WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[finicky]

Not just the WDS so that’s coming down if that’s the case.

Exactly. That is the case he's making: Oil, S&P500 and with a lag - BTC and Gold, ALL going down like a drunk on the stairs in early 2025.
And he's not alone: David Hunter on twitter, Felix Zulauf featured on various YouTube channels. And of course me
Maybe Trump's tariff threats/measures will hurt before they help?

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe Trump's tariff threats/measures will hurt before they help?

that is the way i think it will happen ,

many US wells aren't currently producing , and i heard somewhere frackers need something like $70 a barrel to break even

BUT Trump's plan was better than the other one ( but neither were painless soft-landings )

and maybe Trump won't be able to do enough , quickly enough

 

[DannyB0000]

WDS went as low as $16.09 during the March 2020 crash, oil went negative that year, there would have been a lot of fear and pessimism when that happened. WDS then gradually climbed to about $37 in 2022.

I bought Karoon Energy(KAR) last week because it was oversold, about $1.21.

 

[divs4ever]

WDS went as low as $16.09 during the March 2020 crash, oil went negative that year, there would have been a lot of fear and pessimism when that happened. WDS then gradually climbed to about $37 in 2022.

I bought Karoon Energy(KAR) last week because it was oversold, about $1.21.

i don't seem to have bought any WPL ( now WDS ) in 2020 i was busy shopping elsewhere

 

[Rabbithop]

The mind boggles...Agree to some extend of what Chris Vermeulen said.
Expecting $45 oil...mmm. A safe haven for conservative retiree investors for dividends of and it still will be. Most retirees are simply too lazy to move their stocks, believer of good times will return so will good dividends.. I picked some up at $23 and will pick more up for $20 if it happens.

 

[Rabbithop]

Exactly. That is the case he's making: Oil, S&P500 and with a lag - BTC and Gold, ALL going down like a drunk on the stairs in early 2025.
And he's not alone: David Hunter on twitter, Felix Zulauf featured on various YouTube channels. And of course me
Maybe Trump's tariff threats/measures will hurt before they help?

Maybe a Correction.

 

[divs4ever]

The mind boggles...Agree to some extend of what Chris Vermeulen said.
Expecting $45 oil...mmm. A safe haven for conservative retiree investors for dividends of and it still will be. Most retirees are simply too lazy to move their stocks, believer of good times will return so will good dividends.. I picked some up at $23 and will pick more up for $20 if it happens.

too lazy or are in a nice position already , and a sell/buy again later isn't worth the cost/risk

i am sitting rather nicely in some places and i have only been investing since 2011 , imagine how the folks who staterdin 2000 and 2009 are doing with their winners

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe a Correction.

some would argue that SOME US stocks ( and some Oz stocks ) have already corrected after coming down more than 25% from recent highs ( and record highs )

a widespread correction might not be so wide across the entire market

 

[finicky]

On the other hand, Philipp Hofflin was saying this about Woodside a week ago, 15 Dec 2024:

Hofflin: "Given the strong gains in the general insurance sector, we now see the energy sector as the most undervalued opportunity. We see Woodside (ASX: WDS) as the best opportunity in this sector and it is one of our largest positions.
The share price is still about 30% below the pre-COVID levels and down 35% from a year ago odd ... and all that with the Asian gas price at US$15/mbtu! It trades on an about 15% FCF [free cash flow] yield, although it does have growth investment commitments, of course.

Since the GFC, WDS has traded on the same EV/EBITDA multiple as the S&P 500 Energy index – if that were the case today, WDS’s share price would be $42/share - or 70% higher. The sell-down of Louisiana LNG, expected sometime in the first half of 2025, may be the catalyst to reduce the deep discount Woodside is on."

Dr Philipp Hofflin on where the best opportunities lie in an bubbly ASX

It's been rough to watch the most expensive companies in the market get even more so. But that doesn't mean opportunities don't exist.

www.livewiremarkets.com

While I don't exactly follow Philipp Hofflin I avidly read anything I come across by him since he said this about WDS and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) back in Oct 2020 - WHC was $1:

"If you aren’t long energy now, you probably never will be"​

"Hofflin explains why Australia’s largest gas producer Woodside and mid cost curve coal miner Whitehaven are so appealing at current prices, albeit as “special high-risk, high-return propositions.”

If you aren’t long energy now, you probably never will be

Demand for hydrocarbons is driving a quarter-decade investment opportunity, despite a revolution in electric vehicles and renewables over the longer term, says Lazard Asset Management portfolio manager Dr Philipp Hofflin. The current $166 price of a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) is the lowest...

www.livewiremarkets.com

A quick look at the charts will tell you what it would have rewarded you to act upon this advice around that time in Oct 2020 (I didn't) - especially Whitehaven, no one wanted WHC.

Held

 

[divs4ever]

"If you aren’t long energy now, you probably never will be"

well i have several holdings in energy companies ( and three of them at no investment cash risk - BPT , NHC , and WHC )

but extra WDS is NOT a high priority for me currently .. i am even tepid on extra BHP

but in relatively early gives my some interesting re-balancing options