VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
I'm on the train, and will be happy when I get to my destination. I won't be getting off beforehand as I bought a ticket to get somewhere, and its heading in the correct direction as far as I'm concerned!
At the moment there is virtually no volume, whilst I don' have much knowledge of technical analysis, I'm sure that there are a couple of facts that technical traders will still be looking at -:
1. RED remains in a strong uptrend
2. RED has traded downwards in the last few days, but still within its uptrend channel, on virtually no volume.
I remain confident because of my own fundamental knowledge and valuation of RED, plus other facts that support my view:
1. Its got a stock standard gold plant, costing $85 million (plus or minus);
2. Siana has got around 850,000 ozs gold in reserves - for those who don't understand what a reserve implies, it means its economic and been modeled to accomodate all technical and financial factors;
3. Valuations, on a consolidated basis, remain at around $4.00 - $5.00 depending on the gold price and exchange rate of the day.
4. The project has been assessed and reviewed by a considerable number of industry competent technical consultants on behalf of RED and banks, or by analysts on behalf of instos.
5. There is a considerable shareholding held by industry savvy fund managers and institutions, both in Australia and elsewhere.
Get off the train if you want, and you may well still find a way to where you want to go some other way. I'm staying put!
I may reenter at $2.00-$2.10, but until then I didn't see much point holding as the longer the announcement takes to come out, the more likely it will just gradually slip down from here as a lack of it is signalling that things are falling behind etc. By the time the announcement does come, it will either do nothing or spark a gradual rise back up to $2.30ish imo. 'Yeah we were a bit slow pouring this gold bar that you already knew we were going to pour at some point' - not gonna do much to the price, imo.
I know you guys are financially and thus emotionally invested in the stock, but if there's no action don't blame others for making the decision to put their money where they think it will do better..
If anything I listened to the spruiking here too much when making my decision to buy when perhaps I should have not read it at all, and in hindsight I just got lucky with a good enough return. Not to say it won't get to your valuations of $4+, but are there really any signals to buy or hold right now? From a purely value investor point of view maybe, if thats such a thing with a speculative stock..
The consolidation has just increased the danger of holding, I guess not all traders even know how to trade it now.
I know you guys are financially and thus emotionally invested in the stock, but if there's no action don't blame others for making the decision to put their money where they think it will do better..
If anything I listened to the spruiking here too much when making my decision to buy when perhaps I should have not read it at all, and in hindsight I just got lucky with a good enough return. Not to say it won't get to your valuations of $4+, but are there really any signals to buy or hold right now? From a purely value investor point of view maybe, if thats such a thing with a speculative stock..
The consolidation has just increased the danger of holding, I guess not all traders even know how to trade it now.
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Same problem here with Bell Direct. Advised that my funds have vanished into the wind too until December 8 when REDDA starts trading under RED again. Got out at $2.28 and glad I did
Transaction wasn't today btw.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Just a quick comment on the Technical observations Beatle.
A rounding (price action on the chart) slow fall in price indicates lack of interest from buyers.
Sellers have to take lower bids.
This action shows impatience.
There is also the real risk that buyers have pre empted the up coming pour and price will actually fall on the fact.
Ill have a little side bet with Beatle that thats what will happen!
A rounding (price action on the chart) slow fall in price indicates lack of interest from buyers.
Sellers have to take lower bids.
This action shows impatience.
There is also the real risk that buyers have pre empted the up coming pour and price will actually fall on the fact.
Ill have a little side bet with Beatle that thats what will happen!
Thanks for your more informed technical interpretation Tech/a, lucky I don't buy/sell on my own chartists views, lol.
As for a side bet, I think that my entire holding in RED is a tad bigger that any side bet you may want to make with me, ie betting $10 or $100 or similar actually won't make much difference to my outcome from RED!!! Yes I am financially attached to RED, but I have chosen to be so, my decision is based purely on my expectations (greed maybe) that Siana will come online as I expect and the feasibility study forecasts.
But time will tell, and by the way I agree that its so frustrating for the news to come out so late, its been the story for RED for a long time, perhaps thats why the stock remains having a number of doubters and knockers. And due to my cynicism maybe the date of the announcement will post-date finalisation of the consolidation process, but that's just showing my frustration of course.
Finally Silence, I don't "blame" anyone else to take their money out of RED and invest elsewhere. Each has their own view for whatever reason. But I do like to put a balance to any argument based on what I have observed to be the project fundamentals, its the way I have worked in industry over many years with success and I think its crazy logic to presume that a chartist with a technical interpretation can predict whether a project will succeed or fail! The volume for one thing is so low that certainly no one is selling down a big position at the moment on anything coming out of the project IMO.
At the same time Silence, can you blame the doubters if you decide to ignore RED in the future because of their negative views? For me its not important whether you want to re-consider an investment or not, but surely its your own best interest to make a decision based on a balanced view. But clearly with your comments that you made a decision to buy based on spruiking is not a good sign for your investment strategy IMO. I certainly don't consider my view as spruiking! Thats up to your own opinion though.
As for a side bet, I think that my entire holding in RED is a tad bigger that any side bet you may want to make with me, ie betting $10 or $100 or similar actually won't make much difference to my outcome from RED!!! Yes I am financially attached to RED, but I have chosen to be so, my decision is based purely on my expectations (greed maybe) that Siana will come online as I expect and the feasibility study forecasts.
But time will tell, and by the way I agree that its so frustrating for the news to come out so late, its been the story for RED for a long time, perhaps thats why the stock remains having a number of doubters and knockers. And due to my cynicism maybe the date of the announcement will post-date finalisation of the consolidation process, but that's just showing my frustration of course.
Finally Silence, I don't "blame" anyone else to take their money out of RED and invest elsewhere. Each has their own view for whatever reason. But I do like to put a balance to any argument based on what I have observed to be the project fundamentals, its the way I have worked in industry over many years with success and I think its crazy logic to presume that a chartist with a technical interpretation can predict whether a project will succeed or fail! The volume for one thing is so low that certainly no one is selling down a big position at the moment on anything coming out of the project IMO.
At the same time Silence, can you blame the doubters if you decide to ignore RED in the future because of their negative views? For me its not important whether you want to re-consider an investment or not, but surely its your own best interest to make a decision based on a balanced view. But clearly with your comments that you made a decision to buy based on spruiking is not a good sign for your investment strategy IMO. I certainly don't consider my view as spruiking! Thats up to your own opinion though.
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No different to previously; trade the range, see what happens. Friday it will start trading as RED again (if I'm not mistaken?), providing all goes well in the world, if RED breaks out, it should be obvious and a cause to buy in.
Hi Moit and Beatle, thanks for thinking of me. Yes I am still on board and hoping to get to the opening next year.........whenever that is. Very busy time of the year and I am off to Japan next week for the Christmas/New Year period. The consolidation process seems to have taken the edge off trading in RED (or REDDA). Possibly this is related to the traders as I understand settlement is deferred until relisting under RED with the usual T + 3 applying from that day. I can't imagine that would suit the traders very much from a liquidity aspect. Same story with the institutions possibly. I don't have much experience with trading through consolidation periods so my thoughts are related to the deferral of settlements. Will be interesting once the relisting as RED occurs to see if there is any pent up activity either way. I notice a number of small goldies have been subdued so maybe this has been weighing on RED as well. No matter IMO as the story continues to evolve. I note an Australian has been taken hostage(possibly wounded) in the southern part of Mindanao a few days ago. Unfavourable press of this kind certainly doesn't help things much either, especially for those investors that do not understand the Philippines. AB
Well spotted Mgm1a, I can't understand what Matthews is about moving back up from 6.1% at the time of the AGM to 8.1%, its very intriguing although it maybe misunderstood what is really happening! Or have I missed something - have you got a view Mgm1a?
And its great to see you're still around AB, sounds like you spend half your working life traveling to some great places - I would be happy to get some tips about traveling to Japan when we meet at the mine opening ceremony! (Japan's a country I would love to visit).
AB I agree with your views on RED, and also we will soon be testing what the possibility of pent up supply due to the confusing consolidation process,starting tomorrow. I'd like to think that RED will have a positive news release being prepared in a short while, just to calm those holders who have been getting a bit jittery with lack of news. I assume that its not long to go now as its been 2 weeks since the AGM, at which time it was declared that wet commissioning had begun and unless there are some minor hiccups (eg mechanical or electrical failures that might delay the progress slightly), it must be very soon that first gold production from the CIL plant will be achieved.
And its great to see you're still around AB, sounds like you spend half your working life traveling to some great places - I would be happy to get some tips about traveling to Japan when we meet at the mine opening ceremony! (Japan's a country I would love to visit).
AB I agree with your views on RED, and also we will soon be testing what the possibility of pent up supply due to the confusing consolidation process,starting tomorrow. I'd like to think that RED will have a positive news release being prepared in a short while, just to calm those holders who have been getting a bit jittery with lack of news. I assume that its not long to go now as its been 2 weeks since the AGM, at which time it was declared that wet commissioning had begun and unless there are some minor hiccups (eg mechanical or electrical failures that might delay the progress slightly), it must be very soon that first gold production from the CIL plant will be achieved.
Hi Beatle, Ha Ha I wish it was as good as you say travelling around. Yes I have spent some time in Japan over the last 18 months and yes it is a country I can recommend to travel in. But not necessarily for inexperienced travellers as English can be hard to come by. But back to my reason for posting. I am somewhat suspicious about the reported Matthews holdings as I think there may well have been some principal broker trading going on. While I do not have a clue on the actual value of their current holdings(other than what has been reported), I think it is possible they have been playing the market somewhat. As they have been long term holders of RED, I have thought it strange that they have substantially reduced their position over the past few months, but I guess it is possible they are running a risk reduction/profit taking scenario. It does however seem quite odd when considering they were such strong early supporters. Maybe there is some politics involved, but in my experience institutions only run a political theme if they think the management is stuffing things up. I am looking forward to catching up with Beatle and others at the opening, now looking like March I believe. In the meantime, tomorrow is the first "consolidated" proper trading day but I am not expecting much despite others expecting some sort of boost. Worthwhile checking out some of the other small goldies particularly those in the Phils and you will see not much excitement going on. Thus despite commissioning and production activity occurring right now, there is some time to go I feel to start to see the SP move up to more realistic levels. Will check the RED sediment in the glass tonight to ghet a better insight(lol). AB
expecting some sort of boost. Worthwhile checking out some of the other small goldies particularly those in the Phils and you will see not much excitement going on. Thus despite commissioning and production activity occurring right now, there is some time to go I feel to start to see the SP move up to more realistic levels. Will check the RED sediment in the glass tonight to ghet a better insight(lol). AB
red5 has a market cap of 2 BILLION dollars AUD or USD I don't care that seems outrageous for an exploratory, Junior or new producer.
Check here for comparisons:
Aurico Gold Inc AUQ US
15,962,198
150,204,283
6.33%
Alamos Gold Inc AGI CN
6,776,981
112,145,771
4.73%
Perseus Mining Ltd PRU AU
23,329,486
74,799,252
3.15%
Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM CN
9,784,897
71,868,115
3.03%
Nevsun Resources Ltd NSU CN
11,409,617
68,123,850
2.87%
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc KGI CN
3,332,740
59,037,862
2.49%
Medusa Mining Ltd MML AU
9,425,225
54,703,168
2.31%
Minefinders Corp MFN US
4,633,835
54,864,606
2.31%
Endeavour Silver Corp EXK US
4,793,517
54,166,742
2.28%
Aurizon Mines Ltd ARZ CN
8,902,803
52,980,303
2.23%
http://vaneck.com/funds/GDXJ.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=gdx
badger7, you`ll find that according to the consolidation notice of the 7th Dec RED has 128,367,673 shares issued and in todays price of $2.09, that would give it a MC of $268,288,436.
Think you missed the 10 : 1. The train has left the platform
Think you missed the 10 : 1. The train has left the platform
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Quote Originally Posted by Chasero View Post
Expected gold pour = November.
It's still November?
Wouldn't management want to delay the announcement right before AGM anyway?
Therefore, your shares are up 5% today! Now vote yes for my 200k bonus. Kidding!
Still waiting and we are aproaching the second week in December
Good luck to all holders
Expected gold pour = November.
It's still November?
Wouldn't management want to delay the announcement right before AGM anyway?
Therefore, your shares are up 5% today! Now vote yes for my 200k bonus. Kidding!
Still waiting and we are aproaching the second week in December
Good luck to all holders
So November has come and gone, middle of December is here and we're still waiting....
Hi all RED members. Beatle and A.B. now i apologize for my delayed response. Thanks Beatle for answering my questions, re, Rosters and so forth.
I must admit, my frustrations with management are deepening. I know its not just me, we all are. Posters on other forums are also in dis-belief. I'm absolutely gob-smacked we haven't heard anything, not even a progress report. The last time we heard something was in a chairmans speech from the AGM. Wet and dry commissioning was almost complete, if my memory serves me correct. Beatle am i right in saying, a small gold bar was to be produced, then a week or two later (which is now), was a major gold pour. I'm under the impression it has been raining for the last few days in the Phills, but surely that hasn't been to much of a hindrance, considering the pit is 100% dewatered and they do have a ROM pad, hopefully with a stock pile on it for those rainy days.
With the majority of announcements being on an immediate release basis, it sure would have been a great day for an Ann, with market sentiments up and a steady gold price it could have been the perfect day. But on the other hand with so much disappointment regarding news and a major build up of anticipation, equating to a nice rise of the Sp, then to be let down again, followed by the equivalent drop in the Sp, I'm really not expecting to much out of RED. I once posted RED management have one chance to get this right, and so far have failed to meet shareholder expectations. November wasn't it???
I'm starting to lose interest and i never thought id say that about RED. Then we get a bloke wanting to dump 200 000 shares at $2.10. Does he know something we don't. Or has he just had enough as well!
A.B its great to see you are traveling the world with your new wife. Hopefully she isn't spending to much of your hard earned shopping, lol. Good luck with your ventures, i envy you..
And good luck to all holders, maybe here something by Xmas. I sure hope its before. Just my thoughts and concerns. Apologies for being a little negative. Cheers Moit.
I must admit, my frustrations with management are deepening. I know its not just me, we all are. Posters on other forums are also in dis-belief. I'm absolutely gob-smacked we haven't heard anything, not even a progress report. The last time we heard something was in a chairmans speech from the AGM. Wet and dry commissioning was almost complete, if my memory serves me correct. Beatle am i right in saying, a small gold bar was to be produced, then a week or two later (which is now), was a major gold pour. I'm under the impression it has been raining for the last few days in the Phills, but surely that hasn't been to much of a hindrance, considering the pit is 100% dewatered and they do have a ROM pad, hopefully with a stock pile on it for those rainy days.
With the majority of announcements being on an immediate release basis, it sure would have been a great day for an Ann, with market sentiments up and a steady gold price it could have been the perfect day. But on the other hand with so much disappointment regarding news and a major build up of anticipation, equating to a nice rise of the Sp, then to be let down again, followed by the equivalent drop in the Sp, I'm really not expecting to much out of RED. I once posted RED management have one chance to get this right, and so far have failed to meet shareholder expectations. November wasn't it???
I'm starting to lose interest and i never thought id say that about RED. Then we get a bloke wanting to dump 200 000 shares at $2.10. Does he know something we don't. Or has he just had enough as well!
A.B its great to see you are traveling the world with your new wife. Hopefully she isn't spending to much of your hard earned shopping, lol. Good luck with your ventures, i envy you..
And good luck to all holders, maybe here something by Xmas. I sure hope its before. Just my thoughts and concerns. Apologies for being a little negative. Cheers Moit.
Hi moit and all, yep I`m in complete agreement with RED`s communicarion abilities. NONE of my emails have been acknowledged.
I`m am seriously thinking of giving them the flick and walk away with modest profits.
Noticed no accessability to their web site either. They seriously need a good hard look at their PR as I`ve said before.
BF
I`m am seriously thinking of giving them the flick and walk away with modest profits.
Noticed no accessability to their web site either. They seriously need a good hard look at their PR as I`ve said before.
BF
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No it indicates they are busy dealing with the hacker who done over their website.