Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

Jump to new
Hi All, Moit, AB, Buckfont et al. Yes I have to agree with you all that its very disappointing with no news yet re the status of the project. I have refrained from posting only because I have got no news to add and I didn't want to show my frustrations as well, but we are one on the lack of information by the company.

Obviously we are all in the dark at the moment, and I presume that the project can't have a serious problem as if it did then it would have to be reported to the ASX already. And I can't see there being anything significant knowing all the things that might be holding up the process. Definitely the weather can't be the issue, although maybe the historic low grade stockpile might not have the amount of gold that was expected, notwithstanding that they did drill it a number of years ago themselves (I think it was about 2004) and the grade estimated stands at 1.3 g/t. In an overall context the low grade historic resource is an insignificant resource compared with the open pit and underground resources.

I remain confident that whatever the hiccup is that the project will deliver, but for sure RED has not done itself any favours by failing to provide an update. RED seems to continue to fail to deliver in what would have to be one of the easiest parts of the entire exercise!!!
 
Hi all, thanks Beatle. It seems as though we are all certainly on the same page as far as frustrations are concerned.

LostMyShirt, I have spoken to the Perth office and they were unaware that the RED 5 Limited website was down. They were looking into it immediately. It is now back up. So weather it was a hacker or not its now accessible.

And Buck, I'm hearing you, about being tempted of pulling our shares. But at the end of the day, we are so close. And we all know the gold pour is IMMINENT. Its just a matter of when...

Cheers Moit
 
Moit said:
Hi all, thanks Beatle. It seems as though we are all certainly on the same page as far as frustrations are concerned.

LostMyShirt, I have spoken to the Perth office and they were unaware that the RED 5 Limited website was down. They were looking into it immediately. It is now back up. So weather it was a hacker or not its now accessible.

And Buck, I'm hearing you, about being tempted of pulling our shares. But at the end of the day, we are so close. And we all know the gold pour is IMMINENT. Its just a matter of when...

Cheers Moit
Click to expand...

Liquidated my position after all this.

The Gold price is taking a hit, RED is late on Ann's and I know that I probably fell into a manipulative trap, but back to Cash I go with a small profit.

I'm sad to have to let go of my holdings, but with the current state of affairs, things don't look pretty.
 
I had wanted to get out at 2.34, and the only reason I didn't was because I wasn't sure about how to go about it during the whole consolidation thing. SP has dropped dramatically since then. :banghead:

Concerned we may hit 1.70-ish again, only because that's how the SP seems to have moved over the past few months.
 
yeah iv just about had a gutful as well, have been in this stock for all these years only to see it being a dud at the end, i beleive the current sp has the gold pour already built into it, my average is only about .85 so if i dump tomorrow still a few bobin in it, very dissapointing indeed.....
 
fastbuck1 said:
yeah iv just about had a gutful as well, have been in this stock for all these years only to see it being a dud at the end, i beleive the current sp has the gold pour already built into it, my average is only about .85 so if i dump tomorrow still a few bobin in it, very dissapointing indeed.....
Click to expand...

Hi All RED holders, shame to see the gold price dip appreciably overnight, which clearly will exacerbate the negativity for RED at the moment. But I do want to extend the thoughts regarding my post yesterday.

Firstly, I don't believe that there is anything major wrong with the Siana gold project. Yeah yeah yeah you might say, Beatle's emotionally involved etc etc. Well I am saying that I don't believe there is anything major for a few reason's, one of which relates to my technical knowledge of the project in its various parts. It has been through an intensive technical program, by a considerable number of competent and industry knowledgeable experts, and nothing has been uncovered which could cause such a major downturn in gold production.

Then there is the knowledge that RED management is in fact excessively conservative. They have a proven record of being ultra-conservative with their reporting. That leads me to the fact that IF there was a major and serious issue, then they certainly would have reported that major setback already to the ASX. I have no doubt about that.

Since we have not heard any information from RED for 3 weeks since the AGM regarding project development I am assuming there has been a setback that has affected the timing of the first gold pour. The gravity gold pour that was previously expected is not a serious issue, firstly it was not expected to be a significant gold pour due to the nature of the low grade being used to commission the plant. The CIL gold pour which was expected a couple of weeks after the AGM is clearly also affected by whatever the holdup is related to. It might be something at the end of the chain in the gold production process, which has delayed the final gold pour. It might be in the electowin process or whatever.

What I was venting my frustration about yesterday is the fact that RED should have provided an update by now, even if it was to announce that there has been another small delay due to whatever the issue is about. RED fail to understand that at such a critical time the onus is on the company to fully inform the market. RED has failed to provide that update and I consider its decision not to fully inform the market as being delinqent, but clearly they consider that the status of the project is not of signficance, and therefore don't have to advise the market under continuous disclosure. My view is that they fail to understand the market, they have always been a poor PR performer, and despite their promise a few quarters ago to improve PR, they have not lifted the game!

So what will I do about things, since I have a considerable RED holding at the moment. I will HOLD!!! I have held my shares a long time, I have waited for the company to build and produce this project, I have supported them through some very frustrating times, times when my views of RED management were quite negative, and we are now within cooee of the finish line for Siana gold production. I am not going to give up within sight of the line.

And on a valuation aspect, RED's share price, based on current gold price and exchange rate, remain way above current share price. And once gold production reaches steady state then EPS and PE's will force the RED share price up, even if the overall market is looking quite sick.

Thats my view anyways,
 
Guess RED management has never heard of underpromise and overdeliver right?

They always seem to be delaying this and that. Under today's climate, I'll take my money elsewhere thanks.

Sold today @ loss, but knowing how the markets love me a positive ann will come out tonite :)
 
Chasero said:
Guess RED management has never heard of underpromise and overdeliver right?

They always seem to be delaying this and that. Under today's climate, I'll take my money elsewhere thanks.

Sold today @ loss, but knowing how the markets love me a positive ann will come out tonite :)
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear about your decision Chasero, but I can hardly blame you with the lack of information. And no I don't see an announcement in the wind anytime soon because I'm still in the stock, I haven't sold a share!

And unlike Fastbuck I personally don't believe that the share price (even before the drop today!) had the gold production factored into it. I can see it rushing back up once FINALLY they actually do pour some gold!!! But they have lost a lot of credibility with the market, with this past month's performance IMO.
 
People are thinking too much into it IMO, gold has dropped quite a bit. Nothing to panic about - it's still above support, however it has hit every gold miner (many harder than RED), so I don't think the drops are unreasonable.
 
FINALLY some news. And whilst that news confirms some unforseen hiccups that have temporarily stalled the plant from producing gold, its very clear that the pathway for gold production is now very much in readiness for that ever-elusive gold pour and the start of a new era for RED5!!!

Yes Starcraftmazter you are obviously correct that most gold miners have been hit for six with the gold price continuing to move down, but RED got a double whammy IMO due to lack of information. This latest news, whilst not giving a good account of the last couple of weeks which must have been quite harrowing onsite for all the managers and crews, now gives absolute certainty of the future for RED.

Its a pity that RED didn't put this news out earlier, even if they may never have had all the solutions at that time it would have been far more preferable to give an update earlier to alert all that the gold production would be delayed until all circuits were resolved and not on the schedule of first gold in November as had previously been stated!

I still have all my shares in RED, the gold price has dropped quite a bit but the valuation for RED remains way above that current gold price, and once they start producing, which clearly will be within the next couple of weeks (RED making only the following comment "...Fresh, higher grade ore from the pit is currently being introduced to the plant..."), then IMO the share price will recover and go to its record high!!! And I believe then RED will trade against the trend of this bear market.
 
I mean seriously? More excuses... more less than positive announcements. :banghead:

"generators not being synchronised" yadda yadda

Continues to underperform against it's peers. I don't see RED going above $2 anytime soon.
 
Guys there is nothing wrong in Siana. The Share price was dipping way before the microcrash on spot gold a few days ago. There is still Gold in the ground, and still a machine up in Siana. Reserves have not been hindered or re-rated lower and there doesn't look like there is going to be any majour hinderance to the company itself.

Take this as an oppertunity to buy. If we do hit 1.70, I will most likely take another buy in at 1.65, which is anyone can remember that was the price we sat on for a couple of days after the dip from peaks at 0.245 ($2.45).

I only am worried about the Buy/Sell depth and the ratio of sales that greatly outweigh the limit orders in the bid depth.

As soon as this levels out, and the price seems to be a nice value underneath $2, I am sure some sort of buy oppertunity will be taken, If not by me than the group I trade with (just friends, mostly hobbyists and people wanting to earn a side income, like myself).

Don't forget the key factors though. They are ready to produce (at some stage after fine tuning) and are debtless. Seems to be all go from here.
 
RED wont see much in the way of gains until the Quarterly report IMO.
It needs to be producing the gold bars sucessfully and putting money in the bank until this happens its just a "pie in the sky".
In saying this I may grab a few if finds its way down to $1.65 in the meantime.
DYOR
I hold just 1 share lolz
:2twocents
 
Hi All RED holders, great to see the share price recover after some opening weakness, presumably as much about the general concerns in the marketplace as anything about Siana. And I agree with you guys who suggest that we now are ready to embark on its new status as a GOLD PRODUCER!!!

Whilst the gold price will also be very important as to how many insto's want to add to their existing positions, or get invested in RED for the first time, I believe you must not contemplate too long before getting this (dare I say it!) final opportunity before the whole market realises RED is on the brink of substantial POSITIVE cash flows each month from its operation. And knowing that it will be a lower cost producer it will become a preferred buy for gold based funds groups as it remains highly discounted even at a gold price of US$1,500.

And remember, we are yet to hear about a new reserves upgrade in due course, that will only add to whatever its implied NPV is (depending on your view of future gold price).

AND we are yet to see what might happen with the potential second tier N American insto's who want RED now that its in its consolidated shares, not a pennydreadful anymore, and its aim to pay a dividend as soon as the operation can do so! Just be aware that you have had this opportunity now, and it might not be here for much longer - I am now full to the brim with RED shares!!!!
 
It doesn't seem to me that this hiccup is anything but to be expected at shakedown time. Any way thanks to all of you sellers, I have topped up in Red again. From here on in they are banking money in my name let the sp do what it will.
 
Chasero said:
Continues to underperform against it's peers. I don't see RED going above $2 anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Bit of a short sighted comment. It could well stay below $2 for the near future for a range of reasons, but it could just as well be above $2 under different circumstances - without any announcements.

I'm not one to speculate over the short-term movement at this stage, especially now that RED is outside it's trading range of recent times, it's hard to predict accurately what will happen.

LostMyShirt said:
Take this as an oppertunity to buy. If we do hit 1.70, I will most likely take another buy in at 1.65, which is anyone can remember that was the price we sat on for a couple of days after the dip from peaks at 0.245 ($2.45).
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. I'll continue to observe technicals and watch gold to figure out a good time to buy back in. Every time gold has had a correction in the last few months it has bounced right back up quickly, it may well rise sharply to Christmas. We'll just have to wait and see.
 
Obviously today RED will come under the same sort of pressure that any gold PRODUCER will come across due to the gold price drop overnight, notwithstanding RED having been pounded recently for its own commissioning delays.

But we do have certainty that RED will soon be producing gold, and lots of it, as all circuits have been tested now and fresh ore has been within the treatment process for at least a few days. An announcement on gold production will finally confirm that Siana is set to produce gold again after a 20 year dormancy.

The gold price of course is central to the immediate future of RED's fortunes both to the extent of its cash flows and share price. At least we can take some heart from the fact that the aussie dollar gold price remains in an uptrend due to the softening aussie dollar which partially offsets the fall in US dollar denominated gold price:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1Y

I'm not sure going to be pretty for the next trading session, and who knows what might happen tomorrow - if US gold price reversed sharply the RED share price could reverse as well, but of course thats not looking likely at the moment. I take heart that RED remains a highly profitable gold producer at anything like the current gold price, and actually taken in the context of when gold was starting its move up to US$1,500 for the first time earlier this year when we were so excited for RED the outlook still looks very positive for RED. But of course I am an eternal optimist and realistically there is a lot of negativity out there too.
 
Boggo said:
The comments on this RED thread seem to be following a familiar pattern.
There are usually two each year that get intense and tend to provide some humour.
I was wondering if there would be another before the end of the year and it looks like RED is it.

This was when this stock was trading at around 9 cents...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&p=618870&viewfull=1#post618870
Click to expand...

Not sure what your point is Boggo, but if there is any consolation I go along with the theory that laughter is the best medicine - and keeping a sense of humour has kept me young over the years!

On a more relevant aspect of this RED thread, as with other goldies RED has copped a beating this morning and one can only ask the question of how much further gold will go down in coming days - whilst the short term trend is down there is always a possibility that eventually traders will step in when they think gold is due for a change. I've noticed a few market commentators today, both in Australia and the US, consider it might be approaching a level that will provide a springboard for a move upwards! I continue to believe that the solutions to both European and US economic woes will eventually result in increased money printing, thus gold should regain some strength when or if that money printing happens.

Was that funny enough for you Boggo, lol?
 
Top