VBA - Virgin Blue Holdings

[Hedders]

oh boy...VBA has tanked today. Lower (and very vague) net profit forecast now somewhere between $20-$40 mil compared to $80 previous. This will leave punters guessing if it's going to be a 75% reduction in profit or 50%. No surprise that the share price is off some 25% today. Should have sold these suckers at 80c a few months back

Where to from here??

 

[frankie_boy]

Where to?

As long as there are no more volcanos.. Riots in Thailand.. terrorist threats...planes falling out of the sky...things should look better..

 

[malachii]

This is aviation - it's not what you can see going wrong that will hurt - it's the thing you cant see. Nobody expected a SARS event or a 9/11 or a ....... there are a million and one different things even without considering the long term increase in fuel and the amalgamation of huge airlines into even bigger ones. Aviation is a dangerous place to invest at the best of times. I dont know of anyone (someone will correct me I suppose) that has made big money in aviation in the last 40 years or so - or longer. Even Branson doesn't make money off running an airline. He just uses his brand (virgin) to establish it and then pulls his money out. VBA he established with $20mil (I think) and pulled out well over $100 mil (again I think) during the initial float. Other than losing a bit of face even if VBA went broke - he made his money years ago plus some.

Having said that - VBA does have a new CEO and an ex QF one at that. He will be bringing forward every bad news item he can lay his hands on so he can blame previous managment and give himself a good headstart.

malachii

PS - I own no shares in VBA but I do hold some in QF due to having been given them as a "bonus" while working for QF. I would sell them if I could but unfortunately I'm not allowed!

 

[stefan_invester]

hmm
i Think this is abseloutly RADICOULIS what has happend with VBA today
first of all, why have so many people reacted so badly to this and started selling?
its not like VBA is goin broke like elders
and second, it didnt really have to fall this much, like seriously, id could have fallen back to about 0.35. but ok whatever.
oh well i guess thats life aye
some people are gonna get REALLY rich because of what happend today i bet..... :disgust::disgust::disgust:

 

[malachii]

stefan_investor,

Can you say why you think it is ridiculous. Just to make broad statements doesn't give us much to go on. I have to say that I think the market reacted about right with the vagueness of the statement and also the fact that the industry is the way it is. Particularly at the moment - any hints of problems and the market will dump the stock as quick as they can. There is too much volatility about to get caught out.

malachii

 

[oldblue]

Here's a commentator's take on VBA.

Must say I agree with malachii. Airlines' stock can be successfully traded, sometimes, but make lousy long term investments.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-month-a-shocker/story-e6frg9if-1225872728468

 

[stefan_invester]

im just a very mad investor at the moment
because i have been watching VBA very closely for the last few months
and it has been doing wonderfully, and when i finally decide to buy it,
it fully tanks, so its just a very bad thing for me.

But i have also heard people saying that people have overreacted to the message, and the selloff was over reacted.
Its not like VBA is going broke, they are making money, that is what i am finding so annoying.

hopefully the next few days will see some value come back.

 

[Hedders]

im just a very mad investor at the moment
because i have been watching VBA very closely for the last few months
and it has been doing wonderfully, and when i finally decide to buy it,
it fully tanks, so its just a very bad thing for me.

But i have also heard people saying that people have overreacted to the message, and the selloff was over reacted.
Its not like VBA is going broke, they are making money, that is what i am finding so annoying.

hopefully the next few days will see some value come back.

I'm a frustrated investor too Stefan, but sadly the market has spoken and I think it will take some time for investors to forgive 2 successive profit downgrades in one month. VBA may recover a little if it delivers a profit closer to the $40 mill mark. Effeciencies need to be found somehow as well, and finally VBA needs to grow its corporate market as a priority. It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday, after investors have had time to take in the slaughter on Friday!

 

[Poppypop]

I've been trading since october 2008 and virgin blue is a winner for me. I had 20,000 shares @ 33c last year when they announced the capital raising @ 20c. I bought a further 100,000 shares @ 20c and sold them when they opened on the market @ 36c. I gave up trading vba after they climbed higher than 52 as I didn't believe they were worth more than 50c at that time. I was surprised to see them go all the way to 80c and then decided to start buying again at 61.5 cents, and 46.5c, then they plummeted to 31c I doubled my shares. Now I have 40,000 shares with an average price of 38.5c. I will be buying 10,000 shares for every cent they drop under 31 as I believe they will be up around the 50 cent mark within the next 12 months.

 

[stefan_invester]

yes, i am wondering
what VBA will do on monday, very interesting
we had a bad lead from the over seas market in the US with a heavy sell off,
which may be bad news for VBA holders, but on the other hand, this does look like an EXCELLENT time to stack up on very cheap shares .
so just 24 more hours...

 

[Hedders]

VBA is still looking pretty sick- down another 6% on Wednesday. Sadly I can see this one sliding down for a while yet. Anyone game enough to pick the bottom?

 

[oldblue]

VBA is still looking pretty sick- down another 6% on Wednesday. Sadly I can see this one sliding down for a while yet. Anyone game enough to pick the bottom?

I wouldn't even try to pick the bottom.

Wait for the inevitable (?) rise. Either it will or it won't

 

[jonnycage]

have finally dipped into this one at 30 cents, maybe some short term
gain to come ? maybe not lol

j c

 

[Poppypop]

I have been stacking up around the 30 mark too. i know when it rises it rises quick. 30 cents for an airline as big as virgin blue is just ridiculously cheap in my opinion. I do expect some considerable rises before the end of the year with this stock or ill pull out and put it into something else.

 

[oldblue]

I don't know about VBA being ridiculously cheap at 30c. There's over 2.2 billion shares on issue and even at 30c the M/Cap is almost $700m.

While the SP seems to have bottomed out at current levels I think I'll wait to see some real strength.

 

[jonnycage]

i keep adding a few around the 31cent mark, am looking for some upside, just not yet ... anyone else adding ?


j c

 

[Poppypop]

i keep adding a few around the 31cent mark, am looking for some upside, just not yet ... anyone else adding ?


j c

lol....i already hold a fair bit of VBA which i bought at the 31.5-32 mark but keep missing the 31 cent price because of so many other lower risk, good buys out there, with nice dividends coming up in August ie: QBE, Woolies (WOW) and even Telstra (TLS). Hopefully, VBA will close at 31c today, I will buy some more if i have some money left to trade with. It could dramatically rise or sink (depending on news) at any given day now hence why im hesitating at the 31.5 cent mark.

 

[yap]

VBA has made it back to the July levels after today's announcement of a $21m profit..

 

[Poppypop]

The drought has finally broken YAY. I read a 34m profit after todays announcements after close of market. I bought a **** load of this stock at 31 cents with a sell at 62cents. 40% of my portfolio is Virgin Blue atm. Im hoping to double my money within the next 6 months.

 

[ksetiady]

The drought has finally broken YAY. I read a 34m profit after todays announcements after close of market. I bought a **** load of this stock at 31 cents with a sell at 62cents. 40% of my portfolio is Virgin Blue atm. Im hoping to double my money within the next 6 months.

go fly high VB ................... with JB on the board, it will back to 80cents by dec