VBA - Virgin Blue Holdings

[skc]

With the recent change from Virgin Blue --> Virgin Australia
and the midst of the ever impending oil price bubble collapsing related to (Osama's death , Eventual resolution in Saudi) and the fact that the australian dollar will be rather static for the moment,

Isn't Virgin blue an ideal candidate to hold for the short term (6months)?
The fact that the company has worked on their name issue rather then other important things must be a sign of undergoing change in the company.

I hold and this is the logic i used, could anyone give me insight on where abouts my naiveness ?

Could you explain the logic of the name change bit again? Why is changing name "a sign of undergoing change in the company"?

And what evidence do you plan to use to prove whether you are right or wrong? Revenue? Oil price? AUD? Passenger carried? Another name change?

 

[frankie_boy]

Click me for better news for Virgin

 

[Misterlazy]

Surprised no discussion in threads about VBA? boosted bit under 10% today, and approx 20% in total over the last few days, taking advantage of tiger airways inevitable demise.

Looks like the future is becoming brighter for all VBA holders

 

[Misterlazy]

Could you explain the logic of the name change bit again? Why is changing name "a sign of undergoing change in the company"?

And what evidence do you plan to use to prove whether you are right or wrong? Revenue? Oil price? AUD? Passenger carried? Another name change?

I guess i'm more of a speculator then a FA, the change of name, change of uniform, change of slogan, added advertisements and other changes such as changes to the virgin lounge is all part of a plan to become a stronger force in the australian airline market. VBA has been around for a while and has been very quiet on the market for the past year or so. They haven't been hit as hard as QAN by surging fuel prices and tickets have been compared to be cheaper on Virgin Australia. I can only assume that this is a form of good hedging, although i'm unclear of the company's operations.

Only now is it starting to shine off the fact Tiger airways has been barred from skies for a month.

In comparison QAN has only risen 8% compared to VBA's 20% upon news of Tiger airways suspension.

Discuss

 

[robusta]

I guess i'm more of a speculator then a FA, the change of name, change of uniform, change of slogan, added advertisements and other changes such as changes to the virgin lounge is all part of a plan to become a stronger force in the australian airline market. VBA has been around for a while and has been very quiet on the market for the past year or so. They haven't been hit as hard as QAN by surging fuel prices and tickets have been compared to be cheaper on Virgin Australia. I can only assume that this is a form of good hedging, although i'm unclear of the company's operations.

Only now is it starting to shine off the fact Tiger airways has been barred from skies for a month.

In comparison QAN has only risen 8% compared to VBA's 20% upon news of Tiger airways suspension.

Discuss

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world.

 

[Misterlazy]

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world.

Sounds like your speculating as much as me. Have you considered that the reason why airlines have been declining in the past 10 years or so is because newer airlines are making the airline industry hard to survive in? Subsequently we have all heard the "airline industry is one of the hardest industries to thrive in". On the other hand there will be a point where the industry is saturated (hopefully now) where no newer airlines can really enter the market. And because of the saturation consolidation/partnerships are being formed (virgin-singapore etc). It really isn't that bad of an industry to be entering now. Not to mention the increase in people flying more frequently in the future and possibilities of new technology with regards to flying.

Your argument is similar a cut out of a real estate cycle (interest rates have been rising for x years house prices slowly declining "i would not invest any money into real estate look @their x year graph" whilst others will buy up where there is value and eventually create a buyers market.

 

[bob99]

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world.

It’s all about hope, thank god I got out of these back in March 2010 (71cents) after picking up a whopper of a parcel at 14cents.

As soon as Tiger comes back - which I am sure they will - god knows why though, yet when they do, VBA will be dropped again as those who are simply trading them will make some cash from the recent low of 26cents.

Wouldn’t be holding out much hope for this stock. Just my opinion, would take it as advice - ha!

 

[robusta]

Sounds like your speculating as much as me. Have you considered that the reason why airlines have been declining in the past 10 years or so is because newer airlines are making the airline industry hard to survive in? Subsequently we have all heard the "airline industry is one of the hardest industries to thrive in". On the other hand there will be a point where the industry is saturated (hopefully now) where no newer airlines can really enter the market. And because of the saturation consolidation/partnerships are being formed (virgin-singapore etc). It really isn't that bad of an industry to be entering now. Not to mention the increase in people flying more frequently in the future and possibilities of new technology with regards to flying:

Each to their own, I just look at the cash flow, they operate on paper thin margins, have rising costs and no competitive advantage.

When I travel I just look for the cheapest fare (with the exception of Tiger)

People have been flying more frequently in the past, these are still crap businesses IMO.

Your argument is similar a cut out of a real estate cycle (interest rates have been rising for x years house prices slowly declining "i would not invest any money into real estate look @their x year graph" whilst others will buy up where there is value and eventually create a buyers market.

I think Richard Branson said it best, “The easiest way to become a millionaire is to start off a billionaire and go into the airline business,”

Read more: The slot machine - New Europe http://www.neurope.eu/articles/105271.php#ixzz1RZFjYCpY

Read this article from last year and then think about how Qantas has gone in the last 11 months

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982009.htm?site=thedrum

 

[Misterlazy]

Read this article from last year and then think about how Qantas has gone in the last 11 months

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982009.htm?site=thedrum

Appreciate the explanation rather then your one quick sentence with regards to how QAN has done in the last 11 months, i noticed both QAN and VBA rocketed up during late AUG/SEP 2010, i hadn't kept an eye on airlines during that time, anyone here know what was the cause of that increase in share price over such a short time?

 

[Misterlazy]

It’s all about hope, thank god I got out of these back in March 2010 (71cents) after picking up a whopper of a parcel at 14cents.

As soon as Tiger comes back - which I am sure they will - god knows why though, yet when they do, VBA will be dropped again as those who are simply trading them will make some cash from the recent low of 26cents.

Wouldn’t be holding out much hope for this stock. Just my opinion, would take it as advice - ha!

Thats the thing that dazzles my mind, if the airlines is such a horrendous industry why would Tiger not just pull out of the market. I honestly feel like we are missing something. I mean surely we can all stand on the sidelines point fingers and laugh at the so called "stupidity" of Tiger airways(permanently damaged reputation) reentering the market after losing approx $18mill in earnings in July already. Obviously all VBA holders or QAN holders are praying that Tiger fails hard. But does the board of directors at Tiger know something about the profitability in Australian airlines that we don't know?

 

[tollbridge]

Thats the thing that dazzles my mind, if the airlines is such a horrendous industry why would Tiger not just pull out of the market. I honestly feel like we are missing something. I mean surely we can all stand on the sidelines point fingers and laugh at the so called "stupidity" of Tiger airways(permanently damaged reputation) reentering the market after losing approx $18mill in earnings in July already. Obviously all VBA holders or QAN holders are praying that Tiger fails hard. But does the board of directors at Tiger know something about the profitability in Australian airlines that we don't know?

Excellent point! I've never really understood Tiger's strategy - it seemed like a disaster from the beginning with regards to Sydney being off limits for the first few years (or months, I can't remember). Their advertising is next to nothing, their reputation is horrible, they're constantly receiving negative press - yet we hear nothing from anybody. It all sounds dodgy as hell - but maybe there is something around the corner? Who knows - it reminds me of "Blue Star Airlines" :

I've kept VBA in my watch-list since 2007 and always use it as my "hot tip" whenever I'm asked just for a laugh. It always moves - just never in the direction I expect it to

 

[frankie_boy]

Tiger is back, and now talk of more domestic aviators coming to the fray...

That belt gets tighter and tighter..

 

[Smurf1976]

Excellent point! I've never really understood Tiger's strategy - it seemed like a disaster from the beginning with regards to Sydney being off limits for the first few years (or months, I can't remember). Their advertising is next to nothing, their reputation is horrible, they're constantly receiving negative press - yet we hear nothing from anybody. It all sounds dodgy as hell

I know of one company that does quite a bit of business travel. Employees are specifically prohibited from booking flights with Tiger without senior management approval, and such approval will only be granted under exceptional circumstances where no other means of transport (eg bus, train, another airline, drive there) is practical.

Reasons for this policy relate to (1) business disruption caused by the unreliability of Tiger services and (2) perceived legal liability if employees are allowed to fly Tiger and a plane falls out of the sky.

There are no restrictions on employess of that company using any other airline in Australia or indeed any other form of public transport. Says it all about Tiger's reputation really...

As for Virgin, why mess about with Tiger / Jetstar / Qantas when Virgin don't seem to have anywhere near as many problems and their fares are comparable. It's a bit of a no brainer isn't it?

 

[FreshTrader]

Anyone else expecting these stocks to go up as a result of Qantas' proposed strike on Tuesday (20th) ??

 

[skc]

Anyone else expecting these stocks to go up as a result of Qantas' proposed strike on Tuesday (20th) ??

If everyone sees it it would have gone up already. Plus how much benefit can a short disruption actually help VBA's bottom line?

Look at the VBA price when Tiger was grounded... it was a surprise so the price moved up quickly, but how long did that move last?

 

[FreshTrader]

Damn, should have trusted my instincts, VBA stocks closed at 29c today after getting to a low of 0.275, should have jumped on board then. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

 

[FreshTrader]

"AIZ: Air New Zealand Increases Interest in Virgin Australia"
Source: CommSec Website

They claim this is market sensitive, what does this mean for the share price? Will it go up or down as a result? Background Info: Air New Zealand acquired approx an additional 110,000,000 shares. Will this result in a positive or negative effect on the share price? Cheers. :aus:

 

[oldblue]

It strengthens the alliance between VBA and Air NZ and should be positive for both stocks.Not a huge deal but certainly not a negative for VBA.

 

[Boggo]

It strengthens the alliance between VBA and Air NZ and should be positive for both stocks.Not a huge deal but certainly not a negative for VBA.

And meanwhile at camp Qantas the smoke and mirrors continue.
It won't be long until you see a swap of the current QAN and VBA share prices.

Borghetti is inching forward at a nice steady rate while on the opposition side...
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/flying-into-a-storm/story-e6frg14l-1226144780808

 

[FreshTrader]

And meanwhile at camp Qantas the smoke and mirrors continue.
It won't be long until you see a swap of the current QAN and VBA share prices.

Borghetti is inching forward at a nice steady rate while on the opposition side...
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/flying-into-a-storm/story-e6frg14l-1226144780808

How long is "it won't be long"? I currently hold a decent amount of Virgin Shares and as such am obviously highly interested in its movement. When do you predict the decision of the approval of the Singapore partnership will be announced?