Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
- Joined
- 11 January 2016
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summarising from elsewhere:
Over the last 12 months, there have been dramatic increases in interest rates, combined with Quantitative Tightening, combined with a regional banking crisis, combined with a commercial real estate crash, combined with recessionary conditions in Europe, combined with a property crash in China, not to mention a collapse in business and consumer confidence, a contraction in credit and a significant tightening in lending conditions and a decline in money supply.
And did this lead to a U.S recession in 2023?
U.S Q3 GDP was revised up to 5.2% from 4.9%, with the American consumer still resilient.
Can this being sustained into 2024?
There is mounting evidence that the U.S economy has softened appreciably in Q4, and, notably, that the U.S consumer is spending less.
The Beige Book was released this week.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202311.htm
It was weak and indicative of an economy that was slowing down.
- Six of the Federal Reserve Districts reported a slowdown in economic activity.
- Two said economic conditions were flat to slightly weaker.
- Four reported modest growth.
Throughout the report there were scattered mentions of a weakening in consumer spending, most notably in lower income groups. The evidence of consumer stress is widespread with credit card and auto delinquencies rising sharply .
Over the last 12 months, there have been dramatic increases in interest rates, combined with Quantitative Tightening, combined with a regional banking crisis, combined with a commercial real estate crash, combined with recessionary conditions in Europe, combined with a property crash in China, not to mention a collapse in business and consumer confidence, a contraction in credit and a significant tightening in lending conditions and a decline in money supply.
And did this lead to a U.S recession in 2023?
U.S Q3 GDP was revised up to 5.2% from 4.9%, with the American consumer still resilient.
Can this being sustained into 2024?
There is mounting evidence that the U.S economy has softened appreciably in Q4, and, notably, that the U.S consumer is spending less.
The Beige Book was released this week.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202311.htm
It was weak and indicative of an economy that was slowing down.
- Six of the Federal Reserve Districts reported a slowdown in economic activity.
- Two said economic conditions were flat to slightly weaker.
- Four reported modest growth.
Throughout the report there were scattered mentions of a weakening in consumer spending, most notably in lower income groups. The evidence of consumer stress is widespread with credit card and auto delinquencies rising sharply .
