Its about 1000kms away so I would think that RED will be safe for now
Unless I'm doing something wrong, Surigao is about 175km NE of Cagayan de Oro. Siana is more south so probably even closer?
VAU - Vault Minerals
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Unless I'm doing something wrong, Surigao is about 175km NE of Cagayan de Oro. Siana is more south so probably even closer?
Agreed. and when you look at the weather map and the heavy cloud, I bet it pIssed down at Siana. Whether it is affected by any swollen rivers couldn`t say but the mine would have got a hammering.
I have not heard of any damage to the mine.
It was a storm that hit places that do not normally get hit. Thus the
damage and loss of life reported. It has been a bad year over there for weather - A typhoon earlier this year did some damage to a couple of my farms and one of my houses. I also had the displeasure of being out on the water in one of the typhoons a couple of months ago.
They will have had lots of practice this year at getting the site's water management
right. So they should be ontop of this.
Looking on the bright side - a drop in share price might present an excellent buying
opportunity.
It was a storm that hit places that do not normally get hit. Thus the
damage and loss of life reported. It has been a bad year over there for weather - A typhoon earlier this year did some damage to a couple of my farms and one of my houses. I also had the displeasure of being out on the water in one of the typhoons a couple of months ago.
They will have had lots of practice this year at getting the site's water management
right. So they should be ontop of this.
Looking on the bright side - a drop in share price might present an excellent buying
opportunity.
yes you are right. Yahoo was a little slow as well and I relied on them.
I have been holding for five years and hear a lot of hoping. There has been action but not in its price.
RED are well and truly being tested as Reeftip accurately points out, and it makes each milestone all the more difficult to achieve. But I'm glad to hear from my mate who goes onsite frequently that the Siana mine had no damage from the effects of the wind and there was no flooding, but as expected there was lots of rain. I would imagine that the company will put out an announcement to that effect (or if they don't they should do!).
I can imagine it will have some impact on the pit and it might make it hard for them to build up the ROM pad in preparation for the festive season (I'm unaware of the shifts being worked over Christmas, I forgot to ask!), but I would imagine that they have been building up the stockpile prior to the Friday when the worst of the typhoon began.
I would imagine that the first gold pour will be this week, not sure when exactly, but I understand that there is a board meeting onsite and its possible that the gold pour will coincide with the board visiting site. Also they probably would intend to provide pics of the pour and site at that time, so the effects of the rain will be evident for all to see.
(How far away from Siana are your houses Reeftip - do you live there at all?).
I can imagine it will have some impact on the pit and it might make it hard for them to build up the ROM pad in preparation for the festive season (I'm unaware of the shifts being worked over Christmas, I forgot to ask!), but I would imagine that they have been building up the stockpile prior to the Friday when the worst of the typhoon began.
I would imagine that the first gold pour will be this week, not sure when exactly, but I understand that there is a board meeting onsite and its possible that the gold pour will coincide with the board visiting site. Also they probably would intend to provide pics of the pour and site at that time, so the effects of the rain will be evident for all to see.
(How far away from Siana are your houses Reeftip - do you live there at all?).
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The rumblings in the tea leaves are telling me that opportunity time for another profit run may be taking shape as expected.
A couple of target areas in play just now, an important one being the 50% retracement of the run up to "A" at 1.75 which is now breached intraday. The next support level is 1.65 if the current action remains below 1.75 at the close today.
Worst case scenario would be a break of 1.65 where the target would then be where "D" equals "B" at 1.44 but I think an opportunity may present itself around the areas originally predicted (if the tea leaves are behaving).
(click to expand)
Attachments
Most appreciative of your chartist view Boggo, but of course your reference to an "opportunity" clearly means to take such opportunity you need to buy! And the fact that you point to two scenarios of either it being an opportunity at 1.65 or 1.44 means you have to bite the bullet at either one of those levels, so making that decision is the big call.
I drink more coffee than tea so my reading of the tea leaves is very limited, but when I saw that you had posted again I assumed you were going to say your tea leaves had predicted the typhoon, lol!
The trading in most of the market today is curious, including the gold plays. Most of the market was trading down around 1.6% lower until about 45 minutes ago when the market seemed to drop way down to below 2 %, and at the same time gold in US$ has risen above US$1,600!!!
RED is not outperforming at the moment but I think its almost at the time to shine knowing its situation with the project commissioning!
I drink more coffee than tea so my reading of the tea leaves is very limited, but when I saw that you had posted again I assumed you were going to say your tea leaves had predicted the typhoon, lol!
The trading in most of the market today is curious, including the gold plays. Most of the market was trading down around 1.6% lower until about 45 minutes ago when the market seemed to drop way down to below 2 %, and at the same time gold in US$ has risen above US$1,600!!!
RED is not outperforming at the moment but I think its almost at the time to shine knowing its situation with the project commissioning!
Well, retail shares took a major hit today led by Billabong (down 40%)
All other stocks look kinda rosy
My houses are on a couple of Islands about an hour by boat from Surigao City. They
are still in the Surigao Del Norte province. We do have some business interests on Mindanao Island - in Surigao City and Tandag.
I reside in Australia but I try to spend a couple of months a year over there. My wife is from that part of the world.
Thanks for the post - you have summed things up nicely. Teething trouble is not at all uncommon with new mines - I usually look on this as an good time to top up my holdings as the impatient ones bail out.
Thanks Reeftip, seems you must have an idyllic place to go to in that part of the globe every now and then - typhoons excepted of course! (What I have enjoyed about posting on ASF for RED is that it gives us an opportunity to meet up with other interesting people, many of whom have a common interest of RED, lets hope we all share a successful investment as well!).
There was a fair amount of cleaning out of RED by weak holders yesterday, and I got the impression that some bigger trader was also unloading (obviously the 300,000 crossing could have been amonst that), and I wonder if Matthews is now either below or close to the 5% level! IF he stops selling it would be a real positive for RED share price.
The pre-market for RED seems strange, I almost thought that I had the wrong screen page with no selling at anywhere near the level we saw yesterday - is it indicative that the sellers have got the word that a positive announcement is due out soon? I wonder...
I presume RED's chart is interpreted at the moment as looking sick, but for my money its looking like about ready to base out before its next leg up again!!! (GO RED).
There was a fair amount of cleaning out of RED by weak holders yesterday, and I got the impression that some bigger trader was also unloading (obviously the 300,000 crossing could have been amonst that), and I wonder if Matthews is now either below or close to the 5% level! IF he stops selling it would be a real positive for RED share price.
The pre-market for RED seems strange, I almost thought that I had the wrong screen page with no selling at anywhere near the level we saw yesterday - is it indicative that the sellers have got the word that a positive announcement is due out soon? I wonder...
I presume RED's chart is interpreted at the moment as looking sick, but for my money its looking like about ready to base out before its next leg up again!!! (GO RED).
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And that was on the 6th of Dec, smart money
Not that sick actually, definitely not as sick as it was when it was the profit takers moved in at the beginning of Dec and you guys were waiting for "The Chairman" to come to the rescue which obviously never eventuated.
The behaviour of some of these stocks is a lot more predictable than some are aware and that is why some can take profits, wait until it comes back to the expected levels and then have an opportunity to do it all over again if there is nothing better on offer.
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RED is getting closer to a buy for me, I beleive anyting under $1.70 would be a good buy.
Im at the ready to pull the trigger and have a shot at the bulls eye.
DYOR
I hold 1 share of RED5
Im at the ready to pull the trigger and have a shot at the bulls eye.
DYOR
I hold 1 share of RED5
RED is getting closer to a buy for me, I beleive anyting under $1.70 would be a good buy.
Im at the ready to pull the trigger and have a shot at the bulls eye.
DYOR
I hold 1 share of RED5
Doug, does that mean you might lash out soon and double your holding (lol - sorry I just couldn't resist it!). I agree with your sentiments about it being about ripe to move. BUT of course that still depends upon RED putting out an announcement that it had FINALLY poured gold!
One of the most frustrating things about RED is that they don't rush to put out any news, even if its very much awaited by investors, seems they have no great realisation of how it might affect (positively) the share price. While I may be completely wrong, but I wouldn't mind betting that they have coincided the gold pour with the board being onsite, and thus will inform the market once all the i's are dotted and t's crossed. It really frustrates me!!!
But at least the whole market is ready to move, with gold up, all major overseas markets having a scorcher overnight, and some of the overseas gloom forgotten for now (strange how things can change so dramatically in 24 hours!).
I'm waiting RED . . .
Hi all RED team.
Boggo you are absolutely correct in saying, the profit takers moved in at the start of Dec, whilst the rest of us waited for the chairman to come to the rescue. And of course, we are still waiting and waiting. If it wasn't for a great night on oversees markets, and a rise in gold price, RED would be continuing its spiral down wards, IMO.
Beatle they never rush to put out much anticipated news, as we all know. The market has been waiting almost a month, in fact 9 months if you want to be technical. ( But nature isn't something any of us can really predict.) Its just getting to a point that its so frustrating, nearly to the point of selling. And i never thought id say that. I will hold out until this pour eventuates, ( if and when it does, ) then i will be seriously looking at my portfolio.
Another thing i cant understand is almost everyone on the board have shares themselves. Wouldn't you think they would at least try to protect their own investment.
Boggo you are absolutely correct in saying, the profit takers moved in at the start of Dec, whilst the rest of us waited for the chairman to come to the rescue. And of course, we are still waiting and waiting. If it wasn't for a great night on oversees markets, and a rise in gold price, RED would be continuing its spiral down wards, IMO.
Beatle they never rush to put out much anticipated news, as we all know. The market has been waiting almost a month, in fact 9 months if you want to be technical. ( But nature isn't something any of us can really predict.) Its just getting to a point that its so frustrating, nearly to the point of selling. And i never thought id say that. I will hold out until this pour eventuates, ( if and when it does, ) then i will be seriously looking at my portfolio.
Another thing i cant understand is almost everyone on the board have shares themselves. Wouldn't you think they would at least try to protect their own investment.
Hi Moit, yes we share the frustration about getting that news we have been waiting for.
As for their shareholdings, its really only the MD has a big enough holding, and he really isn't much driven by the share price at all! I recall many years ago he told me he never looks at the daily share price (that might have changed nowadays but I know he is not focused on that at all). I think their combined view is that getting the project up and running is the priority and the share price will look after itself (and I think that its quite naive and definitely frustrating).
I do want to emphasise though, that whilst I do have qite a big holding and have held for a long time, I don't believe that the current price, or anywhere near the current price, is anything like what it can get to, subject to the gold price and them achieving anything like the base case feasibility study forecasts. Thus I wouldn't suggest you get too focused on looking to exit soon after the first gold pour, I think this share price will grow once they bed down the project properly, and start to give some more widespread promotion to the market. And no, I am not emotional about it, when I think we have seen something like the real project performance and corresponding share price performance then I too will sell down somewhat, but that's still a while away from its current situation!
As for their shareholdings, its really only the MD has a big enough holding, and he really isn't much driven by the share price at all! I recall many years ago he told me he never looks at the daily share price (that might have changed nowadays but I know he is not focused on that at all). I think their combined view is that getting the project up and running is the priority and the share price will look after itself (and I think that its quite naive and definitely frustrating).
I do want to emphasise though, that whilst I do have qite a big holding and have held for a long time, I don't believe that the current price, or anywhere near the current price, is anything like what it can get to, subject to the gold price and them achieving anything like the base case feasibility study forecasts. Thus I wouldn't suggest you get too focused on looking to exit soon after the first gold pour, I think this share price will grow once they bed down the project properly, and start to give some more widespread promotion to the market. And no, I am not emotional about it, when I think we have seen something like the real project performance and corresponding share price performance then I too will sell down somewhat, but that's still a while away from its current situation!
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FYI, the reason for the gold price drop:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=677154#post677154
May be a good idea to buy RED during these lows.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=677154#post677154
May be a good idea to buy RED during these lows.
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My interpretation of the update earlier this month was that they didn't release this update until they could report that the issues were all under control or resolved already, which in my mind is great for preserving the share price but probably also bordering on misrepresentation as some analysts may be able to gain info on site issues which are not conveyed to greater market.
It seems that management are not able to get the site sorted and this is a major issue in my mind. How can you invest in stocks like this with millions of dollars when they miss dates and never release any information ? How can they have problems in the gravity circuit - it sounds technically admissible to someone who doesn't know much....why run questionable ore through - no-one on site knew better ? How will they run this mine ?
Hard on the nerves and tiring to boot. Better stocks elsewhere and technically it's consolidating at 1.90, as per August. Perhaps when things start happening the sp will improve. I speak from a great wealth of ignorance and still hold for some reason!
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And this is why tech/a, myself and many others keep banging on being pro-active with your own money rather than being dependant on this type of management to determine the future of your funds.
Holding on and hoping when it is on the way down is not investing, its gambling on the hope that it all comes off.
Hit and run folks, ride it up and bail out with the smart money, its not Berkshire Hathaway or Microsoft, its a 18 cent stock that has had a consolidation.
If you think it is still good then do it all over again when it turns up again unless one of the other 1900+ stocks are providing a better opportunity, you will sleep better, believe me.
PS. I am long again as of yesterday (20th) with smaller holding this time and a tight stop.
MrJeff, your comment .."..I speak from a great wealth of ignorance and still hold for some reason!".
I consider my knowledge of RED and general technical knowledge is quite extensive, and certainly not of great ignorance, but I AGREE with you wholeheartedly! As I've mentioned in some other posts, RED has been a real frustration for me at times, despite me continuing to hold (ALL my shares).
BUT I believe that once they sort out the technical issues onsite this company has the potential to move considerably higher, for a few different reasons:
1. It will be a long life, low cost gold producer. The resource is considerable, the grade is very good for an open pit (in the early years), and the operating cost base should always remain an advantage due to the costs of labour (and if mains power is used it is very low cost per unit);
2. The plant is high quality (just the bugs need to sorted out, if there are any left!);
3. The shareholder base is stacked with insto's and funds who have a relatively high cost of entry and bought with an expectation of it moving far higher and have the potential to support it to that level;
4. The exploration potential is substantial, and hardly touched due to their focus on Siana.
But geez its frustration personified!
I consider my knowledge of RED and general technical knowledge is quite extensive, and certainly not of great ignorance, but I AGREE with you wholeheartedly! As I've mentioned in some other posts, RED has been a real frustration for me at times, despite me continuing to hold (ALL my shares).
BUT I believe that once they sort out the technical issues onsite this company has the potential to move considerably higher, for a few different reasons:
1. It will be a long life, low cost gold producer. The resource is considerable, the grade is very good for an open pit (in the early years), and the operating cost base should always remain an advantage due to the costs of labour (and if mains power is used it is very low cost per unit);
2. The plant is high quality (just the bugs need to sorted out, if there are any left!);
3. The shareholder base is stacked with insto's and funds who have a relatively high cost of entry and bought with an expectation of it moving far higher and have the potential to support it to that level;
4. The exploration potential is substantial, and hardly touched due to their focus on Siana.
But geez its frustration personified!
Well, we all thought this would be a very merry Xmas as far as RED goes.
How wrong were we ??
Another day goes by, then another week. Then a month. Still nothing...
Maybe they should have said originally, gold pour will be by years end. Then if they happened to pour gold prior, it could have surprised the market, and everyone would have been happy. ( Hing sight is a wonderful thing. )
Yes they have a few teething issues with Siana, id just wish they took that into consideration a few months ago when they were announcing key dates. We all knew it was bound to happen, surely they did as well...
Anyhow just another frustrating day as a RED shareholder. Maybe in the new year things will start to improve.
Merry Xmas to you all.
How wrong were we ??
Another day goes by, then another week. Then a month. Still nothing...
Maybe they should have said originally, gold pour will be by years end. Then if they happened to pour gold prior, it could have surprised the market, and everyone would have been happy. ( Hing sight is a wonderful thing. )
Yes they have a few teething issues with Siana, id just wish they took that into consideration a few months ago when they were announcing key dates. We all knew it was bound to happen, surely they did as well...
Anyhow just another frustrating day as a RED shareholder. Maybe in the new year things will start to improve.
Merry Xmas to you all.