Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

US Inflation Rate

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Knobby22 said:
We are talking about USA inflation and what will happen.
Again I will say that it appears the Fed is going to keep interest rates up too high too long and the USA will have a very hard landing.

Trump really has nothing to do with this. And i don't really want to talk about who the next incumbent is. It is about what we should be doing in investment terms now. I didn't bring him up.
Even if Trump is the saviour, he won't be there till the end of the year.
Click to expand...
Fully agree, and yes with interest rates
About "I didn't bring him up." Aka Trump...
I had to scroll back and was ready to apologize..but no, it is definitively in the post I replied to .
Show you how polarising he is if he inserts himself in your own writing wo you being aware.😉
He is no silver bullet, and too old now but letting the existing team in control is a sure catastrophic collapse..all part of the plan..and hyperinflation in the US is part of the plan..
So do we fight the plan?
Better even, can we fight the plan and win?
And if you agree with me that we can not, how do we handle that for our selfish own self interest ?
 
If USA interest rates cuts take place on April then it will be averted and there will be a soft landing.

I do think some of the board are wanting a hard landing for various reasons but only some.

I am not doing anything yet except reducing risk. If a hard landing looks like happening then bonds will be good as they will be revalued as interest rates drop back to near 0.
 
This can't be good for Biden's re election chances.
I imagine trump will be showing as many ads as possible with this chart as its centrepiece.
Mick

1712803993521.png
 
Knobby22 said:
We are talking about USA inflation and what will happen.
Again I will say that it appears the Fed is going to keep interest rates up too high too long and the USA will have a very hard landing.

Trump really has nothing to do with this. And i don't really want to talk about who the next incumbent is. It is about what we should be doing in investment terms now. I didn't bring him up.
Even if Trump is the saviour, he won't be there till the end of the year.
Click to expand...
actually it would be January 2025 , January 6 ( or some day close ) , if there is a change of president ( there other minor candidates )
BUT depending on who is selected ( apart from the incumbent ) the market might move savagely in late November

paving the way for a bleak December ( market-wise ) or a big Santa rally

i suspect the Fed to jawbone for as long and hard as it can
 
www.kitco.com

Gold price rallies to 6-week high after tamer U.S. inflation data

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com
"Gold price rallies to 6-week high after tamer U.S. inflation data"

"A few analysts are even thinking the Fed could cut U.S. interest rates at
its next FOMC meeting on July 30-31."​
​
 

Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree​


Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

hmmm well Berkshire didn't seem to need the cash ( it was sitting on more than $100 billion last i saw )

is there a BIG buy in the headlights after all Berkshire does do BIG complicated deals for selected distressed companies

it might be more interesting to see where Berkshire parks the cash ( apart from the short-term money market )
 
US Core Inflation data is due out on Wednesday (NY time).
This will have a signifcant impact on market attitudes.
the question is , will it be manipulated like so much of the rest of the US data is, or will it be a relatively accurate picture of what is happening in US prices?
Now that a change in administration is about to be reset, what will the existing administration mandarins do to make life difficult for the incoming administration?
This also applies to the next round of BLS employment data, Jolts anf continuing unemployment data.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
US Core Inflation data is due out on Wednesday (NY time).
This will have a signifcant impact on market attitudes.
the question is , will it be manipulated like so much of the rest of the US data is, or will it be a relatively accurate picture of what is happening in US prices?
Now that a change in administration is about to be reset, what will the existing administration mandarins do to make life difficult for the incoming administration?
This also applies to the next round of BLS employment data, Jolts anf continuing unemployment data.
Mick
Click to expand...
the recent official data has been so unreliable i was surprised Gerald Ford wasn't elected as President , but here we are in a global crisis that only individuals imagine to be real

where to after February 2025 ( give them time to seat the new faces on the deck-chairs ) wait and see if Ron Paul is placed anywhere effective ( apparently Elon Musk is keen for Dr. Ron to introduce some changes )

ALSO many of the changes made after January will take more than five years to gain traction so watch for signs of DJT's successor ( it officially can't be Musk , the President is supposed to be a US-born citizen , and Elon is honest about his birthright )

has Trump ( and appointees ) have the courage to produce the REAL data ( not surveys , estimates and polls ) , if so the US may be worthy of investment cash

remember Trump might have won , but the Republicans have a 'swamp-creature ' infestation issue as well ( not just the bureaucracy )
 
US PPI data out shows a jump in monthly and year on year prices.
Most of the increase comes from serices rather than goods, a consistent theme for the last six months.
And once again, the previous months core PCI was revised higher from 2.8% to 2.9%.
Inflation is just not going away.
Mick

From Zero hedge

1731625905358.png

1731625571240.png
1731625752148.png
 
Jerome Powell must be scratching his head.
After seeing a serious fall in inflation, sufficient for him to drop US interest rates by 50BPS, inflation has remained sticky and now threatens to break out again, after the biggest MOM increase since last April, before any rate cuts were introduced.
The chances of another interest rate cut are rapidly diminishing, especially as all the experts say that Tarriffs will increase inflation.
But then the experts also said that the inflation that has been around since COVID was only Transitory.
From Zero hedge
1733947263905.png
1733947338263.png
 
The US inflation intially fell to an annual low of 0.3 in early 2020 as the affects of covid closed down economies and prevented people spending, but themn the restrictions on transport caused a spike in inflation that continued rising until it peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
It has fallen since then .
1739567724183.png
The first rate rise came in March 2022, so within 3 months inflation started falling.
1739568036582.png
Since Jan 1st 2023, the US FED has removed in excess of USD 2Trillion in liquidity from the market.
That has got to have had a big impact on the inflation figures, perhaps as much as the rate settings.

1739566240961.png
 
mullokintyre said:
The US inflation intially fell to an annual low of 0.3 in early 2020 as the affects of covid closed down economies and prevented people spending, but themn the restrictions on transport caused a spike in inflation that continued rising until it peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
It has fallen since then .
View attachment 193311
The first rate rise came in March 2022, so within 3 months inflation started falling.
View attachment 193312
Since Jan 1st 2023, the US FED has removed in excess of USD 2Trillion in liquidity from the market.
That has got to have had a big impact on the inflation figures, perhaps as much as the rate settings.

View attachment 193310
Click to expand...
Polling indicates that most US citizens are now expecting higher inflation.
Low growth is expected by most financial commentators.
I don't think last months rise in inflation was an aberration and the new tariffs won't assist.

From Steve Bartholomeus today:

The Conference Board consumer confidence survey, issued on Tuesday, showed US consumer confidence has fallen more this month than at any time in the past three and a half years. The board’s index fell 7 points in the February survey, the third straight monthly decline.

Consumers are pessimistic about labour market conditions as well as the outlook for their finances and business conditions. There’s a growing proportion who expect a recession within the next year.
 
Last edited:
CPI figures out in the USA overnight were somewhat benign.
They came in below most of the pundits exprctations, with both goods and services inflation falling.
The question is , will the tariff tit for tat wars ruin the chance of killing off inflation?
Mick
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