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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Chasero said:
But wouldn't you think the risk of a delay in the gold pour would be factored in?

At best, price may rise 5-15% imo.

At worse, price may drop by same token, maybe further.
Click to expand...

I said this ages ago, at which point a lot of people agree, but it seems like everyone has forgotten again.

Look at companies that have moved into production in the past. They almost never run hard when production commences (because it is was already expected) and people then turn their attention to where or not they will hit their production targets.

Once you get one or two quarters under your belt and management confirm that they can run a mine profitably you will get a re-rate.
 
A bit of movement at the station today.
At one stage I saw a spread of $2.12-$2.19 and it seems the buyers didn't want to wait..

Bit of a sad volume though.

At least the total bids of 40000 shares at $2.18 is more than the whole day's volume so far, so we've got some solid support there :p


(Disclosure: I hold)
 
Hi Silence, good to see your post (and not being silent, lol!).

I agree that there is movement at the station and its a shame that its on very low volume. I have been thinking a lot about this the past couple of days, and think that we are probably at the transition in terms of the sort of investors who will now become more active on the trading side of RED.

I would assume that the usual day traders won't be so active now that some of the volatility may reduce somewhat at these higher consolidated prices. Thus there is likely to be an exiting of these sorts of participants (I'm happy to be corrected by someone who is a daytrader and who doesn't agree with my thoughts on this).

I believe that with the consolidation there are probably those who don't like to trade the higher priced shares (in fact I have rarely held mining stocks that are priced above a dollar, although I don't shy away from the likes of the banks and telecommunications stocks priced in the dollars). And additionally with the consolidation not entirely sorted out in terms of REDDA vs RED it also complicates the trading out by current holders who don't have a large number of shares.

And as InvestorPaul points out RED won't be commanding a complete re-rating prior to a couple of quarters gold production performance demonstrates their longer term share price worthiness, thus the newly sought second tier insto's that would also want to know the gold production track record before investing is still ahead of RED.

Therefore thinking through those dynamics I guess we are at the cross roads, and perhaps we are going to be in this trading process for few more weeks at the very least. But unlike Tech/a and InvestorPaul, I do believe that for those that are prepared to take a view that Siana will come online close to Base Case Feasibility Study performance levels, which has of course some associated risks with it (and I accept those risks with my own investment in RED), this is possibly the ideal time to beat the new insto's into RED. Of course though you can't get much stock if you are seeking a bigger holding.

I do have a confidence that Siana will come online successfully, the plant looks great, the mining is already at levels ahead of budget, and the investors involved should support the stock once the positive news comes out. Of course the wild card is Matthews, has he stopped selling for now?

By the way InvestorPaul, I don't disagree with your view entirely about the re-rating coming about once we have a couple of quarters performance, but its all about relative value compared to NPV. RED has been so discounted that it has got a long way to go before true NPV (depending upon your future gold view outlook of course) is achieved. And my view is that once we do get supporting confirmation of gold production information RED will certainly re-rate beyond that NPV valuation.
 
But unlike Tech/a
Click to expand...

Tech/a is not saying dont buy it.
All he is saying is that at this time from a technical view point HE wont be buying it!
He may at sometime buy it
He may at NOT buy it.
Since Ive been posting price has risen 4c (In effect).
MML did that in an hr today.
I trade Momentum.When I find it.
If it comes to RED Ill be on it.
 
Originally Posted by tech/a

Nothing is going to happen.
At best price will do nothing
At worst It will drop.

"

Wrong!!!


tech/a said:
Tech/a is not saying dont buy it.
All he is saying is that at this time from a technical view point HE wont be buying it!
He may at sometime buy it
He may at NOT buy it.
Since Ive been posting price has risen 4c (In effect).
MML did that in an hr today.
I trade Momentum.When I find it.
If it comes to RED Ill be on it.
Click to expand...

MML is currently up 3.58%, RED is up 6.67%. Doh!!!

(Its all fun!)
 
beatle said:
Originally Posted by tech/a

Nothing is going to happen.
At best price will do nothing
At worst It will drop.

"

Wrong!!!




MML is currently up 3.58%, RED is up 6.67%. Doh!!!

(Its all fun!)
Click to expand...

Yep, up 7% today on pending gold pour annoucement.

Definitely outshone other gold stocks today.

Today is the LAST day of November. If no announcement tonight I will be a bit worried tomorrow =(
 
A good day for RED.
There is very low volume indicating small players (retail).
Great support at $2.10
With 30% traded at open.

Only 170000 traded all day.
But going up on low volume indicates no supply so sellers not interested.
 
Agree with tech/a on this one...

I am out till at least Feb 2012 to see what happens. The range it is trading in is still the same as pre consolidation so I still see that as of little interest. Not willing to risk capital on this till production starts and if I can see that they can continue momentum in there operations.

Actually, at the moment I see it as a little over valued. If it goes under $2, I might do a move in and out. If it doesn't, no big one...:rolleyes:
 
Actually I'm starting to think that RED may have reconsidered putting out a release on a small gravity product gold bar, and decided instead to wait for the pouring of a more significant CIL product bar that will confirm to the market that the entire process is now in working order. I don't think that lack of an announcement at this stage is of a concern, bearing in mind that the low grade feed used to get the gravity bar probably has limited gravity amenable gold within the ore. (Thats why I have continually referred to the first bar being a small bar!).

And of course since today is the last day of November there could still be such an announcement tomorrow relating to 30 Nov production (even as I say its not so important overall to the process).

If on the other hand they wait till the CIL gold pour for the announcement then they manage to let the information out at a time when RED is likely to be reinstated (from REDDA on 8 Dec). That would certainly give an oomph to the share price at at time when it could otherwise come under pressure!
 
theartglasshouse said:
Agree with tech/a on this one...

Actually, at the moment I see it as a little over valued. If it goes under $2, I might do a move in and out. If it doesn't, no big one...:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Valuation of RED, based on Siana, at this point in time is conjectural. Certainly it is not valued at full value of the NPV related to Siana cash flows on Base Case numbers at present under any gold price within cooee of current gold price, and then its an arguable point to what level you should discount from that NPV valuation. And of course with gold price another point of contention there will always be considerable variation in people's personal valuation.

BASED solely on NPV, and on current US$ gold price and Au/US $ exchange rate, then RED is currently trading at approximately 50% discount to that NPV valuation!!! AND with the knowledge that RED is due to point out a revised ore reserve that obviously will provide a favourable outcome ABOVE the current base case valuation, I can see an argument for RED trading at around 50 cps to meet NPV, notwithstanding that most low cost, long life gold operations tending to trade at a premium to that NPV when in steady state gold production ie a price above 50 cps!!!

So you can consider the RED share price being over-valued if you want to say that it should be trading at a big discount to NPV, but I for one, of course as a big supporter of RED, will completely disagree with that argument! I believe RED has got a long way to go before it can be argued as to fair value! And if we don't see that value within the next month subject to gold production coming online within cooee of forecast, then RED will definitely come under the microscope of other opportunistic gold producers (not the big producers, but the mid-tier producers). But i don't think it will get to that, I think the share price will continue to move up, in fits and starts as happens all the time of course.

If gold continues running up RED will get a bonus sooner than i had thought...
 
beatle said:
....

BASED solely on NPV, and on current US$ gold price and Au/US $ exchange rate, then RED is currently trading at approximately 50% discount to that NPV valuation!!! AND with the knowledge that RED is due to point out a revised ore reserve that obviously will provide a favourable outcome ABOVE the current base case valuation, I can see an argument for RED trading at around 50 cps to meet NPV, notwithstanding that most low cost, long life gold operations tending to trade at a premium to that NPV when in steady state gold production ie a price above 50 cps!!!

...
Click to expand...

And of course I woke up far too early when I posted that last valuation - I am yet to change the number of shares on issue in my cash flow model, thus naturally I meant a valuation of $5.00 per share not 50 cps (which is pre-consolidation)!

I can see a case where RED will climb appreciably above $5.00 per share once steady state is achieved with gold production at close to forecast Base Case BFS levels (at forecast opex).
 
Quite an amazing start to the entire market today, in line with overseas markets. Its fantastic to see that the big overseas central banks have lined up to collectively print money, thus reinstating gold's unique position as an international store of value. And that's reflected with aussie gold shares this morning, and yet if you see the aussie dollar gold price in fact the gold price has fallen away in the past couple of days due to a strengthening aussie dollar:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1W

RED is now testing a key resistance level at $2.30 and again its started out with virtually no volume. RED has under-performed the general gold market though this morning, and I'm sure that until we get reassurance of how the operation goes with the pouring of first gold the move up will be slow.
 
Hi all RED club members.

Hi Beatle, great RED analysis as always. And yes i was getting a little confused with the pre-consolidated talk you were giving, lol. Though i must admit, i am warming to it. But still refer back to pre-consolidation days as far as volume, market depth, share price and so forth. I believe once we are actually trading as RED again, ( DEC 8th ) we will begin to see the original, average market depth appear as clearly and strongly as it once was. ( As in 200 to buy and 200 to sell ), instead of 23 and 23...

Though the consolidation hasn't had any real effect on RED at the moment, the sp has had a continued rise ( about 11% in two consecutive trading days. ) I put this down to pure anticipation of an up-coming announcement. We as holders are waiting for that ONE big announcement. THE GOLD POUR ! Geez it would be great to see a photo in an Ann, of the first GOLD bar, stipulating this is the first of many gold bars to be produced at the Siana Gold Mine. Or am i only dreaming ??

Anyhow, we are sitting pretty at a comfortable $ 2.33. and an announcement tomorrow at 8.30 a.m. would be just perfect. I am praying !! Surely something has got to give... Surely thay have something in the pipeline...

At the end of the day, we need something. Weather they have had a hiccup, or the ore is still being treated, we need to know. It isn't real fair being kept in the dark, when a November POUR was on-line and on-schedule. It is now December the first and nothing. They have to man up and let the market know, whatever the news. Its there duty...

And just a couple of questions Beatle regarding rosters. Do you know the Siana roster at all. Are the working a 24 hr roster, 7 days a week? Over Xmas? Is there a break? Or just day work? It is something they haven't mentioned. But as a mine worker myself, i am keen to know what roster they are actually on.

Just my thoughts, good luck to all RED holders...

P.S. Beatle have you heard from A.B. Its been months. I sure hope he is still part of the RED team and his new wife is treating him ok, LOL..

Regards Moit. :)
 
Hi Moit, sorry for the delayed response, I've been away from the internet since lunch yesterday. I think you have made a lot of interesting points, and agree that the move up since the consolidation began has been fantastic, although its hard to know whether its more related to the lack of retail sellers not being able to trade, or Siana expectations, or some other reason.

I agree with you that we should be continuously informed about how the project is going, and its disappointing that we haven't had an update since the AGM, considering its supposed to be pouring a wee gold bar from the gravity circuit. But perhaps RED has decided that it should be included as part of a more relevant CIL gold pour in the coming week (I believe it would take 2 weeks for that to happen, plus or minus). Perhaps if we did get a status report that Siana had produced, say a 5 oz bar, from the gravity circuit the company would be laughed at, although the significance of such a small bar is highly relevant to the process. Remember that RED has used and processed only low grade Suricon mined feed for this commissioning, thus its unlikely a lot of gravity gold is available from that type of feed material.

I can wait for the bigger bar, and it shouldn't take long for that to occur now - certainly the timing of the RED shares coming back online on 8 Dec seems to be about the timeframe! Of course that also is subject to all things occurring without any minor setbacks onsite. AND any significant negative setbacks onsite would be reported on for sure as they happen, so I can't see that being an issue. I also confirm that I haven't been able to talk with the Chairman over the last few days, so presumably he is once again avoiding discussions that might inadvertently lead to sensitive information becoming available to selected investors. Interesting though that as you point out, that the share price was up 11% in the past couple of days, does someone know something that we don't know?

About the shifts, to be honest I am not aware of what is being worked onsite, but as you would know yourself being involved in the mining industry, that the process clearly will be on a continuous operations basis, 7 days a week 24 hours a day, and even though I realise that the Philippines is a highly catholic oriented country, I can't see the plant stopping over Christmas. Perhaps there will be a build up on the ROM stockpile prior with mining off for the day and the crusher down if they can get sufficient crusher throughput beforehand. But I really don't know about their forward plans for the Christmas period.

As to AB, no I haven't seen any of his posts for a while, and I do hope he remains involved. I had hoped to catch up with him at the time of the official mine opening, whenever that falls due. (And that is clearly now going to be held in 2012).
 
A slow start to the week for RED, shame that there is no news out re the commissioning, and maybe the consolidation completion date or soon thereafter will be the trigger for an announcement (how could a financial happening force an announcement re the commissioning - oh I'm so cynical!!!).

Certainly most parties are holding off buying or selling at the moment, its been the quietest trading for quite a while - one would hope that once the commissioning is completed that we get back to increases in trade volumes, although I'm sure some of the day traders will have lost interest due to the consolidation price.

But gold production levels and cost of production, forecast to keep RED at the forefront of the gold market at current prices, should rule future trading, either by the insto's or retail investors, not making a quick turn on the stock price as day traders appeared to be doing previously.
 
Hi guys, just a word of caution when trading RED with the new code REDDA.

I had a reasonable size holding inside my Commsec margin loan (there's no LVR available but I trade everything in it). I sold it off last week and got the confirmation note. I then purchased another share with LVR and thought everything was ok. Come Monday I had a margin call, and basically had to sell off my new shares for a tiny loss as I didn't have time to sit on the phone arguing with a call centre monkey as I was at work.
Since then my ~$7000 seems to have vanished into the wind and the unsettled transactions suggests that I never had or sold any RED/REDDA shares :S. Unsettled is $9 (the loss I made) and the equity value is of the other shares I hold/held not including RED.
I will sort it out with them at some point, probably when the code returns to RED, but in the meantime I would advise phoning to check that the transaction worked properly if you sell them, even if everything seems fine at the time. I know my balance updated properly on the day I sold them, but something happened since then, and it wasn't any changes in LVR for any single companies.

At least I sold at a good time..
 
This thread is starting to remind me of PEN unfortunately with the spruiking but no action. Thinking of stepping off the train, taking profits and going elsewhere.

Where do other people sit with this stock of late?
 
Technically It hasnt and isnt performing.
As such I never got on the train.
Evidently its coming!
From what Ive read its a really swish train with all
the bells and whistles.
There are lots of people on the train who have paid heaps for the ticket.
They are patiently waiting for it to get a move on.
But until it leaves I cant see any reason to get on.

But lots of huffing and puffing!

Thomas.gif
 
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