WDS - Woodside Energy Group

divs4ever said:

i reduced mine in April 2023 @ $34.25

most of the holding now courtesy of the BHP offloading the petroleum arm

took a BIG step back from considering to add here , the failed STO deal kept me nervous after years of being disappointed when it was WPL , but at least the current cash risk ( in WDS ) is trivial

i was still waiting for the BHP deal to prove to be 'transformational ' ,

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How many times have Australian companies bought a bargain in the U.S, to find out they have been sold a bunny a few years later and have to write it off.
Hopefully this isn't another in the long list.
I don't hold, was thinking of moving back in, but this latest aquisition has turned me off, I'll stick with waiting on opportunities to top up the ETF.
Picking winners in this political climate is way too hard IMO.

sptrawler said:

How many times have Australian companies bought a bargain in the U.S, to find out they have been sold a bunny a few years later and have to write it off.
Hopefully this isn't another in the long list.
I don't hold, was thinking of moving back in, but this latest aquisition has turned me off, I'll stick with waiting on opportunities to top up the ETF.
Picking winners in this political climate is way too hard IMO.

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very hard ( IMO )

SCARBOROUGH PRIMARY APPROVAL CHALLENGE TO BE DISMISSED

Woodside and the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) have agreed to dismiss the ACF’s challenge to a primary environmental approval for Woodside’s Scarborough Energy Project.
The Scarborough Energy Project has all primary environmental approvals in place and offshore work is progressing well.
The Federal Court proceedings sought an injunction to stop offshore activities for the Scarborough Energy Project.
The parties have agreed to seek orders from the Court to dismiss the proceedings.
Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill welcomed the agreement to dismiss the case.“Litigation against energy projects like Scarborough is an ineffective way to pursue solutions to global climate and energy challenges.
Such approaches create needless uncertainty for businesses,communities and the people who depend on the energy these projects produce.“
The Scarborough reservoir contains less than 0.1% carbon dioxide and combined with processing design efficiencies will be one of the lowest carbon intensity sources of LNG delivered into north Asian markets.
“The Scarborough Energy Project will make an important contribution to energy security in Western Australia while providing energy to Asian economies as they decarbonise.“
The project is supported by and aligns with the energy policies of both the Australian and Western Australian Governments.
”The Scarborough Energy Project has been the subject of rigorous environmental assessments by regulators including the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority;
the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water;
the Western Australian Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety;
the Western Australian Department of Water and Environmental Regulation and the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority.
The ACF, represented by the Environmental Defenders Office, commenced the Federal Court of Australia proceedings in relation to the offshore environmental assessment of the Scarborough Energy Project in June 2022. Page 2 of 3

About the Scarborough Energy Project
The Scarborough Energy Project comprises the Scarborough Joint Venture, the Pluto Train 2 Joint Venture and modifications to Pluto Train 1 to process Scarborough gas.
The Scarborough Energy Project was 67% complete at the end of June 2024 and is on track to deliver the first LNG cargo in 2026.1
The Scarborough Energy Project is expected to generate more than A$50 billion in direct and indirect taxes for Australia’s economy, more than 3000 jobs during the construction phase and create or sustain almost 600 jobs on average during operations.2

i hold WDS

divs4ever said:

SCARBOROUGH PRIMARY APPROVAL CHALLENGE TO BE DISMISSED

Woodside and the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) have agreed to dismiss the ACF’s challenge to a primary environmental approval for Woodside’s Scarborough Energy Project.
The Scarborough Energy Project has all primary environmental approvals in place and offshore work is progressing well.
The Federal Court proceedings sought an injunction to stop offshore activities for the Scarborough Energy Project.
The parties have agreed to seek orders from the Court to dismiss the proceedings.
Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill welcomed the agreement to dismiss the case.“Litigation against energy projects like Scarborough is an ineffective way to pursue solutions to global climate and energy challenges.
Such approaches create needless uncertainty for businesses,communities and the people who depend on the energy these projects produce.“
The Scarborough reservoir contains less than 0.1% carbon dioxide and combined with processing design efficiencies will be one of the lowest carbon intensity sources of LNG delivered into north Asian markets.
“The Scarborough Energy Project will make an important contribution to energy security in Western Australia while providing energy to Asian economies as they decarbonise.“
The project is supported by and aligns with the energy policies of both the Australian and Western Australian Governments.
”The Scarborough Energy Project has been the subject of rigorous environmental assessments by regulators including the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority;
the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water;
the Western Australian Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety;
the Western Australian Department of Water and Environmental Regulation and the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority.
The ACF, represented by the Environmental Defenders Office, commenced the Federal Court of Australia proceedings in relation to the offshore environmental assessment of the Scarborough Energy Project in June 2022. Page 2 of 3

About the Scarborough Energy Project
The Scarborough Energy Project comprises the Scarborough Joint Venture, the Pluto Train 2 Joint Venture and modifications to Pluto Train 1 to process Scarborough gas.
The Scarborough Energy Project was 67% complete at the end of June 2024 and is on track to deliver the first LNG cargo in 2026.1
The Scarborough Energy Project is expected to generate more than A$50 billion in direct and indirect taxes for Australia’s economy, more than 3000 jobs during the construction phase and create or sustain almost 600 jobs on average during operations.2

i hold WDS

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How much was the bribe?.. sorry agreement?
What a shithole of a country this is becoming for mining ...

LOL

yes i thought similar ( and given Woodsides' past ... )

nice to see some things rarely change

( compare that to the RRL saga , and all they want is a high-voltage transmission line )

‘Perfect storm’ warning issued to Australia’s east coast energy market​

Australia’s east coast energy market is facing a perfect storm of higher global LNG prices, volatile and intermittent renewables penetration, coal plant outages and extreme weather, increasing fears of gas shortages, spiking power bills and blackouts.

.......

With Headlines like this You'd think WDS would be on fire.......
Hoping it will be a steady rise from here..... Def got enough now and won't add any more.

The results were fairly well received. Up 4% on a market down day.

Could this be the start of a share price recovery?
@debtfree

Ferret said:

The results were fairly well received. Up 4% on a market down day.

Could this be the start of a share price recovery?

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and Chevron having a look at it, according to scuttlebutt

Wrestling with my buy button hand right now, like Dr Strangelove.
Ex $1 dividend today, price down 1.80

Held
Holding

DIrector buying
Just noticed 2 Sept announcement that Richard Goyder picked up 10,000 shares on market @ $27.
Plus two other directors bought fairly token amounts on same terms.

finicky said:

DIrector buying
Just noticed 2 Sept announcement that Richard Goyder picked up 10,000 shares on market @ $27.
Plus two other directors bought fairly token amounts on same terms.

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i noticed it dipped below $25 this afternoon

but not currently tempted to add to the existing holding

Woodside downgraded to "Sell": Citi flags M&A fears and bearish oil price outlook​

Sep 5, 202413:35 GMT+12

WDS−6.75%
Key points:

• Citi downgraded Woodside from Neutral to Sell, citing expectations of lower oil prices, larger-than-expected asset depreciation and further M&A activity
• The analysts forecast oil prices to hit US$60 a barrel by 2025 amid slowing demand and robust supply
• Citi says further M&A and high gearing may place pressure on near-term dividends

Citi has downgraded its rating for Woodside

WDS from Neutral to Sell amidst a bearish macroeconomic outlook as well as uncertainties around its dividend payout and M&A activity.
Woodside shares opened 5.9% lower on Thursday, which includes it trading ex-dividend for 101 cents a piece (a yield of approximately 3.7%).
The analysts lowered their target price from $25 to $24.50 to reflect weaker oil prices, asset depreciation and poor returns on recent acquisitions.
Why the downgrade
Below, we'll highlight the moving pieces to the downgrade.
#1 Sangomar depreciation changes: Citi's NPAT forecasts have been consistently coming in too high. The August result revealed one helpful clue as to why their forecasts were wrong: Sangomar depreciation. The new data increased the depreciable asset base for Sangomar significantly:

• 2024: +US$0.6 billion
• 2025: +US$0.7 billion
• 2026: +US$1.4 billion

#2 Bearish oil prices: Citi projects US$60 per barrel oil in 2025, well below consensus. This forecast is based on:

• Slowing demand
• Robust non-OPEC supply growth
• Spare global oil production capacity

This bearish outlook directly impacts Woodside's earnings forecasts, with Citi noting "lower revenue is starting from a lower figure against the higher 'fixed' expenses on the P&L."
#3 Mixed M&A track record: Woodside has struggled to release the full value of recent acquisitions. The report cited:

• The acquisition of the Wheatstone, Balnaves and Kitimat parcel of assets in 2015 has, we estimate, been written down by >90% of the purchase price.
• Sangomar is at risk of being NPV negative if the PSC (product-sharing contract) with the government become more onerous.
• BHP-P assets have had their production outlook downgraded, Wildlingappraisal was unsuccessful, and an impairment has been recorded againstShenzi.
• We have been underwhelmed by Driftwood and Beaumont, and the share price reactions suggest the same is true of the broader market.

The analysts also flagged the US$7 billion in exploration expenses since the completion of Pluto's final investment decision, cost overruns (Pluto and Sangomar) and poor capital allocation.
#4 When will we see strong free cash flow: Citi expects Woodside's free cash flow yield to track around 2.5% in 2024 and 2025 but dramatically improve towards the second half of this decade.
"The free cash flow yields look very high once Scarborough comes online, and higher again with Driftwood," the report said.
Their models forecast free cash flow yields of approximately 10% in 2029 and almost 20% in 2030. "We can understand the long-term investor positioning for this. However, we are just not convinced that the FCF yield is going to be as high as what we present," the analysts warned.
#5 M&A may undermine cash flows: CEO Meg O'Neil's comments suggest potential M&A in upstream and blue ammonia sectors. Citi anticipates further acquisitions to address:

• Limited upstream diversification beyond Scarborough
• Growing Atlantic Basin LNG portfolio
• Single blue ammonia project

#6 Gearing and dividends: Citi's analysis, under a conservative oil price scenario, without factoring in a Driftwood sale, projects peak gearing of 19% in 2026, with high levels persisting through the decade. This financial outlook could prompt bondholders to advocate for strategic changes, such as dividend reductions, issuing hybrid bonds, or even raising equity to support capital expenditures.
The long haul
Citi outlines two key conditions that "must be met for buying Woodside": A trough in dividends and the completion of deal-making activities. However, they caution, "neither of which, we believe, can be satisfied today."
While Woodside shares have already dropped approximately 32% over the past twelve months, there doesn't seem to be a positive catalyst in sight.

Greg Canavan pointing out today the oil is seldom this cheap relative to the S&P500.

Excerpt:

"Is the dominant narrative of 2024 losing its allure? It certainly looks like it. I’ve said previously that this sets the stage for a rotation into the unloved commodity sector.
But it may take some time. While the fear of a global recession is around, commodities will be under the pump. But from a relative value perspective, commodities look very attractive here.
For example, the chart below shows oil relative to the S&P 500.
It’s only been this cheap twice in the past 35 years. Once during the COVID shutdown, and in 1998 following the Asian crisis and a supply glut.


That doesn’t mean it can’t get worse in the short-term. But on a longer-term time horizon, oil looks attractive here."

Didn't see this coming /s.
The Perth western suburbs blue rinse set and their brethren may soon need another outlet for their faux indignation.

It would be a great shame for WA/Australia to lose WDS in any way, they are a fantastic local employer.

I took advantage of the price weakness with this stock and bought 2 parcels of shares, around $27 and the second one about $23. I discovered I can use averaging down as a strategy if the shares are bought through member direct(AUS super) as well. If WDS falls below $20 I will buy a third parcel of shares rather than dump the shares at a loss.

The dividend yield is really good for this stock, 8.4 %

DannyB0000 said:

I took advantage of the price weakness with this stock and bought 2 parcels of shares, around $27 and the second one about $23. I discovered I can use averaging down as a strategy if the shares are bought through member direct(AUS super) as well. If WDS falls below $20 I will buy a third parcel of shares rather than dump the shares at a loss.

The dividend yield is really good for this stock, 8.4 %

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For how long more can WDS sustain that level of divvies? I sold mine earlier this year so haven't really been following this stock.

gg

Same as banks…

Buy more.

Tyre Kicker said:

Same as banks…

Buy more.

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The big banks are still expensive, I would not be buying bank shares at current prices.

Agree re banks looking expensive now. But I bought mine when I thought they were cheap ie the past couple of years and a heap after the start of Covid. Laughable the number of brokers recommending to stay away from them at the same time when they were a steal. I couldn’t get enough of them. I mean Westpac was $20 less than 12 months ago - an absolute bargain. Posted this a number of times in the ‘Anyone buying banks yet’ thread.

So now, WDS is screaming ‘buy’ just as the banks were the past years. I’ll be hoping the sp keeps dropping as I’ll be buying more and more and more.

Crude Oil down another 3+% atm.

Might be a while till this gains in value....... Christmas rally?