When will the bear go away?

[treefrog]

I've long held the view that the US in particular entered a secular bear market nearly 9 years ago and that we won't see sustained upward moves there until it's over. Historically, they've taken 15 - 20 years and I can see no reason for this one to be any quicker.

So the second half of next decade would be my guess for the broad market. Of course some stocks will do very well long before then and the task is to identify which ones and invest accordingly.

For the traders, some of the strongest bull moves happen in bear markets (as we've seen recently) so lots of opportunities both short and medium term for traders.

I'll become a bull when the p/e for the broad market (ie the index) is around 7 - 8 and most people have lost interest in shares. That's the P/E calculated on trailing earnings by the way, not some fancy model or forecast earnings. Until then I'll stick to sectors likely to do well and ignore the rest.

this is some of the best actionable advice you will get - and it will be investable/tradeable.
many "became familiar" with the markets during the recent bull run when a drover's dog could make good money in the market - everything was UP (well almost)
you need to retreat to sectors (this is an excellent forum except for sector speak - its one of the things this forum does not do well)
and trading/investing through sector analysis means as Smurf indicates - concentrate on which sectors are running and then seek out the performing shares that are pulling the sector with them

 

[tech/a]

The problem always has been with sector analysis----getting alerted early enough to take advantage of any move.

It takes a fair amount of movement in a few stocks to alert that a sector is on the move.

By the time its clear in most cases the move your looking for is on the chart.

Like most "Truism" theories practical application in the real world isnt as plain and simple as everyone thinks.

Ive done a lot of work on this Top down approach but really think you need a way to identify those sectors EMERGING not outpreforming.

Interested in any techniques others have found work for this---or any success at all as I'm yet to find an appreciable difference.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Sector analysis made easy.

 

[Knobby22]

My 5 year old was watching Playschool and it gave me the shivers!

" There's a bear in there..."

 

[Aussiejeff]

My 5 year old was watching Playschool and it gave me the shivers!

" There's a bear in there..."

Not just any bear. The Great Global Bear.

The creation of this feral behemoth is obviously one of the prices we have to pay for a mad-scientist-like policy of "globalization" at any cost, by all the world's "civilised" nations.

Remember? All that mantra about Globalization having SOOOO many benefits for wealth creation? Pity no-one took the time to figure out during the fiscal gold-rush what might happen if a bunch of thieving ratbags and highwaymen (read: uber companies & banking organisations) ganged together and abused the whole globalization idea for their own profit and benefit - with all risk to be carried by the dumb suckers (hey, that's us!) in Mainstreet.

Well. You can now take the Globalization Genie (who spawned the Great Global Bear) and shove 'im where the sun don't shine. Don't let 'im back out unless he's chained and hogtied.....