimism I think prices have very little chance of going through the roof, as they have already done so for the last
10 years!!

As with your comments on another thread about the $US...when everybody thinks that something is a foregone conclusion the timing is usually right for a reversal. Joe Public and the media at large have believed that property sucked and would continue to suck as an investment in Australia (with the exception of mining boom affected regions) for 'years to come'. Apply the same reasoning to real estate and wonder why for the last couple of years rents are going up, prices are going up, people are re-entering the market and only now this hero-journalist comes along with his 10-year trend projection.

Now I am seeing extreme pessimism in the US Dollar, one again the financial press is calling the USD the next Mexican PESO, and down with the dollar, this is even greater than at the last low of DEC 2004 even though price has not made a new low. IMO this is a very significant divergence which might bring the commodities boom to it's knees in the next couple of years, thereafter, well who knows.

Or it could just be a running commentary from those who make a living from writing stories about the fluctuations of a market...as opposed to them who put their money in a place where it can take advantage of the macro-trends and spend their energy trying to ignore 'authoritative' sounding running commentary.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Is there a sarcasm emoticon? I didn't buy the dip...was being a little facetious. The only new position I've opened since Feb '07 was OXR earlier this month. I added to positions in OSH and WES too, but all other positions date back to Oct-Dec '06.

Here are a few other indexes to put our market and the S&P500s movements over the last few days into perspective...both the Hangseng and the DAX continue to trade above their 40-day EMAs and neither has exhibited a lower high like the aforementioned markets.View attachment 10589

o ok got u ASX know I feel like a dill,

well yeh next time please note that down! I am getting slower in my old age!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Ah well, we've gone from an end to the commoditites boom in the next few weeks/ months to the next few years.

Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.

Looks like a short term reversal to me. I've circled the similarities between the EOD today and other patterns. Almost exact double bottoms on green to red candles appear to give out quite a bit of energy. Works for stocks too. Should develop a system based on this...

Mind you, I did expect the XJO to get to 6100 or thereabouts. But what would I know? I'm just a hack.

Cheers,
Chops.

nice chart chops and thanks for posting that Bull charts xjo with volume looks great.

no you r on a winner in your thoughts thats what i look for I ment a higher low not higher high.

this looked good to me as well so far failed double top and yes a double bottom at this point.

 

[wavepicker]

Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.

Chops.

Hello Chops,

Not really, if USD is about to commence a multi year advance soon(say 2-3 years), then this ties in pretty closely with Gold continuing nett sideways/downward bias for the next 2 years, don't you think?? This market is running a 8.5 year cycle. Just remember cycles are not precision timing, sometimes price bottoms before the cycle and other times the cycle before price, so the 2008/9 window could be plus or minus a little, perhaps even a year.

Refer to the following link: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23

posts #446 and 454 on 20th May last year forecasting this current market in Gold.

Would estimate a rally in the USD to carry to about 100 and this would not be the end of the secular bear in the USD, but rather a temporary pause, but in the end the market will do what it likes. What is interesting however as mentioned in an earlier post is that pessimism now(bottom wave red B )is worse than that of the actual low in (red wave 5) in Dec 2004


Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Nice work Waves...thats up there with the Ed Seykota magazine cover indicator.



I actually find that personally I'm more likely to post if my portfolio is doing well...more self-psychology work to be in done in this space, to be sure.



As with your comments on another thread about the $US...when everybody thinks that something is a foregone conclusion the timing is usually right for a reversal. Joe Public and the media at large have believed that property sucked and would continue to suck as an investment in Australia (with the exception of mining boom affected regions) for 'years to come'. Apply the same reasoning to real estate and wonder why for the last couple of years rents are going up, prices are going up, people are re-entering the market and only now this hero-journalist comes along with his 10-year trend projection.



Or it could just be a running commentary from those who make a living from writing stories about the fluctuations of a market...as opposed to them who put their money in a place where it can take advantage of the macro-trends and spend their energy trying to ignore 'authoritative' sounding running commentary.

Hi ASXG,

It's certainly interesting looking at all this stuff indeed, not that I am a strong advocate of trading/investing on this sort of information in isolation. I like to see however how sentiment fits into other aspects of the market, such as patterns/pattern of the trend and volume.

I read a book on trying incorporate this sort of stuff into my own trading and investing called "The Art Of Contrary Thinking" by Humphrey B. Neill some time ago. A good read.

The hard thing about looking and using this sentiment criteria is actually having the nerve to take a trade against what the crowd is saying/thinking. I feel an uncertainty when doing this. However if you have a feeling of "what the hell am I doing, this is illogical??" then you probably have more chance of being on a winner. They say that the obvious trades are usually the ones that go wrong!!

Cheers

 

[Pommiegranite]

The hard thing about looking and using this sentiment criteria is actually having the nerve to take a trade against what the crowd is saying/thinking. I feel an uncertainty when doing this. However if you have a feeling of "what the hell am I doing, this is illogical??" then you probably have more chance of being on a winner. They say that the obvious trades are usually the ones that go wrong!!

Cheers

I couldn't agree more about going against the market.

I had only just heard of the saying 'buy on the sound of gunfire' , and so I did a few months before Iraq was invaded (the ftse 100 was around 60% of its current value).

It was quite a profitable move for me, but not nearly as much as if I'd stayed in the market for longer than 1 year.

Now I like to stay 50% in cash, so that I can 'top up' at various point on the way down.

 

[reece55]

I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out!

Hey ASX......

Same goes the other way round as you have indicated, for longer term positions (and I now you have a few per your posts), you don't just bail out at the first sign of down movement. I was referring to swing trades specifically, which is what I focus much of my analysis on...... TradeIT mentioned the fact that until we break below 6180 or so, then instead of a double top, we have an aggressive bottom. But if your a short term trader, you want the rest of the market to flesh it out for you, cause otherwise you are just gambling. I also I agree with Waves in saying that the most obvious moves are usually fakeouts, so whilst I still believe that momentum appears down and I think the logical move is down to 6100, if it shifts up and cathes the shorts in, I would be happy to collect some$$$!!

What most people haven't factored in is just the view that we might meander sideways for a while, with sector switches. This is my preferred view. They say that markets are only trending approximately 20% of the time - we have had a period of strong trending markets, we could just trade sideways whilst we digest our gains before moving up again.....

No matter what the short term view, in my opinion, the ASX is still in a bull trend - the parabolic rise is just on hold for a while!

Cheers

 

[bean]

China seems to have slipped of the radar.
Yet it appears as thought it could collapse at any stage.

Larger one day fall than it had in February could be on the cards
I think it bounce from its 50 day moving average the other day.
It may have went through it today?

Gold having a short countertrend rally for another two or three days?

US markets are not having anymore than three days in a row down.
Crash Protection Team in action
They try and move it up on the third day if possible.

Not very stable markets world wide

 

[reece55]

China seems to have slipped of the radar.
Yet it appears as thought it could collapse at any stage.

Larger one day fall than it had in February could be on the cards
I think it bounce from its 50 day moving average the other day.
It may have went through it today?

Gold having a short countertrend rally for another two or three days?

US markets are not having anymore than three days in a row down.
Crash Protection Team in action
They try and move it up on the third day if possible.

Not very stable markets world wide

Bean - our resident bear!!!

Now, US looks like it has recovered nicely last night, with the S&P 500 taking out the prior day open. The NASDAQ still looks on fire to me, with the SMH looking to establish new highs. Crash protection team or not, I don't mind making money from it!!!!

As for China, I think their market is irrelevant now - both the US and AUS shook off there last move down and I think everyone agrees that their economy is still going to buy our commods, but their stock market is overvalued. So, i've said it once and I'll say it again - China will no longer affect our markets.....

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Found one!!

One of the "Crash protection team!!"

 

[theasxgorilla]

o ok got u ASX know I feel like a dill,

well yeh next time please note that down! I am getting slower in my old age!

Haha, tell me about it!

I just thought it was a good poke at what everyone seems to be saying these days...the old saying, "buy low, sell high" has been replaced by, "I'm buying the dips"...cos we all know, there haven't been any real lows to speak of!

(yes, I know, no entirely true...but I'm refering to those lows where the funny-mentalists come in and buy all their companies for less money than the business has in the bank)!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Found one!!

One of the "Crash protection team!!"

THAT WAS A CLASSIC!

Tech I was laughing my head off when i saw that after reading bean's post!

I was imagining that fella and his mates briskly walking up Wall st in there suits and straight into the action buying every thing in site to the cheers of all the st locals!

Once again you nearly made me fall off my chair with laughter!

I think I found some more members!

 

[wayneL]

Get it right fellas!

It's the PLUNGE Protection Team or PPT.

 

[theasxgorilla]

And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.

 

[wayneL]

And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.

I think the dip buyers are doing their job for them.

 

[bean]

And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.

They did there job yesterday...They had to do it yesterday hoping it would stay up today

 

[bean]

I think the dip buyers are doing their job for them.

Well the dip buyers sure did move it today

 

[tech/a]

If you cant explain or understand something.

Just invent something that fits!