Wayne Swan - Economic Pygmy

Garpal Gumnut · 21 December 2012

Today after years of blather by Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard, Penny Wong and Whatsisname Emerson, stating that a Budget Surplus was a done deal, we hear the truth.

There will be no Budget surplus.

Our country will be in deficit, making a loss on it's profits.

Peter Costello, and the Liberal/National Coalition left our country with a Huge Surplus when Swan and his mate Rudd came in to power.

This is serious.

The reason why?

ALP Waste on School Colas, Pink Batts, the Mining Tax and other economic obscenities.

Our youth cannot hope to experience home ownership or steady employment as a result.

The last time this happened was when the Whitlam government was in power.

I never thought I'd live to see a worse government, or a worse Treasurer.

gg

MrBurns · 21 December 2012

Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Simon Crean, Anthony Albanese, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet, Bill Shorten etc are barely literate, they are trained lap dogs of the dominatrix Giilard.

sptrawler · 21 December 2012

The real laugh is, GG, this is the same government that 5 years ago, was sending out cheques in the mail. Telling everyone to go and buy a plasma t.v, which now people can't afford to run.
I wonder if a lot of this government's ineptness lie in the fact nobody was competent enough to ask th right questions.
Lets be honest:
Personal tax rates are up.
Carbon tax has been introduced.
Resource tax has been introduced.
The retirement age has been lifted 67.
The disability pension has been made almost impossible to obtain.
The amount people over 50, can concessionaly put into super has halved.
They are appearing like a pay day loan shark, "here you go $900 in the mail and 20 years of misery paying it off"lol

sptrawler · 21 December 2012

MrBurns said:
Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Simon Crean, Anthony Albanese, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet, Bill Shorten etc are barely literate, they are trained lap dogs of the dominatrix Giilard.

They just have to hang in for a tax free, indexed, lifetime pension.

noco · 21 December 2012

MrBurns said:
Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Simon Crean, Anthony Albanese, Stephen Conroy, Greg Combet, Bill Shorten etc are barely literate, they are trained lap dogs of the dominatrix Giilard.

It could not have happened to a "nicer" lot of people.

nulla nulla · 21 December 2012

I congratulate you GG on your indomnitible spirit and tireless determination to open endless numbers of new threads devoid of any real substance apart from proffering yet another sensantional excuse to bash the labor party.

Damned if they do and damned if they don't, who cares lets just point the finger and launch into another thread.

Well done.

Garpal Gumnut · 21 December 2012

nulla nulla said:
I congratulate you GG on your indomnitible spirit and tireless determination to open endless numbers of new threads devoid of any real substance apart from proffering yet another sensantional excuse to bash the labor party.

Damned if they do and damned if they don't, who cares lets just point the finger and launch into another thread.

Well done.

No substance, eh.

A Deficit due to mismanagement and lack of governance over spending, that was Avoidable.
Higher interest rates for our young couples buying houses as a result.
Profligate decisions by this excuse for an economic management team.
Mining companies already under stress from lower prices enduring a Mining Tax if they make a profit.
A bizarre denial that their mismanagement would lead to a deficit, even by Albanese as recently as 4 days ago.

Whitlam at least had the excuse that he had his caucus behind him. This mob are on their own.

If the Libs did it I'd be just as angry.

But they wouldn't, or I would hope they never would.

gg.

bellenuit · 21 December 2012

I think the big problem now is that since they no longer need to deliver on their minuscule surplus of $1B or $2B and public focus is taken off it, we will see the current account deficit start to blow out considerably. First it will be a couple of billion, but each time there is a dip in revenue (remember they still are forecasting revenue from the mining tax) you will see another another few billion added on. Before we know it we will be $20B or $30B in the red for this year.

You even had calls today from The Greens and some others that since Labor are no longer committed to a surplus, some of the spending cuts they introduced to achieve that surplus should be abandoned. In other words, if you are going to be a little in the red for the year, you might as well be a lot in the red, as there will be no additional political fallout.

MrBurns · 21 December 2012

bellenuit said:
I think the big problem now is that since they no longer need to deliver on their minuscule surplus of $1B or $2B and public focus is taken off it, we will see the current account deficit start to blow out considerably. First it will be a couple of billion, but each time there is a dip in revenue (remember they still are forecasting revenue from the mining tax) you will see another another few billion added on. Before we know it we will be $20B or $30B in the red for this year.

You even had calls today from The Greens and some others that since Labor are no longer committed to a surplus, some of the spending cuts they introduced to achieve that surplus should be abandoned. In other words, if you are going to be a little in the red for the year, you might as well be a lot in the red, as there will be no additional political fallout.

Yes from here on it will be a vote buying exercise.

Garpal Gumnut · 21 December 2012

sptrawler said:
The real laugh is, GG, this is the same government that 5 years ago, was sending out cheques in the mail. Telling everyone to go and buy a plasma t.v, which now people can't afford to run.
I wonder if a lot of this government's ineptness lie in the fact nobody was competent enough to ask th right questions.
Lets be honest:
Personal tax rates are up.
Carbon tax has been introduced.
Resource tax has been introduced.
The retirement age has been lifted 67.
The disability pension has been made almost impossible to obtain.
The amount people over 50, can concessionaly put into super has halved.
They are appearing like a pay day loan shark, "here you go $900 in the mail and 20 years of misery paying it off"lol

Very true sptrawler.

gg

Some Dude · 22 December 2012

Who would have thought you were right GG. Compared to other major economies, the results are pygmy like.

Garpal Gumnut said:
... we hear the truth.

There will be no Budget surplus.

Our country will be in deficit, making a loss on it's profits.

Peter Costello, and the Liberal/National Coalition left our country with a Huge Surplus when Swan and his mate Rudd came in to power.

This is serious.

Chart 1.3: International comparison of budget balances, 2011‑2017

Chart 1.4: International comparison of net debt, 2011‑2017

Source.

sails · 22 December 2012

Some Dude said:
Who would have thought you were right GG. Compared to other major economies, the results are pygmy like...

Just because we are not as financially strapped as other countries doesn't mean that Australia should follow their footsteps down the same slippery slope.

Surely Australia should perform the best it could be?

I suppose you would also say a kid that gets a fail but didn't fail as badly as some of his mates has done well.

That is stupid thinking...

IFocus · 22 December 2012

Some Dude said:
Who would have thought you were right GG. Compared to other major economies, the results are pygmy like.

Chart 1.3: International comparison of budget balances, 2011‑2017

View attachment 50066

Chart 1.4: International comparison of net debt, 2011‑2017

View attachment 50067

Source.

The mob here didn't get the last set of charts, personally I think its to do with the Chinese made right only looking eye glasses the old Australian made ones had a bit better peripheral vision.

I am fairly certain of this because the younger generation who do not need glasses don't seem to have the same affliction.

BTW I don't wear glasses yet

In these political threads of vast fact vacuum you have to under stand that the rest of the worlds economic impact has absolutely no affect in the Australian conservative bubble world.

I doubt any here will pick that minor point up.

2013/14 are going to get tougher IMHO

The new Japanese PM gets his way and gets the BOJ to really print cash.

US print more cash

Europe to stagger on de-leveraging and guess what print more cash (Spain blows up any way then the world turns to look at France and its banks)

China to compete will drop its currency valve one way or another.

All means a very strong AUD = great holidays but less jobs

Will really need Hockeys magic calculator to get through all that I think......with a surplus.

prawn_86 · 22 December 2012

Alternatively we could just strat printing cash to weaken our dollar. All the other cool kids are doing it with no care, so why should we be penalised for having low debt/no printing?

While i dont agree with doing it from a financial viewpoint, it is the way the game is being played these days and to try and make some sort stand which weakens the economy/jobs is like a football team deciding they will play with no interchange

sptrawler · 22 December 2012

Maybe look at this chart to get a realistic performance appraisal.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

That was all accomplished with a booming mining industry.LOL

Garpal Gumnut · 22 December 2012

Some Dude said:
Who would have thought you were right GG. Compared to other major economies, the results are pygmy like.

Chart 1.3: International comparison of budget balances, 2011‑2017

View attachment 50066

Chart 1.4: International comparison of net debt, 2011‑2017

View attachment 50067

Source.

I am right Dude. You conveniently omitted the preamble and the source of these graphs which are predictive, i.e. modelling.

Similar to Weather / Warmist graphs, and we all know how accurate they are.

The graphs came from Wayne Swan, a discredited fellow soon to lose his job.

I will post the preamble below which clearly states the graph is predicted on an Australian Budget Surplus this year.

The other elements on the graph are predictive from the other countries.

Lucky you didn't buy stock in 2006-7 on their predications.

Fiscal outlook
The expected underlying cash surplus for 2012‑13 is $1.1 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP), increasing to $2.2 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2013‑14.

The expected surplus in 2012‑13 is smaller than expected at Budget, driven in large part by the weaker global outlook and the consequent substantial write‑down in tax receipts. Over the five years since the onset of the GFC there has been a substantial write‑down in tax receipts totalling almost $160 billion.

Total tax receipts have been revised down by around $4 billion in 2012‑13 in large part because of weaker non‑rural commodity prices. This was offset in part by non-tax receipts and payments variations of around $2 billion.

The Government has made a number of savings decisions in response to the write‑down in tax receipts across the forward estimates. In total, savings of $16.4 billion have been made in 2012‑13 and across the forward estimates, with the net budget impact of all policy decisions improving the budget bottom line by $10.5 billion. The savings decisions made by the Government will help to leave Australia in a substantially stronger fiscal position than any of the major advanced economies.

Australia will return the budget to surplus ahead of the major advanced economies (Chart 1.3). The average net debt position of the major advanced economies is projected to peak at 95 per cent of GDP in 2016, almost 10 times higher than the expected peak in Australia's net debt of 10.0 per cent of GDP in 2011‑12 (Chart 1.4).

gg

Some Dude · 22 December 2012

IFocus said:
In these political threads of vast fact vacuum you have to under stand that the rest of the worlds economic impact has absolutely no affect in the Australian conservative bubble world.

I doubt any here will pick that minor point up.

Given that most of the opinions expressed in these threads can be dismissed with the same level of data that they are supported by, I figure any discussion that motivates people to include data will move those discussions away from the fact vacuums.

Some Dude · 22 December 2012

Garpal Gumnut said:
I will post the preamble below which clearly states the graph is predicted on an Australian Budget Surplus this year.

So state your predictions with data, or the ones you formulate your opinions from, and we will assess those comparatively in the years to come.

sptrawler · 22 December 2012

Like you say, GG you can't be judged on projected performance, only on historical and past performance.

As is shown in the debt/gdp graph I posted, Labor are on a constant worsening trend. Hard to BS that.

Some Dude · 22 December 2012

sptrawler said:
Maybe look at this chart to get a realistic performance appraisal.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

That was all accomplished with a booming mining industry.LOL

How does it compare to other economies through the same timeline?

Wayne Swan - Economic Pygmy

Garpal Gumnut

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MrBurns

sptrawler

sptrawler

noco

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

Garpal Gumnut

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bellenuit

MrBurns

Garpal Gumnut

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Some Dude

sails

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah

prawn_86

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sptrawler

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Some Dude

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