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Where are the markets heading?

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All eyes on the DOW tonight... but me too... I think we will have a bounce tommorrow... maybe a significant one... and then, timber... watch out below

Cheers
Brad
 
Yes, I think that the US has had a lot of down days in a row and is probably due to take a breather tonight...particularly given that both XAO and S&P500 are at significant support levels. If the US breaks overnight, its got to be a good indication of what to expect tomorrow on the XAO.
 
Well, I'm not really all that different from most people here.....

I focus on the XJO's and if you look at the index, we have almost completed our broadening top. We additionally almost have a double top, which would be confirmed on a break down below about 6170. In my opinion, it's going to take a lot of momentum to get us above the 6410 level. BHP was really holding us up for a while, but even it has succumb to the downside. Put another way, if you were buying the index, anyone who entered after the end of April is yielding either a loss or neutral at the present stage. Hard to believe, but thats where we are at the present stage.

So, whilst I believe there will be some fund manager pumping on Friday to ensure they all get bonuses, short term I wouldn't be surprised to see the 6,000 level. At the end of it all, this might flesh out the weak holders before another lunge up. But personally, I have my guard up. Bit disappointed however, because I had called a number of shorts that I didn't quite have a chance to enter yesterday due to work commitments (TSE comes to mind if you see my blog).

So, short term negative, but I'm not short selling the house. Plus, after such a lunge down, unless the US craps itself, there will be a retrace on Thurs and Fri.

Like your comments Wavepicker, guess this just illustrates that going with the crowd often loses you money. I nearly went long in PDN on yesterday, but after I saw that it was the number 1 stock bought on Comsec, I swiftly reconsidered my position (condolences to Snake here however) and decided against it.

Cheers and all the best trading to everyone..
Reece
 
kennas said:
Hasn't the H&S hit it's approximate target there Can, and coinciding with support, wouldn't you expect a halt as it has at 104 ish?
Click to expand...

That looks right to me Kennas it has dropped it's measured amount, but Can that rally that is taking place now could turn out to be a minor retrace and a continuation to further down side.
 
reece55 said:
Well, I'm not really all that different from most people here.....

I focus on the XJO's and if you look at the index, we have almost completed our broadening top. We additionally almost have a double top, which would be confirmed on a break down below about 6170. In my opinion, it's going to take a lot of momentum to get us above the 6410 level. BHP was really holding us up for a while, but even it has succumb to the downside. Put another way, if you were buying the index, anyone who entered after the end of April is yielding either a loss or neutral at the present stage. Hard to believe, but thats where we are at the present stage.

So, whilst I believe there will be some fund manager pumping on Friday to ensure they all get bonuses, short term I wouldn't be surprised to see the 6,000 level. At the end of it all, this might flesh out the weak holders before another lunge up. But personally, I have my guard up. Bit disappointed however, because I had called a number of shorts that I didn't quite have a chance to enter yesterday due to work commitments (TSE comes to mind if you see my blog).

So, short term negative, but I'm not short selling the house. Plus, after such a lunge down, unless the US craps itself, there will be a retrace on Thurs and Fri.

Like your comments Wavepicker, guess this just illustrates that going with the crowd often loses you money. I nearly went long in PDN on yesterday, but after I saw that it was the number 1 stock bought on Comsec, I swiftly reconsidered my position (condolences to Snake here however) and decided against it.

Cheers and all the best trading to everyone..
Reece
Click to expand...

Now that i have a found a good proxy server site, i can finally check out some of these fine Blogs! Nice Blog Reese.

Cheers,
 
So I'm confident now that unless 6170 is breached that there is further steam in the XJO this leg is nearing completion however if the low of 6170 is intact and a new high is made first target is 6610 then 6850.
Click to expand...

No point in being reactive to market moves.
There are points which will tell you if your/our current analysis is proven correct or needs to be re evaluated.

Wayne has pointed out some important leading indicators and I also see value in points TheRage has made.
 
tech/a said:
No point in being reactive to market moves.
Click to expand...

Actually tech, i thought this was the whole point of trading.
Instead of being predictive of market moves, rather, we should react to them, and have a plan to deal with whichever situation eventuates.
 
I see no problems with setting parameters using "Predictive" type analysis.
But reacting to every substantial move serves no purpose emotionally or profitably.

Again its the APPLICATION of the analysis NOT the analysis itself!
 
wayneL said:
A leading indicator to keep a close eye on is US treasuries. Lower treasuries mean higher longer term interest rates. Longer term interest rates will mean reduced profits for many companies and a re-evaluation of what risk premium means.
Click to expand...

Wayne, doesn't the rising bond yeild actually signal that the US economy is doing better then expected. I understand that higher interest rates are bad for companies in general but having said that isn't the other side of the coin (ie falling bond yeilds) a US recession or at least much poorer economic performance. I'm no economist so i'm a little confused which one is worse for stocks higher interest rates or a slower economy.
 
tech/a said:
No point in being reactive to market moves.
There are points which will tell you if your/our current analysis is proven correct or needs to be re evaluated.
Click to expand...

Sorry nizar, Tech has nailed it on the head with that comment.

That is a comment based on experience and no emotional attachment.

That is a big mistake i used to make, jumping on these first green days with out waiting to make sure it has forced my opinion to change about current market direction.

Kennas,

Hmmmm,

Couple of days will determine that!
 
kennas said:
Dead cat anyone?
Click to expand...

MMmmmmmm..... dead cat....... LOL....

Put your guard up gents, tomorrow no doubt will be up again with the fund managers playing funny buggers, but this is (in my mind) is definitely a dead cat bounce. Lighter volume all round today, the sellers are letting things settle a bit. Still say we will see 6100 - 6000 well before we get above 6410.....

Tech, Tradeit, you've all hit the nail on the head - we want to wait for confirmation that a recovery is here before leaping in with our money. Let the managed funds with significant $$ to do the dirty work.

By the way, cheers Can for the positive comments on the blog.

Cheers
 
reece55 said:
Tech, Tradeit, you've all hit the nail on the head - we want to wait for confirmation that a recovery is here before leaping in with our money.
Click to expand...

I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out! :)
 
Trade_It said:
Sorry nizar, Tech has nailed it on the head with that comment.

That is a comment based on experience and no emotional attachment.

That is a big mistake i used to make, jumping on these first green days with out waiting to make sure it has forced my opinion to change about current market direction.

Kennas,

Hmmmm,

Couple of days will determine that!
Click to expand...


No need to apologise.
You and tech are much more experienced than me.
I was wrong, thats okay.
You live and you learn, and i learnt something today.
Thanks :)
 
theasxgorilla said:
Yesterday! I'm buying the dip ;)

Seriously though, I've been between 60% and 100% since mid-03.
Click to expand...

Hmmm a very interesting move! I played that on the last rally on the dow xjo MBL.

I opened a long on the aussie$$. so not 100% any more

but after i saw that last rally get taken down, which i was in. I am now more interested to see what happens here, we are in a range on XJO now 6230 support 6380 resistence. since seeing that. I want to see how things take shape, a little more confrimation for me this time round. if it can break 6380 then 6400 that could be game on!

But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.
 

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