Where are all the bears now?

[Trembling Hand]

Where is that floor trader fella?

On the floor.... getting a ten count. Like all the other bears.

 

[chops_a_must]

More like flooredtrader you reckon?

Or even flawtrader?

 

[burglar]

More like flooredtrader you reckon?

Or even flawtrader?

That's low! :

 

[Intrinsic Value]

If you look at the fundamentals sooner or later when the money printing runs out of steam then the tea party is going to end and if you aren't fast enough to get out then you will be caught with your pants down.
It still might be a year or two away but I believe it is inevitable.

 

[FlyingFox]

If you look at the fundamentals sooner or later when the money printing runs out of steam then the tea party is going to end and if you aren't fast enough to get out then you will be caught with your pants down.
It still might be a year or two away but I believe it is inevitable.

Curious, which fundamentals are you referring to?

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Curious, which fundamentals are you referring to?

The mountain of debt out there that can never be repaid by countries such as Japan, USA and a lot of the Euro countries.

This big round of money printing is the last hurrah and after that there is nothing left.

GFC1 will look like at afternoon tea party compared to what is around the corner via GFC2.

 

[FlyingFox]

The mountain of debt out there that can never be repaid by countries such as Japan, USA and a lot of the Euro countries.

This big round of money printing is the last hurrah and after that there is nothing left.

GFC1 will look like at afternoon tea party compared to what is around the corner via GFC2.

You mentioned public debt. What are your thoughts on private debt?

P.S I read through my initial question and it sounded like I was disputing your claims. I am not; I would just like more discussion around it.

 

[FxTrader]

The mountain of debt out there that can never be repaid by countries such as Japan, USA and a lot of the Euro countries. This big round of money printing is the last hurrah and after that there is nothing left. GFC1 will look like at afternoon tea party compared to what is around the corner via GFC2.

It seems likely, given the continuing weakness in so many sectors of the major world economies, the currency wars (debasement) will continue, sovereign debt will continue to skyrocket and asset prices will continue to rise in response to unprecedented money creation. All that printed money has to go somewhere, principally stocks and bonds. Japan announces it will create billions of Yen out of thin air and the stock market there soars. It's likely to end badly but not in the near term.

It's interesting to see the money pouring into defensives lately, investors chasing yields as lower interest rates drive the lemmings into the market. I note with some interest that valuation specialists like Stockval and Skaffold are showing prices running way ahead of valuations on just about everything that's rocketed up in 2013. Such distortions are usually worth paying attention to.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

It seems likely, given the continuing weakness in so many sectors of the major world economies, the currency wars (debasement) will continue, sovereign debt will continue to skyrocket and asset prices will continue to rise in response to unprecedented money creation. All that printed money has to go somewhere, principally stocks and bonds. Japan announces it will create billions of Yen out of thin air and the stock market there soars. It's likely to end badly but not in the near term.

It's interesting to see the money pouring into defensives lately, investors chasing yields as lower interest rates drive the lemmings into the market. I note with some interest that valuation specialists like Stockval and Skaffold are showing prices running way ahead of valuations on just about everything that's rocketed up in 2013. Such distortions are usually worth paying attention to.

No one knows when things will turn bad it could be a year or two away but all the signs are there.

You cant keep printing money you don't have ad infinitum without consequences.

 

[burglar]

These guys agree with you!!

 

[CanOz]

There are a few bears around....all be it most are licking ther wounds from Fridays scramble to cover...

Near-Record NYSE Margin Debt Leads to Caution: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing to buy U.S. stocks is close
enough to a record to cause concern that prices may not rise
much longer, according to Cullen Roche, founder of Orcam
Financial Group LLC.
The CHART OF THE DAY compares the total amount of margin
debt at New York Stock Exchange member firms, according to data
compiled by the exchange, with the performance of the Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index.
Margin debt amounted to $379.5 billion in March, the latest
month available. The total was the second-highest in the history
of the NYSE’s figures, going back to 1959. The highest was the
$381.4 billion recorded in July 2007.
“It’s rather alarming to see NYSE margin debt just shy of
its all-time high,” Roche wrote yesterday in a posting on his
Pragmatic Capitalism blog. The borrowing points to “a fragile
foundation” for the current advance in stocks, he wrote.
The 2007 record was set three months before the end of a
five-year bull market, which sent the S&P 500 to an all-time
high. The index surpassed its peak five weeks ago, after more
than doubling from its March 2009 low, and later closed as much
as 2.1 percent higher.
Investors owed $92.2 billion in March after subtracting
credit balances in cash and margin accounts, according to the
NYSE’s data. Holders of cash accounts have to pay the entire
purchase price for stocks up front, while those with margin
accounts can borrow as much as 50 percent of the price.

For Related News and Information:
NYSE member margin debt: ALLX MARG <GO>
Internet home page for NYSE: NYSE <GO>
Stock-market top stories: TOP STK <GO>
Charts, graphs home page: CHART <GO>

--Editors: Jeff Sutherland, Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporter on this story:
David Wilson in New York at +1-212-617-2248 or
dwilson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or
chrisnagi@bloomberg.net

 

[odds-on]

Hi,

I only ever go long on single stocks and have no experience of using ETFs, so take it easy...

Any thoughts on this product? I think it might come in handy later this year.

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/bear-fund/#each-overview

Feedback will be appreciated.

Cheers

odds-on

 

[white_goodman]

The mountain of debt out there that can never be repaid by countries such as Japan, USA and a lot of the Euro countries.

This big round of money printing is the last hurrah and after that there is nothing left.

GFC1 will look like at afternoon tea party compared to what is around the corner via GFC2.

the amount of moeny printing isnt as large as people think, the amount of treasuries held by the Fed is at historical norms of around 15% of total... the 'issue' is that roughly half is under 2 years expiry and may cause inflationary pressures if they arent rolled over as they typically are

 

[drsmith]

There are a few bears around....all be it most are licking ther wounds from Fridays scramble to cover...

Even more interesting would be the graphic of margin debt in proportion to the overall capitalisation of the S&P500 and over a longer time period.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Even more interesting would be the graphic of margin debt in proportion to the overall capitalisation of the S&P500 and over a longer time period.

To the end of march.....a bit higher now....



A lot more irrational exuberance left yet.....giddy up!

 

[Trembling Hand]

A lot more irrational exuberance left yet.....giddy up!

View attachment 52126

I'm surprised its so low! Been sitting between 2-3 % for ever

 

[Knobby22]

I'd like to see how it compares to margin levels in the late 80's when the last crash occurred.

The world's not in a good place so people are trying to protect their money. The share market which contains many large operators with businesses that are difficult to compete with due to government regulation and oligopoly behaviour are logical places to invest in.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Giddy up.....

 

[chops_a_must]

I'm certainly on watch at the moment.

Finally, some "experts" seem to be bullish.

And there are some classic top formations in charts like CSL and TLS starting to pop up.

 

[sydboy007]

I wont vall myself a bear, but I am starting to sell out of the stocks I own that have shot up 305+ over the last few months.

Starting to move into some bonds that pay a decent yield - 4%+ CPI seems to be a yield I can live with these days.

I might miss out on the tide going higher and higher, but I'm comfortable to leave some for the next guy to take a punt on.