War threat in Ukraine

[philliplee]

Well-pointed? more precisely: military industrial complex, oil/gas companies and wall st

 

[Craton]

Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.

Just another of his growing number of lies, nothing more than a poker bluff.

The West's/Europe's problem is the heavy reliance on Russia's energy. If NATO moves into Ukraine, guess who's gonna turn the tap off long before any launch button is pushed.

Make no mistake, any power with nuclear capability knows that even limited nuke use in any armed conflict will have dire consequences. Putin may be a heartless evil bugger but he's not that dumb.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

??? You must be very. very subtle there GG. What you said was

The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time.
This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939.
I would agree with the Europeans that NATO have no other option than to take the fight up to Russia and liberate Donbas and Crimea as well for Ukraine.
Now is the perfect time with Russian forces in disarray.

As I read it
1) You see NATO having a (military) solution to Putins hegemony.
2) You think NATO should send in sufficient military power to throw the Russian Army out of Donbas and Crimea

I think Russia would view that action as an existential threat and go nuclear. M.A.D. scenario

* M.A.D. Mutually Assured Destruction. The current nuclear stance of Russia and the West. If a nuclear war starts everyone goes up in smoke.

Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.

In my original post above I suggested that now is the time for the NATO allies to enter Ukraine and push the fascist forces of Russia back to their original borders beyond Crimea and Donbas.

Any less outcome will be a victory for Putin.

Nuclear war is a possibility not only in Ukraine and the adjacent Russian republics but also in Korea, Taiwan, and the Middle East to name but a few. It is a daily risk, only brought to our attention by some prescient commentators and a gutter press out to sell click space on their masthead sites.

It is my belief that we are in a situation similar to that in 1938-1939 where Hitler was allowed enter Czechoslovakia to begin his totalitarian destruction of European minority groups driven by a hegemonous ideology. Putin is of a similar ilk, he even has his own Godbotherer the Archwhatever Kirril who with his Rolex watch has anointed this war as being a just war for Russia.

Should Putin not be stopped now, when he is at his weakest, he will slowly move West next on to adjacent republics to Ukraine on the pretext of protecting his new borders and liberating "minorities".

I have experienced the destruction of war. It is not nice to put it mildly. You see it daily on TV, but what you don't experience is the sense of destruction, the human loss and suffering, and the pervasive smell of smoke and sh*t.

Sometimes force needs to be met with force.

Leave Russia to expand today and in one, two or three years, it will expand further.

gg

 

[gartley]

An interesting opinion from the other side:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258861.shtml

 

[rederob]

An interesting opinion from the other side:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258861.shtml

About the only part the Russian author got wrong was the role of the Azov battalion.
The false spectre of Nazism used by Russia is somewhat equal to Dutton's claims of Chinese aggression. In other words, it does not take a lot for a nation to spin an idea that "sounds" credible but has no real world basis when viewed objectively.

Ukraine stands as a bulwark against Russian expansion, and NATO - the US in particular - have done their very best to not support it. Instead it's being being played as a sacrificial pawn in a chess game where the the defenders have to keep paying the attackers (for oil/gas) or their position is weakened. The battlefield in this case is subservient to money, and the pretext of sanctions as a means of defense is a bluff that Putin has seen through while continuing to fill his coffers. So what if some Russians suffer ... did Stalin ever care! Putin's popularity in Russia is still on the rise as he insists his suppression of Nazism is necessary.

 

[JohnDe]

I AM WRITING this essay as the world has woken up to the horrific scenes from Irpin and Bucha, suburbs of Kyiv in Ukraine. We see pictures of mass graves and civilians murdered by Russian troops. These photos remind Estonians of the killings by the Soviet regime and the NKVD, its law-enforcement ministry. Its machine of state terror murdered civilians in exactly the same way. Deportations and filtration camps take me and every other Estonian family back to painful memories of repression under Soviet occupation and of Gulag prison camps.

Placing civilians at the frontline is a Russian war tactic. The proof? There are more civilian victims than there are military casualties—especially if you consider that it’s not accidental that a quarter of Ukraine’s population has been forced to flee from their homes or that Russia has engineered humanitarian catastrophes in cities such as Mariupol. Targeting civilians is a war crime according to international law. Ukraine is not a battlefield; it’s a crime scene. So too were Rwanda and Srebrenica.

The perpetrators of these atrocities must be brought to justice. The free world should lend its full support—both political and practical—to the investigation launched last month by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court into war crimes and crimes against humanity. These crimes do not expire and so neither should the investigation. We still know about only a fraction of the atrocities that Russian troops have committed; the true scale of the Kremlin’s brutality is yet to be seen.

As a mother, it hurts my soul to see how thousands are losing their lives in Ukraine. The Kremlin is sending its youth to die and is slaughtering innocent people and shelling their homes en masse. And what for? For the sake of Vladimir Putin’s imperialist ambition. By now it has become abundantly clear that although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did.

The suffering and devastation in Ukraine is far from over as Mr Putin's strategic aims have not changed. Negotiations at gunpoint offer no magic formula for avoiding another war and peace at any price does not mean that atrocities will end. Here I am speaking from the experience of my own country. For Estonia and many others after the second world war, peace meant the beginning of the Soviet occupation with its huge human cost. It brought renewed suffering through mass killings, repressions, mass deportations and other crimes against humanity.

Estonia’s experience reminds us that our first focus today must be on how to help Ukraine free itself from occupying forces, restore its territorial integrity and stop Russian aggression. I cannot help but admire the brave fight Volodymyr Zelensky is leading and the extremely difficult choices he faces.

All of the warning signs were there in recent decades: imperial nostalgia, the narrative of Russian victimhood and Mr Putin’s wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Donbas and Crimea. We heard statements that Ukraine—which has a population of 44m and is the third-largest country by territory in Europe (after Russia and Turkey)—had no right to exist. In December Russia gave ultimatums to NATO to limit its deployment of troops and weapons and in effect to reverse the enlargement of its membership so as to take it back to its size in 1997.

The past three of Mr Putin’s wars illustrate why he must not win this one and why Moscow cannot be allowed to pretend that it has gained anything in the process. We have let Mr Putin get away with this aggression several times before. We can’t let him get away with it again now. Were that to happen, his appetite would only grow, and more atrocities and more human suffering would follow.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has made it once again crystal-clear why countries in central and eastern Europe, after breaking free from Soviet occupation, quickly asked to join NATO. The alliance doesn’t exist to threaten Russia: it is for defence. It exists to keep tens of millions from being enslaved and slaughtered by dictators. And it is the actions of the Soviet Union, and later Russia, that explain why so many countries wanted to join NATO. Those blaming it for “expansion” and “escalation” succumb to the very imperial ideology and language pursued by the Kremlin. These run counter to the principles of state sovereignty and democracy.

We are at an era-defining moment and the decisions we make now will stick with us for decades. The war touches the European Union’s own borders. Our response and support to Ukraine will determine if lasting peace is possible on our continent. I believe the steps we need to take should come under the label “smart containment”.

First, military aid to Ukraine must be our top priority. This means, among other things, sending weapons and materiel that the Ukrainians need and have requested. They need help not only to better protect their skies, but also to take back their cities and to free people from Russian occupation and repression. The brave people of Ukraine have not yet tired and so neither can we. There is a lot more we should do and we must commit ourselves to it for years to come.

Second, we must disarm the Kremlin and its war machine financially. Unless we quickly dry up its revenues, Russia will be able to continue its aggression and slaughter. Hydrocarbons were a major source of Russian state budget revenue (more than 40%) last year. This year they are rapidly turning into the biggest source because of increased demand and increasing prices. If the free world wants to stop financing Mr Putin”'s war, our focus must be on drying up these revenues as soon as possible. If we are not ready to stop the purchases of hydrocarbons all at once, we should set up a special third-party escrow account to reserve part of the money paid for Russian oil and gas. This would rapidly diminish the income received by the Kremlin. It would send a clear signal to Mr Putin: this war will cost Russia a fortune. Not only will Russia pay for every bullet its army shoots, but it will also pay for every bridge destroyed and house shelled in Ukraine. The Kremlin must pay its due for the damage caused.

Third, NATO must demonstrate that it is determined, able and ready to defend every inch of its territory and, if need be, to use force. Sometimes the best way to achieve peace is to be willing to use military strength.

Life at the frontline of the free world means we in Estonia must do a lot more ourselves for our own defence. My government has decided to significantly increase our own contribution: our defence expenditure next year will be more than NATO’s target of 2% of GDP. We will bring it up to 2.5% of GDP.

I keep getting asked whether I think Estonia will be the next country to be invaded by Russia. We should be doing everything to make sure that no country will be next. If we fail here, then the question will become whether NATO is next. It is the most successful defence alliance ever and has never been militarily invaded in its history. There is a clear reason for that: its deterrence has worked. To keep it thus we need to make the effort to adapt our military posture adequately.

We need a long-term policy shift in NATO’s defence posture. This means more combat-ready troops stationed permanently in the Baltic States, supported by long-range artillery, air defence and other enabling capabilities. It would also mean more NATO fighters in our skies and more ships in the Baltic Sea. The work is under way and final decisions will be made at the NATO summit in Madrid in June.

Ukraine is not the victim of a one-time miscalculation by a madman. We are witnessing a long-planned campaign by the Kremlin to exert control over neighbouring countries by brute force, no matter the human cost. We need strategic patience and long-term persistence with policies to halt this aggression and to prevent new outbursts of it.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is an attack against humanity and its consequences will be global. It takes courage, moral clarity and action to stand up against it and stop it. We have promised “never again”. We must act now if we really want this to be the last time. Indifference is the mother of all crimes.

_______________

Kaja Kallas is the prime minister of Estonia.

Kaja Kallas on the atrocities in Ukraine

Estonia’s prime minister argues that although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did

www.economist.com

 

[Stockbailx]

Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.

The facts in life are simply live and live! @Garpal Gumnut said Putins a player. I've got a lot more respect for the Ukrainian people and way of life and they deserve better. Sit there and talk about it why Ukraine suffer, is not applicable in my book.
The longer you let Putin play his game of chaos, the worst the nuclear threat becomes as he builds confidence. Got to nip that theory of nukes in the bud, and take him down. Bidens ( cowardness ) influence doesn't help either...You could almost say its to late, for human rights. Put Putin down and liberate Ukraine. And the free world for that matter...
Its a bit edgy but have a war based on disabling the nuclear thread is better then no war at all... who's cooking what, get out of the kitchen Putin...Biden get your finger off the button your not getting any. Or is it the other way around..Liberate Ukraine!

 

[moXJO]

I am seeing more indicators of a military solution being used.
Europe is sending heavier weapons.
Talking points/propaganda in media are used to stoke hatred of all Russians or the west (and its working).
Support is becoming more overt.


I'm sure Patton wanted to roll through Russia after Germany because "The Russians would eventually become a problem".
I'm wondering if they are thinking of rolling through China after Russia before they become a larger problem.

 

[gartley]

I don't know who is worse, a geriatric as the leader of the free world or Putin....
"I was in the foothills of the Himalayas with Xi Jinping, traveling with him, that's when I traveled 17,000 miles when I was Vice President. I don't know that for a fact."
View attachment BIDEN_ _I was in the the foothills of the Himalaya (1).mp4

 

[gartley]

Europe is sending heavier weapons.

Recently I saw pictures of Soviet era heavy weapons such as T72 tanks being transported by train from Eastern European countries. This suggests theat Ukranian Army probably has lost a lot of armour.
My gut feeling is that Scomo's Bushmasters (if they ever make it there) will are destined to be sold on the Russian scrap metal market.....

 

[JohnDe]

I don't know who is worse, a geriatric as the leader of the free world or Putin....

Seriously?

Regardless of what The US president says, he is not a war mongering psychopath.

Putin will now go down in history as a war criminal, a mad man, a liar, a fraud, a murder, an insane leader of a blind nation, and the leader that brought his own country to ruin.

 

[Knobby22]

I think it's time for a diplomatic solution backed by the threat of NATO entering more directly in the war if a compromise isn't reached.

 

[gartley]

Seriously?

Regardless of what The US president says, he is not a war mongering psychopath.

That he isn't...... as he can't even string a sentence together. Don't fear him, fear psychopaths pulling his strings..
His predecessors since 2000 different story!!!
The lies and deception leading up to the second invasion of Iraq as well as deaths of 200,000 ppl as a result. The bombing by NATO in Sarajevo, Afghanistan.....

 

[Stockbailx]

I think it's time for a diplomatic solution backed by the threat of NATO entering more directly in the war if a compromise isn't reached.

Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...

 

[Craton]

Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...

NATO structure:

 

[moXJO]

If LePen clinches it in France, things may go very different for nato

 

[Stockbailx]

NATO structure:

Bigger then Ben Her. Take Russia down, so the free world can live...Liberate Ukraine!

 

[moXJO]

Bigger then Ben Her. Take Russia down, so the free world can live...Liberate Ukraine!

I'm sure a report showed that Brits and NATO allies without the US would struggle. Something about lack of long range and ammunitions.

 

[gartley]

The truly terrifying reality about the Ukraine war is the certainty of mass world starvation and the collapse/disintegration of many countries as food supplies rapidly dwindle.

Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of the worlds grain. And there is no way these supplies or grain plantings will happen in a war zone.

So I wonder exactly what is happening around the world to create new foods to tackle the critical problems already evident.

Bombing the world’s breadbasket​

View attachment 140125
Wheat fields in midsummer (August) in Ukraine, Oblast Lviv © Raimond Spekking / CC BY-SA 4.0 (via Wikimedia Commons)
For the past month, the world has watched in horror as civilians suffer and die in Ukraine. They are being shelled in their homes, sheltering in freezing basements, and fleeing under fire. Yet even as we try to support Ukrainians and end the war, we cannot forget the vulnerable elsewhere. The Russian invasion is causing pain far beyond Ukraine’s borders. A global hunger catastrophe is looming.

I think together they account for approximately 15% of the worlds wheat supplies. It's a big hit, especially in the poorer not so developed countries. On top of this Russia also supplies most of the worlds fertilizer so difficult times coming unless other countries step up to fill the void....

 

[Knobby22]

Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...

Germany and Austria are the worst. They are limiting sanctions and just stop any action. That's the trouble with having too many countries in an organisation.

Similarly the UN can't act as China has a casting vote.

I don't see how the USA can go straight into an European war on its own but maybe there is a way. Do you think Biden should start using missiles?