WHC - Whitehaven Coal

[divs4ever]

Domestic Coal Reservation Scheme From 1 April 2023, Whitehaven’s mines have been obliged by the NSW State Government to make available specific volumes of suitable thermal coal for supply to NSW domestic power stations.
In aggregate these volumes are capped at the lower of 200kt per quarter or 5% of each mine’s expected saleable thermal coal production. The tonnage obligation for each mine must be made available to the extent the volumes expected to be produced during the quarter were not contractually committed prior to 19 January 2023.
Evergreen contracts are recognised as being “committed”. During the September quarter, Whitehaven supplied a total of 52kt of coal under the NSW Domestic Coal Reservation Policy to a number of NSW power stations.
The ‘below quota’ volume was a result of Whitehaven having delivered ‘above quota’ domestic reservation coal in the prior quarter. The coal supplied was primarily sourced from Werris Creek at an average price of A$113/t.
On 6 September 2023, the NSW State Government announced that the NSW Domestic Coal Reservation Policy will cease on 30 June 2024

an extract from their quarterly report

makes you wonder what other state governments will do it the future ( elsewhere )

 

[divs4ever]

hmmm

glancing through the preso

WHC indicates it has bought 100% of the mines ( not just the BHP share of the alliance )

i guess we will find out about that later

 

[divs4ever]

▪ Market diversification ─ by geography: increased exposure to growing India and Southeast Asia

that sounds attractive to me , but not enough to raise my price target

 

[qldfrog]

I worked for Bma specifically Blackwater..bhp selling pretending that met coal is dirty..sulfur etc is absolutely BS reason.
One it is one of the best cleaner coal available, and washplants are here for a reason .
Bhp is the world champion in making the dumbest moves.
Billiton, in the past but also recently
Spew out s32, get in gas at worst time overpaid then sold at a discount, got rid of petroleum, and now coal
A bunch of woke top management always riding the latest wef agenda and ******* up the company .
Under that principle, it is so a very good deal for WHC .

 

[divs4ever]

I worked for Bma specifically Blackwater..bhp selling pretending that met coal is dirty..sulfur etc is absolutely BS reason.
One it is one of the best cleaner coal available, and washplants are here for a reason .
Bhp is the world champion in making the dumbest moves.
Billiton, in the past but also recently
Spew out s32, get in gas at worst time overpaid then sold at a discount, got rid of petroleum, and now coal
A bunch of woke top management always riding the latest wef agenda and ******* up the company .
Under that principle, it is so a very good deal for WHC .

i was a big Kloppers fan , maybe he is still laughing

i can see BHP becoming a much smaller company soon

only a $20 share to me ( given i have some free S32 and WDS now )

will be interesting to see if this is too big for WHC to digest ( or not )

 

[finicky]

Bought 1,000 @ 6.85
WHC reckons the purchases from BHP will be 70% earnings accretive for WHC in the first year.
The new mines will more than double WHC's output. Acquisition funded with cash and bridging debt of $900m - repayment in tranches. Not expected to require an increase in equity (book value). it's already trading at only 1.1 x book value. I like that the mines are metallurgical coal but don't like the QLD location due to the state government's recent outrageous tax expropriation from wicked old coal miners. The premier can project moral superiority while ripping off the coal miners at the same time
Greg reckons the BHP mines are ev/ebitda 2.9x whereas WHC trades at 3.2x
Chart I'm afraid is not clear to me.

 

[divs4ever]

Bought 1,000 @ 6.85
WHC reckons the purchases from BHP will be 70% earnings accretive for WHC in the first year.
The new mines will more than double WHC's output. Acquisition funded with cash and bridging debt of $900m - repayment in tranches. Not expected to require an increase in equity (book value). it's already trading at only 1.1 x book value. I like that the mines are metallurgical coal but don't like the QLD location due to the state government's recent outrageous tax expropriation from wicked old coal miners. The premier can project moral superiority while ripping off the coal miners at the same time
Greg reckons the BHP mines are ev/ebitda 2.9x whereas WHC trades at 3.2x
Chart I'm afraid is not clear to me.

good luck

i LOVE WHC but not at that price ( average buying price sub $1.40 ) ( and the investment cash safely rescued )

i just hope my profits keep running much longer ( harder would be nice as well )

don't blame the government , blame the witless opposition , that can't even ruffle it's own hair , hard enough to even remember who to vote for ( or against )

 

[finicky]

@divs4ever it was perturbing to be finally capitulating and buying at 6 x the price it was when a few of were discussing it here @ $1. Just kept staring at it at that price back then, paralysed. What was being hidden from us hoi polloi when the market players were relentlessly selling it down was the vibe - turned out there was nothing wrong with it - one of the best contrarian plays on the asx. China coal ban, energy transition, kuflu, all just boogeymen.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever it was perturbing to be finally capitulating and buying at 6 x the price it was when a few of were discussing it here @ $1. Just kept staring at it at that price back then, paralysed. What was being hidden from us hoi polloi when the market players were relentlessly selling it down was the vibe - turned out there was nothing wrong with it - one of the best contrarian plays on the asx. China coal ban, energy transition, kuflu, all just boogeymen.

i grabbed my first parcel when the Greenies were trying to block Maules Creek

WHC has made me look ( erroneously ) as a trend trader

if it stays above $20 ( i reduced at one point @ $10 ) i will hide them in the 'bottom drawer' and just enjoy the divs. )

 

[finicky]

@divs4ever I suppose the divvy will be reduced while they pay back the bridging loan for the acquisition?

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever I suppose the divvy will be reduced while they pay back the bridging loan for the acquistion?

i would expect so ( but i have been wrong before , it might be paid from increased profits and tax write-downs )

 

[finicky]

How does a tax write-down change cashflow?

 

[divs4ever]

it does at the ATO that would be $900 mill they aren't getting in the near future

however i would think WHC will consider available franking credits as an important guide to the div. payouts in the next few years

and WHC might also reap some cost synergies on the way .

 

[finicky]

Dear diary, yesterday, Thursday 16th, I doubled down and tacked on a other 1,000 WHC @ 6.69
What a wicked old fart I am. I spare a thought (but not for long) for Greta and all the other little children whose future I am stealing. The kids have proven that Australian coal is a factor in the anthropogenic climate emergency and I can't even be bothered reading their peer reviewed research. Greta flew in to a demo recently, garbed in a Palestinian shawl, and lent her authorative voice to Hamas ..

Must admit this monthly chart could be dodgy. Normally I would stand aside and let this weak looking rally resolve. There's a chance it could be a bearish flag - undecided.

MONTHLY

 

[divs4ever]

Dear diary, yesterday, Thursday 16th, I doubled down and tacked on a other 1,000 WHC @ 6.69
What a wicked old fart I am. I spare a thought (but not for long) for Greta and all the other little children whose future I am stealing. The kids have proven that Australian coal is a factor in the anthropogenic climate emergency and I can't even be bothered reading their peer reviewed research. Greta flew in to a demo recently, garbed in a Palestinian shawl, and lent her authorative voice to Hamas ..

Must admit this monthly chart could be dodgy. Normally I would stand aside and let this weak looking rally resolve. There's a chance it could be a bearish flag - undecided.

MONTHLY
View attachment 165846

good luck

i snuck into WHC while the Greens were causing trouble

am very nicely in front here ( with the cash rescued )

am very likely to leave this in the 'bottom drawer ' as a div. stock

if next years guesstimate of 25 cents div. for the year is accurate that gives me a 17.8% div. return ( plus franking )

i doubt my 'saver's account while even pay that return

 

[finicky]

Whitehaven 3rd best mover of the ASX200 for the week. Three gold stocks in the week's top10.
James Gerrish comment today,

• Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) +3.41% is finding some support and looks good here.

 

[finicky]

But they promised. I think our leader (Albo) should put his hand up to spearhead a Western admonition to China. It would mean a lot of travel and receptions but as genuine Aussie bloke who has international stature he's the natural choice. Furthermore he can project moral force by highlighting his government's readiness to wreck our own coal industry.

"China has decommissioned 70.45 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired plants in the last decade, and is building far more renewable energy capacity than any other country. Analysts say coal use may peak as soon as this year.

But a sudden flurry of approvals of new coal-fired plants in recent years raises doubts about China's commitment to phasing out the fossil fuel, and its key role in the country's energy security plans shows the difficult task that lies ahead for world leaders."

In China's coal country, full steam ahead with new power plants despite climate pledges

A sudden flurry of approvals of new coal-fired plants in recent years raises doubts about China's commitment to phasing out the fossil fuel.

www.reuters.com

 

[divs4ever]

But they promised. I think our leader (Albo) should put his hand up to spearhead a Western admonition to China. It would mean a lot of travel and receptions but as genuine Aussie bloke who has international stature he's the natural choice. Furthermore he can project moral force by highlighting his government's readiness to wreck our own coal industry.

"China has decommissioned 70.45 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired plants in the last decade, and is building far more renewable energy capacity than any other country. Analysts say coal use may peak as soon as this year.

But a sudden flurry of approvals of new coal-fired plants in recent years raises doubts about China's commitment to phasing out the fossil fuel, and its key role in the country's energy security plans shows the difficult task that lies ahead for world leaders."

In China's coal country, full steam ahead with new power plants despite climate pledges

A sudden flurry of approvals of new coal-fired plants in recent years raises doubts about China's commitment to phasing out the fossil fuel.

www.reuters.com

View attachment 166528

i hope that is not a gas barbie , BTW what sad bits of meat , my kidneys are probably bigger than that ( nicely pickled as well )

did anyone notice China is building nuclear power plants as well , i wonder if they sell the waste to North Korea

 

[finicky]

The anti-Labor twitterati it's said have pointed out there are no grill bar marks on the cooked side of the meat and how come Albo is dressed in woollens at a Barbie. Albo says the meat was seared beforehand and it was a cold day. A true leftie. I'm betting the entire thing was a set constructed by his media crew. Haha look at greasy Andrews with his tongs at the ready pausing in his cooking duties.

 

[finicky]

This seems to be breaking above $8, a level where I would have expected more resistance? Not confirmed yet I guess.

In @rcw1's parlance, I'm up two and a half 'gorillas' on my November purchases of 2,000 shrs of this.


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