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- 14 February 2005
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Is there anywhere in the world where gas/electricity "reforms" have done anything other than drive prices through the roof? It was one of Thatcher's ideas that much of the world copied even though it didn't work.By the way, I got some sad news on Friday. I am a lighting designer and Planet Lighting, an Australian company, is one of the few companies in the world that can blow large glass is closing their blowing plant. They are closing it town. Not because of wages, but because of gas prices. This has happened to me before. It appears to be cheaper to pay Germans of French to make aluminium poles than here in Australia because they get the aluminium cheaper. The same now is true of gas. Crazy. And sad for the NSW country town where they are the major employer.
We need new government thinking, and that means we have to stop electing lawyers into government. I am talking both sides here.
As a shareholder I'm interested. With recent developments, James Price Point, Leviathan, the Shell sell down, what's next for WPL?
I note that it's been mentioned in another thread that a play on Santos might be on the cards but an oiler expert I am not. Am happy to be getting those juicy div's of recent times though.
Anybody got a technical on this stock? I sold out after it went ex div but I'm looking to get back in early next year.
The most likely scenario is that WPL is ending it's Primary degree Triangle and $32 area is the best target for entry. This Triangle implies that a sizeable rally will develop after the bottom is reached.
Oil is sporting the last waves of the recent crash and a few year countertrend move to $80-90 area will be the most likely outcome. Probably this will help to lift stocks like WPL
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To be fair, there weren't too many predicting that the price of oil would fall significantly below the point at which fraccing makes a profit.
Assuming we're going to keep burning the stuff, and that seems fairly certain at least in the medium term, then there's really 3 plausible outcomes:
1. A surge in prices back to the point that makes new production viable at present costs.
2. The industry is willing to keep building new projects at a loss in order to maintain volumes and market share.
3. They cut back on drilling, crashing the price of drilling as such (which is a market in itself), and lowering costs for a smaller volume of new development.
My guess is that 3 is the most likely outcome and we'll see moderate price rises in the not too distant future.
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